Much has been made of Israel’s “overwhelmingly” superior military force as compared to that of Hezbollah, even resulting in strident protest among much of the liberal Western media and terrorist-sympathizing countries at the level of firepower Israel is employing in its endeavor to neutralize that terrorist body. Of course, to compare the two foes’ arsenals, Israel clearly comes out on top.

But what is remarkable in this scenario is how truly canny Hezbollah has been in igniting this conflict. In launching rocket attacks on Haifa, Israel’s third-largest city—understanding that this is an impossible scenario for Israel not to respond to (imagine rocket attacks on Chicago)—Hezbollah made clear its desire to start a war.

Trace back. When Israel departed Lebanon in 2000, it left the problem of Hezbollah on its border for Syria and Lebanon to deal with. As has become painfully apparent, this decision enabled the terrorist group to incubate—to fortify its position in southern Lebanon, to acquire a vast stash of advanced weaponry, and to strengthen its global financial and terrorist network. While Israel compromised and gave concessions to buy short-term “quiet,” Hezbollah prepared for war.

Israel is now fighting a ground war against what intelligence firm Stratfor says could be “the most resilient and well-motivated opposition force in its history.” Israeli ground forces entering southern Lebanon in the past few days have been met with heavy Hezbollah resistance. Dozens of well-fortified Hezbollah bunkers reportedly crisscross southern Lebanon. Even after days of aerial bombardment by Israel along with operations along the Israel-Lebanon border, Hezbollah’s missile attacks on Israel have not ceased. Just yesterday, Haifa came under an onslaught of more than a dozen rockets, in which two Israelis were killed.

Look at what Hezbollah has already managed to do, and one has to give it credit. “Hezbollah has dealt Israel a difficult hand,” wrote Stratfor. “It has thought through the battle problem as well as the political dimension carefully. Somewhere in this, there has been either an Israeli intelligence failure or a political failure to listen to intelligence. Hezbollah’s capabilities have posed a problem for Israel that allowed Hezbollah to start a war at a time and in a way of its choosing” (July 21).

There is no doubt Hezbollah will aim to make Israel’s offensive into Lebanon as costly as possible. With strong built-in positions, Hezbollah is in a position to inflict substantial Israeli casualties. But more than that, Hezbollah has the ability to conduct a sustained insurgency. This technique has proven to test even the mighty U.S. military to its limits. Conventional forces seeking to minimize civilian casualties just aren’t equipped to definitively deal with insurgency warfare. Witness Iraq.

But, that said, if Israel’s enemy was simply the terrorist group Hezbollah, as an isolated entity, there is little doubt that in short order that enemy would be rendered ineffective. The reality, however, is that Hezbollah is a proxy for Iran and Syria. It is those countries which have supplied the armaments, the logistical support, the finance, the training and the ideological motivation that make Hezbollah the effective terrorist force it is.

It is clear, in retrospect, that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah had been preparing for this decision for some time. The timing of the conflict was orchestrated by Iran, with Syria’s assistance, and executed with precision.

It came on the heels of a summit in Damascus that was attended by a top Hezbollah official, the head of Syrian military intelligence and the Iranian national security adviser, among others.

Evidently as preparation for the current offensive, intelligence sources report that Hezbollah received a major weapons consignment from Iran this March. The shipment, which reportedly contained 12,000 Katyusha rockets as well as other types of missiles, was airlifted to Syria and then transported in a military convoy to Hezbollah’s bases in southern Lebanon. Not two weeks into the present conflict, the sophistication and amount of weaponry Hezbollah has obtained from Iran has already proven to be much greater than most had presumed. Considering the intelligence failure there, this leaves the true extent of Hezbollah’s capabilities an open question.

“At the same time as the missile consignment was heading to Lebanon, an unnamed senior Iranian official said that his country would inflict ‘harm and pain’ on the United States and its allies, and vowed to ‘use any means’ to ‘resist any pressure and threats’ designed to curb Iran’s nuclear program. The rhetoric was not empty” (Spectator, July 22).

Just when world powers threatened to send Iran to the UN Security Council for failing to respond to their request for it to resume negotiations over its nuclear program, Hezbollah attacked Israel. “[T]he message that Tehran delivered … courtesy of its Lebanese proxy, was loud and clear: Iran would—and could—inflict ‘harm and pain’ on U.S. interests; and not just in the Middle East. Hezbollah’s playground extends far beyond the region. It has a formidable global reach” (ibid.).

Even if Hezbollah is under pressure within Lebanon, it has a network of cells reaching around the world capable of acting on short notice. With Iran’s go-ahead, these cells could be activated to bomb Israeli (or American) targets in any number of countries. Iran has worked with Hezbollah operatives in the past to pull off such attacks as the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina.

The Hezbollah branch in Iran has declared it stands ready to attack Israelis and Americans around the world if given the order by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A spokesman for the Iranian Hezbollah said 2,000 volunteers have registered and been trained since last year. “We are ready to dispatch them to every corner of the world to jeopardize Israel and America’s interests,” he stated (Reuters, July 18).

There are reports that the number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps troops in Lebanon has increased over the past week or so and that Iranians are involved in firing missiles into Israel. The missile that hit an Israeli Navy missile boat off the coast of Lebanon on Friday, killing four Israelis, was directly operated by Iranians, according to foreign sources cited by the New York Sun (July 19). “This was a direct message to the Israelis that we are fighting the Iranians here,” the Arab diplomatic source said.

A report published by an Israel-based research group, the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, confirmed that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard based in Lebanon “provides military guidance and support for terrorist attacks against Israel.”

Clearly, as long as Iran and Syria are around and hostile to Israel, terrorism against Israel will continue. Even if, say, Israel is successful in dealing a debilitating blow to Hezbollah—still, as long as the source of terrorism, the ideological, financial, tactical and military support of terrorist groups like Hezbollah exists, Israel has no victory. To the contrary, such a move would likely enflame the Muslim world such that it would churn out even more terrorists, suicide bombers and insurgents. Even now, according to Stratfor, “a growing urgency has developed among militant actors in the region to dispatch suicide bombers into Israel” (July 19). Last week, Israeli police foiled a number of suicide bombing attempts.

Considering the support Hezbollah receives from Iran and Syria, the prospect of this scenario intensifies: that Israel will either have to retreat with some sort of brokered agreement and leave a job unfinished, or else it will become bogged down in Lebanon once again fighting an insurgency.

This is a chess match with high stakes. Even as Israel ramps up its offensive, a look at the broader picture reveals that its long-term prospects do not look good.