Germany could lose €120 billion to €150 billion (us$131 billion to $163 billion) if Donald Trump returns to the White House, according to a study published by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research on March 4.

With Germany’s prosperity at risk, we need to closely watch the nation’s response.

“A possible reelection of Donald Trump as [United States] president in November 2024 could entail a significant upheaval for the world trading order, if he fulfills his announcements to raise tariffs, mainly in order to reduce the U.S. trade deficit,” the researchers warned.

The prediction is based on two scenarios. In the first scenario, the U.S. increases tariffs to 10 percent on all U.S. imports and 60 percent on imports from China. In the second, China retaliates with a tariff increase of 40 percentage points on imports from the U.S.

In recent years, Germany benefited greatly from trading with the U.S. while the U.S. suffered trade deficits worth $70 billion in 2021. Now Germany fears losing this economic advantage.

To prepare for the potential losses, the authors suggest Europe should use Joe Biden’s remaining time in the White House to improve relations with the U.S.; sign more free trade agreements with Australia, mercosur, Indonesia or India; and establish “credible retaliation measures.”

“No European leader can say they were not warned,” IP Quarterly wrote on January 29. “But with less than a year to go before Trump potentially regains power, Europe and Germany seem to be sleepwalking into a geo-economic crisis that could be economically and politically devastating.”

Donald Trump’s primary victory on Super Tuesday served as another wake-up call for Germany. As Americans vote for economic prosperity, allies warn of devastation.

This set the scene for German Economic Minister Robert Habeck’s planned trip to the U.S. He departed last Wednesday to rally against protectionism and promote more trans-Atlantic cooperation.

When asked what would happen if Trump were reelected, Habeck said he did not want to comment on the election campaign but said that Trump had “destroyed” all cooperation formats in the past. “That cannot be in the interests of the Americans,” he noted. “Nationalism harms the economy, harms peace and harms people.”

Germany is not interested in supporting Trump. Europe seeks to seize this opportunity to achieve European unity.

Economic fears are increasingly compounded by military angst. As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry noted:

One development that is hastening European leaders’ efforts to boost their power is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency. Combine this with Russian President Vladimir Putin expanding his war in Ukraine, and Europeans are frightened!

The effect on Europe should not be underestimated.

In a 2019 interview with Die-Wirtschaft.at, former German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said he hoped “developments in China and the United States” would provide Europe a “final wake-up call” to unite. “According to Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Europe must quickly move closer together and show strength—also militarily,” the Austrian paper commented.

Asked how Europe should respond to U.S. and Chinese rivalries, Guttenberg replied:

First of all, I am convinced that Europe must position itself as a strong pillar and not lose sight of both directions. Whether this will work, however, depends on if, and to what extent, we can create European cohesion. First of all, one needs to see the antagonism between China and the U.S., and the resulting lines of conflict, as an opportunity for Europe. If you want to capitalize on China’s drive to expand and the renationalization of the U.S., Europe has to be more confident in carrying its unique economic area with over 500 million people forward.

Recent events may appear to lead to Europe’s economic ruin, but the Trumpet believes these events will actually unite Europe, just like Guttenberg demands. In August 1978, Herbert W. Armstrong warned:

The Europeans are far more disturbed about their safety in relying on United States military power to protect them than Americans realize! …

Europeans want their own united military power! They know that a political union of Europe would produce a third major world power, as strong as either the U.S. or the ussr—possibly stronger!

Remarkably, Mr. Armstrong also prophesied Britain would not be part of this union and unification would be a detriment to the U.S.

As we see calls for greater European unity in the face of U.S. isolation, we need to watch Germany. Mr. Flurry’s recent article “Germany’s Astonishing Military Rise” looks at the current state of affairs in light of Germany’s devastation at the close of World War ii and the Bible’s forecast for its future.