It’s becoming clear that 2013 is set to be a bloody year for local security forces in Afghanistan. While nato troops are experiencing less frequent attacks than in previous years, local government forces are taking a beating from terrorists that nato has been trying to stamp out for over 11 years. The increasing Taliban attacks come as nato troops are working to shed their responsibilities in the nation.

The main supplier of troops to Afghanistan is the United States. With 2014 set as a tentative date for the majority of U.S. troops to leave, speculation over the number of troops that will remain continues. According to Douglas Lute, an assistant to the U.S. president on Pakistan and Afghanistan, there will be fewer than 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in the country.

The comments, made in February at nato headquarters in Brussels, were the first official confirmation that the U.S. has planned for a drastically limited presence in Afghanistan in the future and will place more responsibility on other forces in the region. The new foreign policy is a game changer, not only for the 60,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan, but also for the government forces and the other nato members remaining after 2014.

The chief concern for America’s allies is that when the U.S. leaves, the Taliban will overrun those who remain behind. Senior nato officials have acknowledged the possibility of the Afghans collapsing under the weight of more Taliban attacks. Lt. Gen. Nick Carter, deputy chief of nato’s International Security Assistance Force, said, “It would be unforgivable if we allowed the gains of the last three years to be lost because we are not able to provide the Afghans with the support to take this through into 2014.” But it is more than the last three years at risk of being wasted—it is the collective effort of thousands of servicemen and women over the past 11 years.

A rigorous training program has been under way to help the Afghan security forces shoulder the burden of dealing with the Taliban attacks. In the north, Germany trains troops and heads up the Regional Command Center. Italy is training troops in the west. In the south and east, the U.S. is training and assisting government forces. Post 2014, only 5,000 U.S. troops will be dedicated to training missions. The others will be divided between eliminating terrorist camps and cells, and protecting U.S. facilities such as the embassy.

With most U.S. troops gone, the Afghan forces will be without the support they need to combat terrorists in mountainous areas. Without air support for example, troop movement slows, strategic positions can no longer be backed up in the event of an attack, and medical evacuations must be by ground. This will affect all troops in the nation. Even other coalition forces rely on the U.S. to supply helicopters for medical extractions. The non-U.S. forces will be forced to increase their own presence or risk higher fatalities themselves. The U.S. is gambling that they won’t buckle.

There are already signs that a post-2014 Afghan force will be overwhelmed by terrorists. The first quarter of this year has seen a 47 percent increase in Taliban attacks over the same period last year. The number of attacks against Afghans has skyrocketed—and bear in mind that there is still a considerable security force in Afghanistan at the moment. As the U.S. withdraws, it will continue to close down its bases or give them to Afghan forces. Attacks that were once launched against U.S. bases will then be carried out on lesser-equipped, poorer-trained Afghans.

With over 80 percent of U.S. bases already handed over or closed, the Afghan forces are left exposed, out on the front lines. It is easier for Taliban and al Qaeda forces to move around undetected because the U.S. is no longer watching. It is little wonder that the quality of attacks the Taliban has carried out this year is higher. With each attack, there is a consistently high body count. U.S. forces are doing well this year because they are consolidating their forces, making themselves a smaller target to hit. Meanwhile, the Afghans are spread thin across the country and told not only to hold their positions, but also to actively remove Taliban forces. Much of the fighting has moved into the mountains that run along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pakistan acts as an excellent refuge for the Taliban. The insecure border has led to easy transportation of supplies. Pakistani towns have become command centers for Taliban forces. Pakistan doesn’t have the strength to deal with the Taliban inhabiting its western provinces. So the terrorist groups will continue their cross-border interactions unimpeded. Even if Afghan forces could drive the Taliban to the border, what then? The terrorists retreat to Pakistan, rearm and come back. Pakistan is seen as a key player in ending the war in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, relations between the neighboring countries are far from civil.

Pakistan blames Afghanistan for failing to curb the violence, and continues to express support for the Taliban having an official role in the government of Afghanistan. Recently it has supported a project intended to establish a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar. The office was to be the staging ground for a political arm of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, knows that his own power is threatened. He is open to deals with the Taliban, although the Taliban refuses to speak directly with him. When the U.S. is gone, and the Taliban are back in full force, Mr. Karzai may wish they were on better terms.

While Pakistan is offering the Taliban refuge in the east, Iran continues to meddle from the west.

Before the U.S. occupation, relations between Iran and Afghanistan were strained. While the Taliban was in charge, Shiite Muslims were treated harshly, and some Iranian diplomats were even executed. Now that the Taliban is out of power, Iran has had the chance to strengthen ties with the Afghans. Iran has made sure its support for the Afghan people is well known. It has played an active role building infrastructure, energy, economic, medical and cultural aspects of life in Afghanistan.

Initially, Iran supported the U.S. in the overthrow of the Sunni Taliban. Since then, its tune has changed, and Iran has been playing both sides. Since 2001, Iran has come under increasing pressure from the international community to halt its nuclear program. It also became wedged in between two American conflicts, one in Iraq and one in Afghanistan. Iran now has a vested interest in undermining the U.S. in the region and is doing so by destabilizing the nations where the U.S. is working.

Iran is now weighing the options of whether it is better to have a U.S.-influenced ally on its border or to return to the old days of Taliban rule. There have been reports of Iran training Taliban forces in Iran.

The Trumpet has warned what will happen to Afghanistan if the U.S. withdraws. The risk is that Afghanistan will ally with Iran. Read our article “Iran Woos America’s Allies as U.S. Troops Exit Region” to understand the danger. Then read “Why Germany Is Staying in Afghanistan” to see how Europe is determined to prevent such an outcome.