Instability and Change in Egypt
The autocratic rule of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt becomes more tenuous by the day. Recent weeks have seen an upsurge in militant attacks and demonstrations against Mubarak’s government, culminating in nationwide protests on May 4. What looks like a resurgence of Islamist militancy, coupled with a weakening of the Mubarak regime, is likely to result in a period of instability in the nation and open the way for drastic changes in Egyptian politics.
A key player in the current unrest in Egypt is the nation’s largest Islamic organization, the banned Muslim Brotherhood. In the May 4 demonstrations calling for an end to President Mubarak’s 24-year rule, at least 400 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were detained. In Cairo, approximately 2,500 of its members assembled outside of a mosque to demand reforms. Tear gas was used to disperse protesters in cities across the country. Along with the Islamist demonstrators were other pro-reform activists including leftists and nationalists.
Such demonstrations in Egypt have been rising in tempo for some months; what until last December were rare demonstrations of dissatisfaction with the government are now becoming regular occurrences. The Egyptian government is cautious as to how severely it cracks down on these illegal protests (public demonstrations without authorization are not allowed) for fear of inciting the masses.
Last month saw pro-democracy rallies held in 15 cities across Egypt, organized by the Kifaya (Enough) movement. The Kifaya coalition is an umbrella group that includes secular parties along with the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood. Also in April, thousands of Egyptian university students—mostly from the Muslim Brotherhood—marched at five campuses in Cairo and the Nile Delta and were only prevented from taking the demonstration into the streets by hundreds of police.
At the same time, Islamic insurgency attacks designed to weaken the government have also seen an upsurge. On April 30, two attacks targeting tourists in Cairo were partly thwarted. Seven people were injured and the attackers killed. Several weeks earlier, an explosion at a Cairo bazaar killed two and injured over 20.
With presidential elections to take place in September, it is possible that such attacks and demonstrations will only increase in the coming months. Though the elections will contain more than one candidate for the first time since Mubarak came to power in 1981, many charge that the polls will be rigged so only a government-approved candidate can win. It is generally expected that either Mubarak or a successor of his choosing will prevail.
However, given the growing discontent in the country, conditions are ripening for drastic change. In this context, we certainly cannot rule out a crisis resulting from the rapid departure of Mubarak from the political scene through either death (he is aged and in poor health), as put forward in our July 2004Trumpet, or assassination, as Gerald Flurry suggested in The King of the South: “President Mubarak, a moderate, could be assassinated just as Anwar el-Sadat was. This could implement another gigantic change in Egyptian politics, similar to what happened in Iran’s 1979 revolution.”
If Mubarak, the “pivot of the entire political system” in Egypt (Stratfor, March 14) is no longer in control, a vacuum and almost certain political instability would be the result.
On the other hand, if truly democratic elections were held in Egypt—as the U.S. has been encouraging—it is the Islamists who would have the best chance of coming out on top (see “The Democracy Paradox” in our May issue). As the New Statesman wrote, “the majority of Egyptians—poor, repressed, pious Sunnis—would be more likely to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood, voice of the Islamist trend in Egyptian politics” (March 21). The Muslim Brotherhood has a well-organized infrastructure, being established for over 50 years, and has deep—and growing—roots among the Egyptian people.
Certainly, as discontent with the political system in Egypt increases, we can expect to see the Islamists grow in popularity. A change of leadership will occur—and probably sooner rather than later.
Watch for an Islamic government to come to power in Egypt—whether through the implementation of some form of democracy or by other less democratic means—and for a subsequent cementing of ties between Cairo and the dominant Islamic power in the region, Iran. The Trumpet’s editor in chief has been predicting for almost a decade that Egypt will fall under the influence of Islamists. Mr. Flurry stated in The King of the South: “Daniel 11:42 implies that Egypt will be allied with the king of the south, or Iran. This prophecy indicates that there would be a far-reaching change in Egyptian politics!”
Watch for that change.
