Dozens of protesters stormed the presidential headquarters in Georgia’s Moscow-backed breakaway state of Abkhazia on May 27, following demonstrations by thousands against the alleged corruption of the state’s pro-Russian government. The protesters vandalized the facility and left only after de facto President Alexander Ankvab had agreed to meet with their leader, Raul Khadjimba.

The turmoil comes amid rising tensions between Russia and the nation of Ukraine, which, like Georgia, was part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991. The tensions in Abkhazia have led to speculation over whether new leadership there could try to steer the state away from its Russian alignment, or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin may decide to transform Abkhazia into an official part of Russia once again, as he did with the Crimean Peninsula back in March.

Whatever the outcome of the protests, Michael Cecire, a Black Sea regional analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, says the world should not expect any shift from Abkhazia away from its steep tilt toward Russia. “It may be [an] anti-regime coup,” he said, but onlookers are “highly unlikely to see [a] pro-West turn.”

Mr. Cecire, who is a member of the Georgian Institute of Politics, says that even if Khadjimba ascends to power, Abkhazia would remain aligned with Moscow. Shortly after the protesters stormed the government building, he tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/mhikaric/status/471367578494197760

Abkhazia broke away from Georgian authority in a 1992-1993 war. In 2008, after Russia had fought a five-day war with Georgia, Moscow recognized Abkhazia—and Georgia’s other breakaway region of South Ossetia—as independent and boosted Russian power over the regions. Only a handful of other nations have recognized the two regions’ declarations of independence, and Georgia insists they remain parts of Georgia.

Just after that 2008 war, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry made this forecast:

Russia’s attack on Georgia in August marks the beginning of a dangerous new era in history. This was the first military strike of a rising Asian superpower—and there will be more! … Today, you have [Western leaders] trying to also bring Georgia and Ukraine into nato. I don’t believe Russia will ever allow that to happen. … Will a crisis occur over Ukraine? That area is the breadbasket of Russia, and surely it is willing to wage war over that as well.

Time has proven that prediction stunningly accurate. To understand Mr. Flurry’s take on the ongoing Ukraine crisis and what to expect for Abkhazia and other former Soviet nations and regions, read “The Crimean Crisis Is Reshaping Europe.”