Tony Blair is still prime minister of Britain. But his Labour Party has lost considerable authority in Parliament—making Blair’s unprecedented third term likely to be more of a lame-duck administration. Going from a 161-seat majority to a 66-seat majority, Blair’s party drew only 36 percent of the vote—the lowest percentage of the popular vote in the country’s election history. Gaining in popularity is Michael Howard’s Conservative Party.

Many attribute Blair’s loss of ground to his position on the Iraq war. While that may be part of it, we cannot ignore that a growing dissatisfaction exists among Britons with the European Union. The Conservative Party, which gained 44 more seats this election, rarely used the Iraq issue in its campaigns against Blair—but it is known for its heavily Euroskeptic platform. It pressured Blair into taking the EU constitution debate to the people in a referendum to be held in less than a year.

So, sometime next spring, Britons will take to the polls again—deciding whether or not Britain should ratify the EU charter. Analysts suggest that Blair’s thin majority will hamper his ability to rally his people behind the treaty. What’s more: The referendum’s results will largely be interpreted by Eurocrats as whether or not Britain wants any part of the EU.

For more on this, see our articles “UK to leave EU by 2006?” and “The Defining Moment Approaches.”