U.S. Accepts a Future Islamic State in Egypt?

Winds of change are blowing in Egypt.

President Hosni Mubarak was recently sworn in for his fifth term, but his power shows signs of decay. Though he managed to win an overwhelming 88.6 percent of the vote, not even a quarter of the electorate voted. Opposition groups in Egypt called the elections a fraud and mobs took to the streets to protest his victory.

These signs are troubling not just for Mubarak, but for Washington, which is starting to come to terms with the fact that Egyptian politics are about to undergo a radical change.

Elizabeth Cheney, deputy assistant secretary of state and daughter to the U.S. vice president, told Associated Press on September 29, “For the first time, America’s foreign policy interests and the interests of people in the Arab world who are working for freedom have converged.” Cheney praised Mubarak for holding multi-candidate elections rather than his usual single-candidate referendums, but encouraged greater democratic reform in Egypt. Then, interestingly, she added that the U.S. was against the suppression of political freedoms and rights, no matter what their ideological following may be.

Cheney’s statements illustrate the weakness in Washington’s goal to democratize the Middle East. Washington must encourage the change of authoritarian-type governments, such as Mubarak’s, to more democratic governments to maintain its credibility. However, a purer democratic government actually increases the chance of an Islamic government being established. Freer elections in Egypt could mean a massive political transformation toward something more radical.

According to think tank Stratfor, Cheney’s statements “can be viewed as a signal that Washington knows change is on the way, and that it wants to manage the change—as opposed to allowing a 1979-style Islamic Revolution to recur” (September 30).

The last thing the U.S. would want, of course, is a radical Islamic government to replace Mubarak—even if legitimately elected—but Mubarak’s undemocratic methods make it hard for the U.S. to continue to support him. The problem is, there are no alternative moderate Islamic candidates to support in Mubarak’s stead.

Right now the only viable alternative looks like it may have to come from the Islamic movement called Muslim Brotherhood. The movement can hardly be called moderate though, and is outlawed in Egyptian politics. Still, Mubarak faces increasing pressure to legalize the movement for democracy’s sake. However, this would lead to exactly what U.S. officials are trying to avoid: a hardcore Islamic government.

For nearly a decade, the Trumpet has predicted that Egypt’s government will undergo a radical change and fall under Islamic influence. It appears U.S. officials are owning up to this prospect. But the idea that they can prevent an Islamic takeover is unrealistic. Try as it might, the U.S. will not be able to manage the coming political storm in Egypt.

For more information, request our free booklet The King of the South, where the Trumpet’s editor in chief explains the reasoning behind this prediction about what to expect in Egypt.