Putin: Leadership on the Line
Civil unrest has plagued much of Russia for a few weeks. Last Sunday, tens of thousands of irate protestors, with a public audacity rarely seen in Russia, marched the streets of Moscow shouting for the immediate resignation of President Vladimir Putin. Demonstrators in the eastern port of Vladivostok carried posters saying, “Oh, if only comrade Stalin were here now.”
It appears similar rallies will continue to erupt across the nation. The anti-Putin movement has burgeoned over the past year as a result of the cagey president’s measures to establish tighter control over Russian government and industry—especially his measures to revamp Russia’s aging welfare system.
Over the course of his five-year presidency, Putin has been aggressive and highly successful in establishing an iron-like grip over the nation. The former kgb agent has streamlined the Russian government, beaten into line his potential competitors among the Russian oligarchs, tightened his leash on Russian media and established strong Kremlin influence over Russia’s greatest asset, oil.
But the recent anti-Putin rallies are now sparking the question, is the Russian president about to lose control over his beloved motherland? A number of news sources clearly believe Putin could soon be replaced.
While there is no doubt that Putin’s leadership is being tested, let’s not be too quick to cast him as a Russian has-been. This cunning leader has options other than resignation, and you can be sure he will explore them all.
The most appealing option available to Putin would be to further tighten his grip over the nation and take stronger measures to reign in dissident citizens. Any move he might take in this direction would not be unprecedented in Russia: After all, many of the country’s proudest moments have occurred with an autocrat at the helm.
In one sense, President Putin could even glean encouragement from some of the motivation behind the current protests in Russia. The fact that many of the protesting Russians are wishing for another Stalin, combined with a recent study indicating that 42 percent of Russians believe the country needs another politician like Stalin, could indicate that Russians would embrace a stronger, more autocratic Putin.
Many a Russian who desires another Stalin actually longs for the welfare state he provided. The fact that millions of Russians want a welfare state, even if it might mean living under another autocrat, shows an astonishing mindset.
The infamous kgb—Russia’s “ruthless, murderous secret service arm of the government made famous by Joseph Stalin”—trained Vladimir Putin. Russia’s leader is more like Stalin than many Russians might even realize.
Anti-Putin protests are likely to continue; pressure on the president will escalate. It would be a surprise, however, if Putin willingly capitulated. After everything he has done to establish his authority, it’s unlikely he will go down without a fight. Watch for him to explore every other option in the coming months. With time, it is likely that Putin will grow more autocratic. Expect to see some drastic changes in Russia in the near future.
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