America is in trouble for its spying for one simple reason—it broke the golden rule of espionage: Don’t get caught.

No one in any position of power is really outraged or furious about the National Security Agency (nsa) listening in to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s telephone or gathering information on French phone calls. They may be a little surprised that the nsa thought it could get away with it, but that’s all.

Governments act in national self-interest. It’s in their interest to find out what other governments—even allies—are planning. So they spy. Europe’s leaders aren’t naïve; they know this. In fact, France and Germany are probably spying on America and President Barack Obama in as much detail as they can, without breaking the golden rule themselves.

The former head of France’s domestic intelligence agency, Bernad Squarcini, confirmed this. “The agencies know perfectly well that every country, even when they cooperate on anti-terrorism, spies on its allies,” he told Le Figaro. “The Americans spy on us, on the commercial and industrial level, like we spy on them, because it’s in the national interest to defend our businesses. No one is a dupe.”

Espionage unquestionably goes both ways. One of America’s diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks said that “France is the evil empire in stealing technology, and Germany knows this.”

Chancellor Merkel may, privately, be quite pleased at the revelation. Her government was facing some awkward questions about how much the German security services cooperated with the nsa. Those questions now have been all but forgotten; Merkel is now a victim of spying. She can join in the popular outrage without looking hypocritical.

That’s why Mrs. Merkel has played up the symbolic gestures—summoning the U.S. ambassador, for example—while refusing to take any steps that would cause any actual harm to the U.S./German relationship. Merkel has said she doesn’t want to stop negotiations toward a transatlantic free trade deal, and she did not say that she wants to end agreements with the U.S. on exchanging financial data.

But Germany and France will now follow their national interest in gaining as much advantage as possible from America’s slip-up. After talks with EU leaders, Chancellor Merkel announced that France and Germany wanted to sign a “no spying” agreement with the U.S. by the end of the year. They want other EU nations eventually to have the opportunity to join this relationship.

The U.S. doesn’t join such agreements lightly—it has them only with its closest allies: Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada—in a group known as the “Five Eyes.” France and Germany now have an excellent excuse to demand to be brought into this exclusive alliance.

Europe is going to milk this spying scandal to get as many concessions from the U.S. as it can. Nations like Russia, China and Iran will use it to try and make America sound like a great evil empire.

So, no outrage, but probably a lot of sniggering.

The consequences for America, though, are not a laughing matter. Its global reputation has taken a hit. It will be harder for it to spy on Europe. The U.S. may even be pressured into inviting French and German intelligence agencies close into the heart of the American intelligence community.

Across Europe, support is growing for governments to do more to shield information from America. Germany is even talking about building its own internet.

America doesn’t need to worry about outraged European leaders—that’s just theatrics. But the losses to America’s intelligence-gathering are real.

The scandal will probably not trigger a great split between America and Europe—Europe just will trust America less. However, if the EU succeeds in pushing its way into the “Five Eyes” alliance, it would have the exact opposite effect: Europe and America would be closer than ever before.

The Trumpet has long warned that the real danger to America lies in trusting Europe too much. The spy scandal could lead America further in this direction.

For more information on why America needs to be wary of Germany and Europe, read our latest print edition cover story, “We’re All Falling in Love With Germany.”