What Does Sinn Fein’s Surge Mean for the UK?
Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein won the largest number of first-preference votes in national elections held on February 9. Sinn Fein is now effectively the largest party in parliament, with no party reaching a majority. A coalition government will be necessary, likely bringing this radical party into Ireland’s government for the first time.
In the first-preference system, voters rank their preferred candidates. By this measure, Sinn Fein came in first place, scoring 24.5 percent; Fianna Fáil (the Republican Party) came second with 22 percent. Fine Gael (Family of the Irish), party of current Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, placed third with 21 percent.
Once all the calculations are done, Sinn Fein has 37 seats in parliament. Fianna Fáil holds 38 seats. However, one of those seats goes to the house speaker, who is supposed to be neutral. So the two parties are effectively neck-and-neck.
The result even caught Sinn Fein by surprise. As a smaller party, it didn’t compete in all the seats.
The biggest loser was Varadkar and his party, which endured one of the worst results in its history.
“Despite being edged in seat numbers, Sinn Fein is undoubtedly the party with [the] most to celebrate, having smashed Ireland’s long-standing two party system,” wrote the Telegraph.
However, all parties came short of the 80 needed for a majority in parliament. This leaves Ireland with only two options: another election or a coalition.
Putting together a coalition without Sinn Fein would be hard. Already some may be laying the groundwork for such a compromise. Michael Martin, leader of Fianna Fail, had previously stated he would never work with Sinn Fein. In the aftermath of the election, he did not reiterate this pledge.
Sinn Fein’s victory signals an ominous future for Ireland, Northern Ireland and the entire United Kingdom.
As a nationalist, left-wing party, Sinn Fein’s triumph is yet another example of the extreme becoming mainstream. Like many populist parties in Europe, it won on a platform of improving employment and housing prices for the younger demographic. Sinn Fein’s victory follows the pattern of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland’s rise, Matteo Salvini’s meteoric rise as head of the League party in Italy, and the far-right Vox party’s entry into government in Spain. Ireland is yet another nation entering the political “death-spiral” already beginning in Europe. Populist parties often position themselves as a defense against an outside threat—in Europe’s case, defending national or European values. This type of party characterized the 1930s.
Sinn Fein poses a more immediate danger than European populist parties. It is the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (ira), the terrorist group that carried out bombings and murders during the Troubles. Around 3,200 died as a result of the ira terrorism before the Good Friday Agreement of April 10, 1998.
Since the Agreement, overt rioting and attacks have stopped. However, the ideology of that group has not changed. Right before peace talks concluded in 1998, the ira’s Army Council said, “We remain committed to ending British rule in Ireland and the reunification of our country.” Today, there are still stockpiles of weapons that were never handed in, waiting to be used in the struggle for Irish unification.
In his article “From Terrorists to Politicians,” late Trumpet columnist Ron Fraser explained that Sinn Fein is the political wing of a terrorist organization. It has always aimed “to become a legitimate political force in the mainstream, gaining acceptance by established governments, the international community, and the public within their home states, and thus to win power by political means which they started out to gain by the tactics of terror.”
Sinn Fein already has a role in Northern Ireland’s government. If it rules in the Republic, too, it will go mainstream in a bigger way than ever before. Irish unity, the issue behind the Troubles, and for which the ira exists to fight, will be at the forefront of its political agenda. It will lead the political push for unity. In the highly sensitive region of Northern Ireland, politics can easily lead to violence.
Even demographics are working against Ireland’s chances for peace. Northern Ireland’s Protestant majority is marginal—only 42 percent identify as Protestant, and their numbers are rapidly declining. Meanwhile, 41 percent identify as Catholic, and their numbers are rising. Most analysts expect Catholics to outnumber Protestants by 2021. When these numbers break even, Sinn Fein could call for a referendum on Irish unity. Though religion does not guarantee how a person will vote, it has a stronger correlation to politics in Ireland than any nation in the Western world. After the signing of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, Mr. Fraser forecast exactly this, writing in “Terror Triumphant!”, “The plain fact is that, given a few years, the Protestant majority in Ulster will be overwhelmed by the much more rapidly reproducing Catholic minority. It is simply a matter of time. The Catholic nationalists will simply populate the Ulster Irish out of existence as a province separate from the rest of Ireland!”
Mr. Fraser predicted that the peace brokered by almost two years of negotiations would not last. Regarding the agreement, he wrote, “At its best, it is a most shameful capitulation to the forces of terrorism. At its worst, it contains the sinister seeds of destruction of the very peace that it is touted to produce ….”
The Bible shows that Sinn Fein’s rise will be disastrous for Britain. Any attempt at unifying Ireland—which is Sinn Fein’s stated goal—will end in violence.
Consider how Brexit proves the Bible’s track record. Herbert W. Armstrong, who broadcast on radio and founded the Plain Truth, predecessor magazine of the Trumpet, said in the 1950s that Britain would not be part of the European superpower. How did he know? He relied on Bible prophecy. In “Why the Trumpet Watches the UK’s Break From Europe,” we wrote:
From the earliest days of broadcasting work in the 1930s, Herbert W. Armstrong forecast the advent of a united European power. In 1956 he wrote, “Probably Germany will lead and dominate the coming United States of Europe, but Britain will be no part of it” (emphasis added throughout).
Even when Britain joined the European Community in 1973, Mr. Armstrong did not back away from this bold prophecy. “Britain is going to look back on Monday, Jan. 1, 1973, in all probability, as a most tragically historic date—a date fraught with ominous potentialities!” he wrote.
Brexit was prophesied, and that prophecy was fulfilled. Europe’s attack on Britain will also shortly be fulfilled. The two are intimately connected.
Ireland is extremely pro-European Union. As is Scotland, whose First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the EU to “leave a light on for Scotland to find its way home” after Brexit. Opposition from these nations will make post-Brexit negotiations with the EU difficult for England.
Europe has turned the Irish border issue into a thorn in Britain’s side, delaying Brexit and bending negotiations in its favor. Ireland’s primary motivation in politically aligning with Europe is to oppose its longtime enemy, England. But Ireland is being used by a larger power.
Sinn Fein’s rise is a victory for Europe and the Catholic Church. It will change politics in the UK. Renewed violence will come to Ireland. Eventually, a resurgent European superpower will target Britain—possibly with help from Catholic Ireland. For more background on why the Trumpet pays close attention to Sinn Fein’s rise and Europe gaining control of Ireland, read “From Terrorists to Politicians.”