WorldWatch
Iran: Inspecting itself
When nations reached a nuclear deal with Iran in April, U.S. President Barack Obama emphasized that it wasn’t based on trust but on “unprecedented verification.” He said “international inspectors will have unprecedented access … to the entire supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program.”
However, at one military site, Parchin, the only inspectors who will access and verify past and present activities are Iranian. The Associated Press reported August 19 that Iran and the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) had already signed a secret side deal that delegates inspections of Parchin to the Iranians. The deal was so secretive that Iranian officials threatened to harm a senior iaea official if he disclosed the nature of the deal with U.S. officials.
Yet the White House’s National Security Council spokesman, Ned Price, said the Obama administration was “confident” in the iaea’s technical plans for verifying activities at Parchin. He said that “the iaea has separately developed the most robust inspection regime ever peacefully negotiated.”
A senior U.S. intelligence official told Bloomberg View that the Obama administration and iaea were confident in the nuclear agency’s verification process despite satellite image evidence of Iran sanitizing its suspected nuclear military site at Parchin.
Some elements of the original AP report were later corrected, the most significant of which was that the Parchin military facility is not a confirmed nuclear site. But the report still serves as an indication of how many unknowns still hang over the nuclear deal.
U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez compared the West’s inspection arrangement with Iran to a fox guarding the chicken coop.
Germany hits immigration record
Eleven million immigrants now live in Germany—more than ever—according to official statistics released August 3. On August 19, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière announced the German government expects 800,000 immigrants to arrive in Germany this year, up from the 500,000 it had announced previously.
On August 24, Germany said it will accept all asylum-seekers from Syria, regardless of which European Union nation they first entered. Germany is the first EU nation to suspend a 1990 protocol stipulating that refugees must request asylum in the first EU nation they enter. Berlin also said it will revoke all current expulsion orders for Syrian asylum-seekers.
For the last three years, Germany has been the world’s second-biggest destination for migrants, after the United States. Yet many in Germany have no appetite for more immigrants. This year, more than 200 attacks have occurred against shelters for asylum seekers. Far-right marches are becoming more common, as are anti-immigrant sloganeering and graffiti. In late July, someone targeted far-left, pro-refugee politician Michael Richter and blew up his car.
This is part of a Europe-wide problem. May, June and July all set new records for the number of immigrants arriving in Europe; 100,000 arrived in July alone. As southern Europe becomes overwhelmed and immigration weighs on German minds, watch for anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe to reach a boiling point.
In crisis, calls for unity
“Are We on the Threshold of a United States of Europe?” That headline appeared in the Lowy Interpreter this summer. Across Europe, politicians are talking about a solution to the euro crisis: a new integrated Europe.
“What threatens us is not too much Europe, but too little Europe,” wrote French President François Hollande on July 19. He called for the eurozone to have a new governing parliament and its own budget. Importantly, this idea has strong support in Berlin, particularly with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
Groundwork for “a United States of Europe” is being laid by talk of a eurozone tax. Appropriating the power of taxation would mark a huge step forward for united European political power. Several high-profile European leaders support the idea.
“Schäuble believes that the eurozone is not sustainable as it is,” former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said July 16. “He believes there has to be some fiscal transfers, some degree of political union. … And he said explicitly to me that a Grexit is going to equip him with sufficient terrorizing power in order to impose upon the French that which Paris has been resisting: a degree of transfer of budget-making powers from Paris to Brussels.”
Decades ago, based on Bible prophecy, Herbert W. Armstrong repeatedly forecast the emergence of a smaller, leaner, stronger European superstate—what he termed a “United States of Europe.” Economic crisis is paving the way for this to be fulfilled.
On August 6, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi inaugurated what has been dubbed the New Suez Canal. The project expands the 146-year-old canal to support two-way traffic. If expectations are realized, it will double revenue and multiply strategic value.
The extra lane should reduce transit time per vessel from 18 hours to 11 hours, meaning the canal’s transits per day are expected to double from 49 to 97 by 2023.
The expansion project cost Egypt $8.5 billion and—thanks to orders from President Sisi—one year of digging and dredging, instead of the projected three years.
Suez Canal expansion: Greater prize for Iran?
The Suez Canal is already one of the world’s most important trade corridors, accommodating 7 percent of global seaborne trade—a volume that is now set to grow dramatically. The New Suez Canal is expected to alter global geopolitics.
The current war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen is essentially a war over who will control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the narrow entrance to the Red Sea that ultimately leads to the Suez Canal. Iran could ramp up its efforts to secure this region once the nuclear deal is signed and American focus shifts elsewhere.
On January 17, the Iranian state-sponsored Tasnim News Agency declared: “Today, all the arteries of oil transport—from Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz—are under Iranian control, by means of Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, and within range of Iranian missiles.”
Ironically, the expanded Suez Canal may actually mean more influence for Iran.
China dominates America in Djibouti
Djibouti President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh said in an interview with Agence France-Presse in May that “discussions are ongoing” that will establish China’s first overseas naval base in Djibouti. According to reports, China will send 10,000 troops to its new base in Obock, a port city in the north of the country. The Chinese will pay $100 million per year to the Djibouti government for use of the base.
China’s design to move into Obock undermines the United States. Obock is presently used by a small contingent of American military personnel, but the Djibouti government has already asked the U.S. to vacate the site. China’s increased presence in Djibouti will also threaten America’s only permanent base in Africa. Camp Lemonnier, located in the south of Djibouti, supports 4,500 U.S. military personnel and has been used since 2001 in the war against terrorism for gathering intelligence on the Islamic State, al Qaeda and their affiliates in Africa and the Gulf. Camp Lemonnier is also America’s main base for drone operations in the region.
The Pentagon is worried that a Chinese presence will compromise U.S. intelligence-gathering processes by intercepting or even sabotaging its operations.
A senior U.S. official told the Telegraph that China’s presence poses “serious security concerns with regard to Camp Lemonnier” (July 21). He said there are “fears that if President Guelleh gets too close to China, then he may be tempted to impose restrictions on U.S. access to the base.”
The relationship between the U.S. and President Guelleh is already strained: Washington accuses him of dictatorial leadership, and it hopes that new elections could change those edgy relations. As it has in other parts of Africa, China is taking advantage of this strain.
“Barring drastic unforeseen change in China itself, this is the new normal,” said Alexander Sullivan, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security. “There’s a much larger story, and this is emblematic,” he continued. “China is becoming more active in international security affairs than at any time in the history of the People’s Republic because they have an increasing global interest” (May 16).
Djibouti’s location in the Horn of Africa and at a choke point that gives the world access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal makes it strategically critical. As the United States loses control of sea gates around the world, China is moving in.
Friction increases between the Koreas
Tensions along the 38th parallel began heating back up in August, after North Korean forces illegally planted landmines in the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. On August 10, the exploding mines severely injured two South Korean soldiers, prompting Seoul to activate a set of loudspeakers that blasted a message into the North that bitterly criticized dictator Kim Jong-un.
The speakers were heard by North Korean soldiers in the demilitarized zone and some civilian communities up to 12 miles across the border.
On August 20, after Seoul refused to silence the speakers, North Koreans fired some artillery rounds across the border, and South Korea responded by firing dozens of rounds back. The North then began moving troops and tanks closer to the border.
On August 24, following marathon talks, the two sides announced that they had reached a temporary agreement. The North acknowledged its role in the landmine attack and apologized, and the South agreed to silence the speakers. Yet concern about the future of the Koreans remains high.
The nature of Kim’s regime obliges him to keep his oppressed people onside by emphasizing and embellishing perceived threats from South Korea or the United States. But if Kim ever acts on his oft-repeated threats of war, the consequences will be disastrous. In such a scenario, the disaster would primarily afflict Kim’s own military and people. Despite being poorly armed, the sheer numbers of North Korean soldiers could break through the 38th parallel border between the two nations and possibly push all the way to the South’s capital city, just 35 miles away.
Russia and Iran confirm major missile system deal
Russia and Iran finalized an agreement in August for Moscow to deliver its advanced S-300 surface-to-air missile system to Iran.
Back in 2010, Moscow banned delivery of the S-300 to Iran due to United Nations Security Council sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear program. But on April 13 of this year, just weeks after Iran and the P5+1 group of countries reached a preliminary understanding over limiting Iran’s nuclear program, Russian President Vladimir Putin lifted the ban.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister said in August that the two nations had “reached a full understanding on the matter.” Now Russia is on target to deliver the system by the end of this year.
The United States and Israel have protested the delivery, saying Iran could use the S-300 to further undermine the stability of the Middle East. A senior U.S. Air Force commander said the system “essentially makes Iran attack-proof by Israel and almost any country without fifth-gen [stealth] capabilities. In other words, Iran, with the S-300, can continue to do what they want once those systems are in place without fear of attack from anyone save the U.S. Brilliant chess move …” (Daily Beast, April 13).
The S-300 launcher has a range of 93 miles and can intercept multiple targets at 90,000 feet. Satellite connectivity gives it the ability to track multiple targets at a range of 150 miles. It can also target cruise missiles, and some S-300 systems can intercept ballistic missiles.
The system will give Iran the range throughout the Persian Gulf to track U.S. military aircraft, civilian airplanes and U.S.-allied military flights. On June 3, The Hill explained its capabilities: “Not only would most modern strike aircraft be vulnerable to detection and engagement far before reaching Iranian shores, the S-300 would allow Iran offensive capacities beyond its airspace, which could include harassing non-hostile aircraft flying over neighboring countries.”
