As the June 14 Iranian presidential election draws closer, speculation remains over who will take the seat that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has filled for the past eight years. Those who would hope the Iranian people will rally to bring change to Iran may be disappointed. The truth is, the decision doesn’t rest with the Iranian people. It rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

When outgoing President Ahmadinejad steps down, he will leave office on less than favorable terms with the ayatollah. The relationship has soured slowly for a number of years, beginning with the president’s reelection in 2009. Constitutional law prevents a president from running for a third term in office. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s second term in office has seen him step out from under the guiding hand of the ayatollah as he has no longer needed to worry about public opinion. There have been a number of instances when the president has defied the ayatollah in recent months. In February, the ayatollah warned that anyone bickering publicly about the election would be guilty of treason. President Ahmadinejad defied the order by getting into a heated debate with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani.

Now the system being guided by the ayatollah will attempt to establish a new puppet president who will be more inclined to do as he is told, much like Ahmadinejad was in his first term.

It is certainly within the ayatollah’s means to elect the president of his choice. That might seem unlikely, considering there were over 680 contenders for the office. However, that enormous conglomerate of contenders has been pared down to just a few. The responsibility of selecting the few contenders fell to the Guardian Council. This group is comprised of 12 clerics. Six of them have been directly appointed by the ayatollah himself; the other six were appointed by the judiciary and approved by parliament, both of which are heavily influenced by the ayatollah.

The Guardian Council is the most influential body within Iran. It approves all bills that go through parliament and has the ability to bar candidates from running in elections for parliament. More importantly for the upcoming election, it can veto candidates for the presidency.

The Iranian-owned Press tv quoted Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei as saying the council “does not work based on numbers, but based on criteria.” So if council members believe a candidate suits them—or suits the ayatollah—then they will allow him to run for office. Those who are pro-ayatollah have a significant advantage over the rest. From hundreds of candidates, only eight will run for office.

For President Ahmadinejad, getting his own candidate into office was a long shot from the start. The man widely alleged to be Mr. Ahmedinejad’s choice was Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei. A close ally of the president, Mr. Mashaei was slated to be one of two controversial candidates. Unfortunately for the president and Mr. Mashaei, the Guardian Council blocked him from entering the race. He is widely known for his controversial religious views, which have drawn him a lot of rebuke from clerics. He is subsequently barred, and Mr. Ahmedinejad’s best chance of choosing a successor is gone.

The other man who looked to be a good contender was former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The 78-year-old announced his candidacy late in the race and received plenty of public support. As a remnant of the revolutionary days and the fourth president of Iran, Mr. Rafsanjani seemed to be a fan of the people. However, he too was not so popular with the ayatollah and the Guardian Council. He was barred after the council ruled he was too old to run for office.

Critics of the elderly contender also accused him of fueling the riots in Tehran following the 2009 election. Because Mr. Rafsanjani didn’t condemn the rioters, he is now accused of being a part of their movement.

Mr. Mashaei and Mr. Rafsanjani were widely considered the best chance for change within the regime. With both men removed, the ayatollah will pick who will be the next puppet president.

Even if the influence of the Guardian Council isn’t enough to swing the votes, the ayatollah also has the Central Election Board, which will oversee the election. It too is under the sway of the ayatollah.

With the election over three weeks away, there is still time for plenty of debate over who will take office. However, there is one contender that stands out at the moment: Saeed Jalili. He is currently Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator with the international community. Mr. Jalili has refused to make any concessions in nuclear talks, drawing condemnation from nations such as the United States for his stalling. He has allowed Iran’s nuclear program to continue forward.

If Jalili is elected into office, he will face tough economic problems. Sanctions are crippling the economy, but are not stopping the nuclear program. If Jalili does take office, there is unlikely to be considerable change. Under Ahmadinejad, the nuclear program couldn’t have gone ahead without the support of the ayatollah. With a newly appointed president who is more tightly connected to the ayatollah’s political circle, things will be unlikely to change.

Jalili aside, with all opposition removed, one might expect Iran to return to its 2009 state, when protesters took to the streets to contest the reelection of President Ahmadinejad. After a brief moment in the world headlines, the movement was crushed by the Iranian government. Dozens of activists were killed and hundreds were arrested.

Rioting on this scale is unlikely to happen again. Many of the leaders of opposition groups that united after the last elections, such as the Green Movement, were arrested and are still under house arrest today. The government isn’t taking any chances. Authorities have moved to lock down the youth headquarters of Rafsanjani’s youth supporters. Lessons were learned from the 2009 rioting, and the government won’t be so easily caught unawares this time around.

The ayatollah has so far steered the election with a typical iron grip. Dissent is rarely tolerated for long in Iran. The barring of outspoken presidential candidates, the arrest of protesters, the steering of elections in order to obtain a puppet president—all of it boils down to the fact that things are not about to get better with the election of a new president.

Whoever the new president is, he will remain firmly under the control of Ayatollah Khamenei. And for those who might still hope for change, look at what the ayatollah has called on the voters to do (keeping in mind that he holds powerful sway over much of the population). In one speech leading up to the selection of candidates, he told voters to choose a candidate who will “move the country forward in a pace similar to the current one or even faster.”

That means the same policies, the same belligerence, the same radical ideals and the same destructive goals. Looking at the way the election race is playing out, it would appear Iran is heading down the same course as under Ahmadinejad.

This prospect is backed up by Bible prophecy. Iran is the head of the prophesied king of the south (Daniel 11:40). With Iran at the head, this bloc will “push” at the king of the north, a unified Europe. One way that Iran may push is through its attempt to gain nuclear weapons. The longer Iran works to obtain the bomb, the more of a threat it becomes to Europe and the world. With the situation remaining the way it is in Iran, that time could be on us very soon. The election of another puppet president, one even more in line with the radical ayatollah, will be one more step toward that eventuality.

If you want to understand the dramatic events that will center around Iran, read The King of the South. It is free and will help you to understand the catastrophes to come.