A skirmish on Israel’s northern border on January 28 has left at least three people dead and has escalated tensions in what has been a week of increased hostilities in the region.

Attacks flared up between longtime rivals Israel and Hezbollah after relative quiet following the 2006 war. Though based out of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has been heavily engaged in Syria’s civil war for the last few years. As such, cross-border skirmishes have remained sparse.

But as this week shows, Hezbollah’s preoccupation in Syria is waning.

The escalation was noticeable when Israel carried out an airstrike in the Syrian town of Quneitra on January 18. The attack killed six Hezbollah members and an Iranian commander. Hezbollah rejected Israel’s claim that the men were planning a large attack somewhere in the Golan Heights, and retaliated.

In the disputed border region known as Shebaa Farms, Hezbollah launched antitank missiles on an Israel Defense Force (idf) convoy, killing two soldiers and wounding seven others.

Mount Hermon also came under mortar fire. Israel retaliated with artillery strikes. A United Nations peacekeeper was killed in the crossfire, though it is unclear which side was responsible for his death.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told state media following the attack, “To all those who are trying to challenge us on the northern border I suggest looking at what happened … in the Gaza Strip.” The implication is that Israel is prepared to launch a campaign against Hezbollah similar to the one carried out against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, if such an attack does occur, there would be crucial differences.

Geography

First, Hezbollah’s area of operation is far different from Hamas’s. Gaza lies on relatively flat ground and is only 7½ miles across at its widest. It shares just 31 miles of border with Israel.

Hezbollah operates in Lebanon and Syria, both of which share borders with Israel. The landscape is far more rugged in southern Lebanon. Despite the densely populated Gaza City providing hiding spots, Hamas doesn’t enjoy the luxuries of uninhibited movement over a broad region. Hezbollah, on the other hand, can operate with relative freedom across the Syrian and Lebanese south. The hills of southern Lebanon are honeycombed with bunkers, mortar nests and sniper posts—far harder to access than Hamas’s rocket sites.

Armaments

Throughout Israel’s operations against Hamas, the defense of Israel’s cities fell mainly to the Iron Dome—a complex and highly advanced missile interceptor system. The Iron Dome was able to knock the majority of Hamas’s crude rockets and mortars out of the sky before they hit targets in Israel. The portable system has also been stationed in places along Israel’s northern border. The difference is Hezbollah carries more than just crude Fajr-5 missiles and mortars.

Since the war in 2006, Hezbollah has been stocking up its arsenal. According to the head of idf Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Itay Baron, Hezbollah now boasts around 65,000 rockets and missiles—many of which are capable of reaching any part of Israel.

And should Israel retaliate after a terrorist attack, Hezbollah will prove a far tougher foe than Hamas. While the Israeli military is dominant in the skies over Gaza, it would not enjoy such ease in the skies of Lebanon. Hezbollah has upgraded its antiaircraft missiles—making the skies a dangerous place to traverse. It has also enhanced its antiship and antitank missiles—both of which would make an Israeli counterstrike more challenging.

Manpower

Should war ignite, Israel will need to be wary of not just what is being fired but who is firing it. The enemy in Gaza was organized and certainly had resolve, but the training and preparations of Hamas pale next to the years of experience accumulated by Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has already fought a war against Israel and is currently engaged in a conflict in Syria. While Hezbollah losses in Syria are estimated at up to 1,000 men, those who are surviving are learning. In Syria, Hezbollah is developing the art of guerrilla warfare—adding to years of preestablished skills gained through conflict with Israel.

Iran

Iran’s looming presence is another factor to consider. While Iran did all it could to get weapons into Gaza, it was only partially successful. A few Fajr-5 missiles were launched, but overall, Iranian weapons didn’t play a devastating role in the fight. That would be different with Hezbollah.

Much of Hezbollah’s preexisting weaponry comes from Iran. Though Israel partially stems the flow with airstrikes on weapons convoys, undoubtedly some missiles made the journey uninhibited and now rest in Hezbollah’s hands.

A large-scale conflict between the two sides could prompt Hezbollah to tap into its vast supply of long-range missiles. The terrorist group already has missiles that can reach the Red Sea—giving it complete coverage of the State of Israel. Combine this with the sheer size of the rocket stockpile and the fact that Hezbollah has, or could potentially gain access to, chemical weapons or dirty bombs from its allies to the East. Such possibilities paint a bleak picture.

The aforementioned factors all point to a devastating and drawn out conflict in Israel’s northern border. While Israel is doing all it can to avoid a broader conflict with Hezbollah, it cannot ignore the growing danger. If a war starts, it will be a long fight. If a war doesn’t start, Hezbollah will keep fortifying its position, training and arming its men, as Iran gets more involved.

War today or tomorrow—both options paint a morose picture for Israel. But there is also a future beyond the looming dangers of the present age. Israel’s days of being threatened and surrounded are numbered. In fact, the threats that besiege Israel are actually a sign that peace is on the doorstep!

The Trumpet has forecast peace in the Middle East for decades. Read Gerald Flurry’s booklet Jerusalem in Prophecy. Storm clouds are brewing, but prophecy tells us that the storm will not last. Reading this free booklet can help you see the magnificent plan God has in store for Israel and ultimately the entire world.