El Niño’s Big Sister

What could be worse than a strong El Niño? “For all the public attention to this year’s El Niño,’ says climatologist James O’Brien of Florida State University, “La Niña years are actually much nastier to North America, bringing tornadoes to the Midwest, hurricanes to the Atlantic, and drought and forest fires to the Southeast” (U.S. News and World Report, Oct. 6, 1997). What are the chances of La Niña following this dramatic winter? According to Ants Leetmaa, director of the Climate Prediction Center, scientists can’t tell us with certainty whether or not we will experience a strong La Niña after El Niño disappears. But if it does, watch out! “La Niña can bring its own set of weather headaches: a drier, hotter southern tier and a wetter, colder north. ‘Like a pendulum that goes back and forth, El Niño is one side of the extreme and La Niña is the other,’ says Scripps’ Lisa Goddard. Although the magnitude of an El Niño doesn’t necessarily determine the size of the subsequent La Niña, some climatologist are already saying that if you think this El Niño was bad, wait until you see his sister” (Time, Feb. 16, 1998).