Iran Undermines Nuke Deal, Yet Funds Released Anyway
The United States released $1 billion worth of frozen Iranian funds in the month of April. According to the Joint Plan struck in Geneva on November 24 between Iran and the P5+1 nations, Iran is being rewarded with cash over the course of six months as it proves it is making determined steps toward dismantling its nuclear program.
The cash released in April came in two lump sums. The first batch of $550 million was released on April 10, and the final $450 million was released on April 15. Although these funds should indicate Iran is complying implicitly with the Geneva deal, they actually are an excellent example of America’s tiptoeing relationship with the Iranian regime.
The funds reveal America’s policy of “don’t provoke/don’t upset.”
The second cash release was supposed to be “contingent on the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming that Iran has fulfilled all of its commitments,” according to a document released by the White House on January 16. Those commitments include the complete dilution of Iran’s near-20 percent enriched uranium by April 15.
Since Iran received the latest $450 million, we can safely assume the Iranians completed their end of the deal and eliminated the entire stockpile. Right? Wrong.
According to Reuters, the iaea says Iran has only cut its key uranium stockpiles by 75 percent. Nonetheless, the U.S. released the funds. Near enough is seemingly good enough. While the 75 percent is a good sign, it doesn’t excuse Tehran from larger responsibilities.
What the U.S. has is an untethered horse: Unable to restrain the Persian stallion, the U.S. is offering carrots to keep it placated. If it stops offering carrots, nothing will stop the horse from bolting. And Iran will bolt if the financial incentive is removed. The U.S. barely kept Iran at the negotiating table to sign the Joint Plan. Now Washington has to entice it into a long-term agreement.
To complete the Joint Plan, there are still three separate installments of $550 million worth of frozen assets to be returned to Iran by July 20. The last $550 million will be contingent on Iran fulfilling all its commitments outlined in the Joint Plan. But will America withhold the funds if Iran hasn’t completed those goals? The April 15 payment suggests it will not.
In fact, the closer we come to the end of the six month deal, the more politically desperate the U.S. will become to keep Iran at the negotiating table post-July. Remember, the current deal is only an interim deal; it is designed to pave the way for a more long-term deal. The U.S. can “pave the way” all it wants, but Iran still has to choose to walk it.
Watch as Washington continues to do all it can to persuade Tehran to stay at the negotiating table and not run back to its nuclear program. America will offer carrot after carrot while turning a blind eye to Iran’s shortcomings. It will sustain a relationship where the U.S. keeps fulfilling its end of the bargain, even when Iran does not.
But what happens when we run out of carrots? What happens if the Persian stallion decides it has had enough?
To understand the full implication of the Joint Plan and where it is leading, read “The Geneva Deal Is Worse Than You Know.” Hint: It is not leading to a nuclear disarmed Iran.