JERUSALEM—The European Union decided on June 20 to extend and expand its Mediterranean naval mission off the coast of Libya.

Operation Sophia, as it is named, has been in effect for the past year with naval vessels and aircraft patrolling waters just outside Libya in an attempt to disrupt human trafficking toward Europe—the now favored route for migrants coming from Africa. According to the EU, Sophia’s success can be measured in the 16,000 migrants who were saved from drowning in the Mediterranean Sea in the past year, as well as the 139 smuggler vessels that were neutralized; 71 suspected smugglers were also arrested.

Given that success, it comes as no surprise that Sophia was extended through July 2017.

More than just extending the mission, however, EU leaders have now expanded Sophia’s goals to begin training Libyan naval forces and to enforce a United Nations arms embargo. This means European forces will be able to board any vessel heading toward Libya that they believe is carrying weaponry. They will also have the authority to seize any suspicious vessels.

The bill was sold as an effort to reduce the access of arms to the Islamic State, which is currently holding out in the northern Libyan city of Sirte. However, as even the Russians realize, the arms embargo will affect more than just the Islamic State.

Russia Questions Europe’s Motives

The decision to expand Sophia came after members of the EU approached the UN Security Council (unsc) asking it to grant them the authority to enforce the embargo. Prior to the Council’s decision, EU Foreign Policy Chief Frederica Mogherini stated, “I can only hope that this council will once again do the right thing and help us make the Mediterranean a safer place for everyone.”

Following the successful vote at the unsc, Mogherini echoed her earlier comments in the following tweet:

https://twitter.com/FedericaMog/status/742820935208701952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

While the unsc did support the mission in a unanimous vote, the Russian delegation was noticeably concerned that there was more to the EU’s desire to upgrade Sophia. Moscow’s deputy UN ambassador, Vladimir Safronkov, went so far as to question what the “real motives” behind Europe’s sponsorship of the deal were and complained that the text didn’t stress the goal of establishing a united security force in Libya.

The Europeans are up to something in Libya, and the Russians are clearly putting the pieces together.

This latest upgrade to Sophia must be viewed in light of last month’s decision by the UN, and again pushed by the EU, to partially lift the arms embargo for the EU-backed and -brokered Libyan Government of National Accord (gna). But don’t be fooled by its name; the gna hardly speaks for all Libyans. In fact, a powerful and democratically elected government still operates out of the eastern Libyan city of Tobruk. What’s more, aligned with this eastern government is the Libyan National Army (lna), arguably Libya’s most-effective fighting force against the Islamic State.

According to last month’s decision, however, the gna will be the “sole legitimate recipient of international security assistance.” All other groups, including the lna, are deemed illegitimate and will not receive help in the fight against the Islamic State.

These bold moves by the EU ensure that the Libyan government in the west will receive arms and ammunition, while the rival government in eastern Libya will receive no help. What’s more, Operation Sophia gives the EU the authority to ensure the lna receives no assistance, at least by sea.

Hence why the Russians are concerned that the text of the upgraded mission did not stress the goal of establishing a united security force in Libya to fight the Islamic State. Obviously, the EU has long given up on trying to bring unity to the east and west governments in Libya.

Even though the Russians question Europe’s motives, it is unlikely that they realize that the EU’s goals go beyond supporting one Libyan government over another.

It’s Not the Islamic State

The EU marketed the Operation Sophia upgrade as necessary to combat the rise of the Islamic State in Libya. However, while the Islamic State in Libya may be somewhat affected by the operation, Europe’s goals in Libya eclipse the destruction of the Islamic State. Indeed, last week Libyan militias wrested control of the port of Sirte, impacting the Islamic State’s ability to receive weapons by sea.

Instead of being about the Islamic State, Europe is expanding Operation Sophia so that it can be better positioned to dominate and control the southern Mediterranean.

Commenting after the German cabinet agreed to expand its contribution to Operation Sophia, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen said, “It’s important that the character of the mandate is being expanded to focus more on the root causes of the refugee streams.”

As von der Leyen understands, the Islamic State is not the root cause of the refugee streams coming into Europe. Refugees were scampering onto boats to reach Europe long before the Islamic State existed in Libya (or in Syria for that matter). Rather, the refugees started to move because of the general state of disorder and chaos created by the ousting of dictators during the 2011 Arab Spring, which was further proliferated by radical Islamic growth in the region.

Germany and the EU are working to provide solutions to both causes by starting with Libya. They have set up their own government in the gna and are now working to ensure radical Islam is combated.

According to von der Leyen, Germany has an interest in creating “more order” along the border to Europe. To help create that order, Germany is working to expand its contribution to Sophia from the current 400 personnel to 950 through next year. While the numbers might seem small, the fact that Germany is expanding its role in the southern Mediterranean is worth watching.

This latest addition to Operation Sophia is still only phase one of the plan. According to a classified report obtained by WikiLeaks earlier this year, Operation Sophia’s last two phases will be EU military operations inside Libyan territorial waters—and then, finally, European boots on the ground in Libya.

The classified document also urges EU authorities to speed up the process of forming a “reliable” government in Libya, which would be expected to give permission to extend EU military operations onshore. With the gna—a virtual creation of the EU and the international community—this is already in the works. How long will it be until the gna requests assistance from Europe?

As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry brought out in the July 2016 Trumpet, Germany and Italy once had a dream of dominating the southern Mediterranean and creating an African empire. From 1941–43, they almost succeeded. Are they trying to realize that dream once again by starting with something as subtle as Operation Sophia?

Read Mr. Flurry’s article to see that even Operation Sophia has been preceded by over 20 years of careful, orderly German planning to expand southward across the Mediterranean Sea.