Iran Nuclear Deal Postponed … Again
For those who were expecting a nuclear agreement with Iran this past week, prepare to wait another seven months. The deadline came and went, and no deal was signed.
The latest round of talks, which began in Geneva on November 18, were a last-ditch effort to see a nuclear deal hashed out before the following week’s deadline. But the week in Geneva rolled by with no deal forthcoming. Instead, Iran won another major victory.
When no deal was reached, the P5+1 nations opted to extend talks until June 2015. The reason this is a massive blow to the West and a major diplomatic victory for Iran can be explained by examining what previous delays have accomplished.
P5+1 Gains Little From Waiting
What do the P5+1 nations gain from further delays? Consider the last 12 months of negotiations. In the short-term deals reached, Iran promised the P5+1 nations that it would remove its highly enriched uranium stockpiles. They were also assured Iran would cease construction of further centrifuges and halt work on its plutonium facility in Arak.
These promises—assuming they were abided by—don’t actually downsize Iran’s nuclear program, only slowed its progress. It is estimated that Iran could restock its enriched uranium supply in a matter of weeks, making its removal trivial. And if no facilities were actually destroyed, Iran’s physical capabilities to make the bomb remain unchanged.
While these interim deals have given the West little more than promises, Iran has done very well. No centrifuges have been destroyed. Arak has the same capabilities that it did six months ago. Iran’s nuclear program is as strong today as it was when negotiations began; in fact, it is actually stronger!
Seven Months to Develop Missiles
In the past year of negotiations, Iran has been developing its space program. It has prepared three satellites to launch in early 2015. The satellites may be harmless, but the technology Iran is developing is not. The same systems it will to launch these satellites are also used to launch its intercontinental ballistic missiles (icbms).
Iran’s missile program parallels its nuclear ambitions. If Tehran wants nuclear warheads, it needs the capability to use them—hence the icbm technology. It has already developed icbms capable of reaching Israel and Europe. Further development—overtly, or covertly through space research—has gone on throughout the nuclear negotiations.
With talks extended for another seven months, Iran has the opportunity to enhance its missile technology, ensuring that its nuclear weapons capabilities continue to grow even if warheads are not produced.
Seven Months to Rebuild the Economy
One major benefit for Iran from the past year of negotiations is the chance to rebuild its economy. The P5+1 nations lifted sanctions, giving it access to overseas’ oil revenue, as well as the opportunity to sell more oil. Iran is diligently working to feed its starved economy.
The nation currently has access to approximately $700 million per month in sanctions relief.
The money it is now raking in from oil and gas exports has been a game-changer at the negotiating table. When negotiations began, Iran had been under a heavy burden of sanctions. The West had a real opportunity to force Iran’s hand in a deal. But as the negotiations drag on with no long-term plan, Iran has capitalized on short-term deals. These deals have relieved its ailing economy—undoing years of sanctions.
A strong economy means Iran has less to fear from sanctions: The bite of sanctions wouldn’t take real effect before nuclear weapons were created. Current estimates put Iran’s timetable to produce nukes at six weeks—far too short a time for sanctions to stop it.
This is another reason Iran wins when a deal is delayed. With every passing day, with every delay and postponement, Iran grows stronger economically and increasingly invulnerable to future sanctions.
Seven Months to Consolidate Power in the Middle East
In the past year of delays and short-term deals, the Middle East has experienced a steep rise in terrorist activity, primarily in northern Iraq. The Islamic State has taken large swaths of territory from the beleaguered Iraqi government, prompting its neighbor Iran to get involved. While Iran claims its involvement is merely for the protection of Shiites, Tehran’s radical agenda for the Middle East suggests otherwise.
With a seven-month delay in negotiations, Iran has been given a window of time where it has little to fear from the P5+1 nations. Without the threat of new sanctions or confrontation, Iran can dedicate more time to its regional ambitions. Read our article “Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran?” for more on this long-held desire.
We have already seen how fast the Middle East can change in a matter of months. It took only weeks for the Islamic State to seize control of northern Iraq. How much faster could such a process be if carried out by Iran? It may not take as dramatic an approach, but seven months is certainly more than enough time for Iran to tighten its grasp on and increase influence over its neighbor, Iraq.
Seven Months to Strengthen Negotiation Position
While the months have gone by, one U.S. attitude toward the negotiations is increasingly obvious—desperation. The signs began appearing long before negotiations started. Just three months after Hassan Rouhani was elected as Iran’s president, U.S. President Barack Obama called him to start healing the wounds of a friendship that was destroyed by the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
Iran has played off that desperation well. By simply promising to halt uranium enrichment, the P5+1 nations gave Iran access to previously frozen finances. Such desperate measures will only continue in the following months.
The simple truth is, the longer negotiations continue, the less likely it will be that the U.S. will let them fall apart. White House Spokesman Josh Ernest said that imposing fresh sanctions now could even be counterproductive. Tacking on seven months to the negotiating process means the states will be under even greater pressure to see a deal and more likely to bow to Iranian demands.
All these factors work to strengthen Iran’s position at the negotiating table.
The Iranians have managed to secure another seven months for themselves—and what a seven months it will be.
Perhaps the Iranians would be less jubilant if they grasped where it is all heading. Short-term, it is leading to Iran developing nuclear weapons; but gaining such weapons will bring a much stronger response from the international community.
This response is prophesied in the Bible. If you would like more information on Iran’s delay tactics and the repercussions, read our article “Is Iran Setting Itself Up for Attack?”