Unsustainable Afghanistan

Aref Karimi/AFP/Getty Images

Unsustainable Afghanistan

Is the Afghan military really ready to keep the peace?

The weekly death toll for the Afghan military is frequently over 100, according to reports published September 2. The vast discrepancy between what the United States claims it is leaving behind in the Afghanistan mess, and the reality of the situation borders on obscene.

Gen. Joseph Dunford, the senior U.S. commander in Afghanistan, told the Guardian newspaper, “I’m not assuming that those casualties are sustainable.” The U.S. government is training the Afghan forces to take the lead in all security and tactical operations when countering the Taliban. The cold hard truth is that even with U.S. military backing, the Afghan forces are being overwhelmed by their adversaries.

When the U.S. moved its focus from combat support to training in June, the Afghan police death toll began to climb as more Afghans faced the front lines of the battlefield. While more casualties would be expected for the Afghans with this change in tactics, a death toll jumping to more than 100 per week means that an independent Afghan Army is hardly a viable option at the moment.

The death toll is high in spite of U.S. support. Washington is trying to negotiate a deal whereby U.S. troops will remain beyond the withdrawal date at the start of 2014. But the deal could falter due to the U.S.’s frosty relations with the Afghan government over supposedly high civilian deaths at the hands of American soldiers. If the deal fails to materialize, the U.S. will pull out the last vestiges of its power there and leave the Afghan military to face the Taliban with minimal input from the Americans.

The Afghan forces currently consist of 350,000 troops. This year has seen a 24 percent rise in civilian casualties in the nation, compared to 2012. The secretary general’s special representative in Afghanistan, Jan Kubis, stated: “The situation of civilians in the country and conflict-related civilian casualties are, indeed, not going in the right direction. On the contrary, the situation has worsened.” United Nations figures show that between January and June, 3,092 civilians have been killed in the nationwide conflict.

The Afghan Interior Ministry has said that 1,792 police officers have been killed since March. With these terrible figures and their deleterious effect on the morale of troops, the Afghan Defense Ministry has decided to stop publishing monthly death tolls.

The decision to hide from the truth is not only a trait of the Afghan military, but also of the U.S. forces. Despite the Taliban being roughly 20,000 in number, the war in Afghanistan has not routed them. If the U.S. goes ahead with the planned withdrawal, the Taliban appears set to reverse the victories that the U.S. and coalition forces have won since the 2001 invasion.

The war in Afghanistan saw a surge in troop numbers during President Obama’s first term. Washington hoped to install democracy and withdraw, leaving a self-sustaining country. The U.S. clings so tightly and desperately to this ideal that it fails to see the truth of the matter. The idea of democracy in Afghanistan is only being held together by the grit and determination of U.S. troops. Take them away and you are left with an ill-prepared police force, and a resurgent Taliban that is stronger than ever.

The Trumpet has long warned of the dangers of a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. Continue to watch as the U.S. detaches itself, leaving the way open for other nations such as Germany, which is more concerned with securing the region for economic benefit, to take control.

This is why the withdrawal affects you personally. Many Bible prophecies tied to the Middle East indicate that the U.S. will not be a dominant power in the region much longer. Daniel 11:40 speaks of a European power fighting against the Islamic king of the south (for more on this subject, request a copy of our booklet The King of the South). The departure of the U.S. from the region is a step toward the fulfillment of this prophecy, and is an important factor in bringing about more earth-shaking prophecies whose epicenters lie in the Middle East.

To understand more of that immediate future, read History and Prophecy of the Middle East. Then you will recognize where events are leading in the region, and will better see the incredible future that lies just ahead for mankind.