French Elections: A Crisis and an Opportunity for Germany
France has no idea how to form a functioning government after snap elections gave a surprising victory to the radical left.
All of Europe was watching these elections. The so-called far-right National Rally won first place in European elections held in June during the first round of voting in parliamentary elections. But France has a two-round system. In a minority of cases, a candidate has won more than 50 percent of the vote, winning the Parliament seats after just one round. But in most cases, this threshold is not met, so anyone who received the support of at least 12.5 percent of the electorate goes through to a second round.
The National Rally won a third of the vote in the first round, more than any other alliance.
Round two came a week later. Desperate not to let a party considered extreme into power, other major parties worked together. The right-wing candidate pulled out of the race if someone from the left had a better chance of winning—and vice versa.
It worked. In the popular vote, National Rally again took first place, this time with 37 percent of the vote. But thanks to tactical voting, it came in third place in terms of seats won.
The National Rally was kept out of power. But at what cost?
Rise of the Left
This is far from a major defeat for the National Rally. It won 143 seats in the 577-seat Parliament—much smaller than it had hoped for but an improvement over the 89 seats it had before the election. The real prize is the presidency, up for grabs in 2027. Now the National Rally is well positioned to take it.
But there was an even bigger winner.
France’s left wing took a beating in European elections. When national elections were called, they rushed to form an alliance: the New Popular Front. Tactical voting made them the surprise victors of the parliamentary vote, with 180 out of 577 seats.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads the largest party in the New Popular Front alliance and is demanding that he be made prime minister. But Mélenchon is as radical as the National Rally.
He’s an old-fashioned socialist, who wants a 90 percent tax rate on all income above €400,000—a retreat from his earlier demands for a 100 percent tax. He wants France’s generous system of welfare and workers’ rights expanded. His most popular policy is to reverse the rise in France’s pension age, bringing it back down from 64 to 60.
On the international front, he regards both nato and the European Union as too right wing and wants out of both.
He’s also pro-migration and has drawn support from France’s Muslims due to his party’s opposition to Israel and support of the Palestinians.
His stance has pushed French Jews into a surprising position. The National Rally is a rebrand of an older party, the National Front. Its leader was Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of the current leader, Marine Le Pen. The elder Le Pen was regularly in trouble for Holocaust denial, with statements like: “I’m not saying the gas chambers didn’t exist. I haven’t seen them myself. I haven’t particularly studied the question. But I believe it’s just a detail in the history of World War ii.”
Marine Le Pen has distanced her party from that past, even kicking out her father. But has the party really changed?
Mélenchon is so radical that he’s pushed many French Jews to embrace the National Rally for the first time.
As radical Islam exploded—and the rape of a Jewish girl simply because she was Jewish shocked the nation—Mélenchon denied any anti-Semitism problem. Now that his party has come in first place, he’s demanding France recognize a Palestinian state.
Bismarck’s Herring
There is another country Mélenchon doesn’t like: Germany.
A decade ago, he published a book titled Bismarck’s Herring, in which he warned that the “German empire is back.”
“She has become a danger to her neighbors and partners,” he writes. “I denounce her arrogance and so-called ‘model,’ imposed for her profit alone. A monster is born across the Rhine.”
Back then, he wanted France to stick it to Germany by printing billions of euros—giving the French state more cash but robbing German savers in the process. He’s in no position to take such a drastic step today, but the socialist policies he champions will be reflected to some extent in the new French government. And France can’t afford them.
France is over $3 trillion in debt—that’s 110 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Last month the European Central Bank found the country in violation of the EU’s spending rules. The Montaigne Institute estimates the New Popular Front’s spending package would cost $195 billion a year.
“It is exorbitant and would destroy everything we have achieved over the last seven years,” said outgoing Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. “The immediate risk is a financial crisis.”
A key indicator for how much people are worried about a European country is how much extra they have to pay to borrow money, compared to safe, low-debt Germany. In the lead-up to the election, this difference was the highest since the 2011 Greek debt crisis—over fears that the National Rally would win and lower the pension age. Now, even bigger spenders are the victors.
Greece running out of cash was a crisis for Europe. The French economy is 13 times the size of Greece’s. The Greek crisis was a quick rain shower compared to the hurricane a French debt crisis would bring on.
Germany’s Opportunity
France’s election result is a clear and present danger to Germany. Mass French spending risks a eurocrisis, and one of France’s most powerful leaders wants to deliberately attack the German economy.
But Germany also has an opportunity.
Mélenchon and his leftist radicals have a lot of power in Parliament—but they are far short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. Nobody comes close.
The French president nominates the next prime minister, but he needs the approval of Parliament to govern. It’s hard to see anyone getting that.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said he will not work with the National Rally. He’s also trying to split the New Popular Front, saying he will not work with Mélenchon and La France Insoumise but will work with the rest. But those two groups control 213 out of the 577 seats. There’s not much left to work with.
“France will probably be ungovernable for some time to come,” wrote John Keiger in the Spectator. He continued:
France now is confronted by paralysis and institutional crisis. France has had 16 constitutions since 1789. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and [La France Insoumise] have been calling for a sixth republic for years. That moment may be approaching.
Politico put it more simply: “Governing France will be hellish now.”
Ironically, Mélenchon’s victory may accelerate what he fears most: German domination of Europe. With France paralyzed and an anti-German crusader waiting in the wings, Germany may decide it has to act fast to further cement its dominance of Europe. Macron has already shown he’s willing to empower Germany if it suits his interest.
As the 2008 financial crisis got underway, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote:
The crisis in Greece is a forerunner of a whole rash of similar crises set to soon break out across Europe. They will provide the catalyst for the EU’s leading nation, Germany, to rise to the fore with solutions of its own making. Biblical prophecy declares that the result will be a European superstate with Germany at the helm. And that is not good news for America, Britain and the little nation called Israel.
France could be about to begin another act in this crisis.
The euro ties Germany’s fate to other countries. When countries like Greece and Cyprus got into financial trouble, Germany stepped in and bailed them out—it also took control of their spending, essentially running much of the country.
A French bailout would be much more painful. Instead, Germany has the opportunity to establish control over all Europe’s spending while France is divided, preventing the need for a bailout.
Germany’s current government may not be farsighted enough to seize that opportunity. But the euro was created to push countries toward the European superstate that voters have never wanted. It ties their economies so closely together that some form of common control over taxes and spending must be there; otherwise a country reckless with its spending imperils those that are much more careful.
Bible prophecy describes some major changes coming to Europe. Those changes are happening already—though few notice.
Revelation 17 describes a “beast” or empire led by a woman, biblical symbolism for a church. This empire rises and falls seven times. Only Europe hosts an empire strongly influenced by a church that has repeatedly risen and fallen.
In this last, modern incarnation, 10 kings or groups of nations “have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast” (verse 13). They combine forces, give their strength and power to this Holy Roman Empire, and become a powerful conquering force.
France has played a key role in this Holy Roman Empire in the past. Napoleon modeled his empire both on ancient Rome and Charlemagne’s Holy Roman Empire. They will be one of these nations, contributing their strength and power. But history and Bible prophecy show Germany will be the lead nation.
Germany will soon come out on top of this revived Holy Roman Empire. France’s instability gives Germany a powerful reason and opportunity to fast-track that moment.