Overnight, half of Libya shot a bullet into the Mediterranean economy. Squabbling between Libya’s two main factions means 60 to 70 percent of Libya’s 1 million-plus barrels of oil produced daily will at least momentarily stay underground. This threatens to create an economic war not just in North Africa, but the wider region.

Since 2020, Libya has been split between two governments. The western government has stronger international recognition and rules over most of Libya’s population. The eastern government controls most of Libya’s oil fields. Both governments have worked with the central bank, one of the few institutions with access to foreign currency. Because of this, the central bank is a necessary middleman to send oil from Libya to the rest of the world. It is the spore from which the current crisis is mushrooming.

Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who is close to the eastern government, has been in office since 2011. The western government, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, claims Kabir has been misusing funds and trying to remove him. Kabir claims Dbeibah, who has overstayed his mandate without new elections, has no authority to depose him. Dbeibah sent a delegation to take over central bank offices on August 26. Kabir and other senior staff fled Libya in response. “Militias are threatening and terrifying bank staff and are sometimes abducting their children and relatives to force them to go to work,” Kabir told the Financial Times on August 30.

The eastern government, led by warlord Khalifa Haftar, sees this as a financial power grab on Dbeibah’s part. In response, it cut off the central bank from its cash cow and halted oil production. On August 29, oil production worth about 700,000 barrels per day went offline. (Some oil fields have since received instructions to resume production.)

How Did We Get Here?

Since the 2011 Arab Spring, which overthrew Muammar Qadhafi, Libya has been in a near-constant civil war. A 2020 ceasefire ended hostilities, but the country has still been in a state of paralysis. Neither the western nor eastern government can stay afloat without strong foreign backing. Even Tripoli itself, where the western government is based, was carved up by competing militias until recently.

It wouldn’t take much to throw Libya back into civil war. Shutting down the impoverished country’s main export trade overnight is a pretty good excuse.

Many global powers have interests in Libya. Russia has been propping up the eastern government in exchange for cuts in oil revenue. Turkey is propping up the western government and saved it from being conquered by Haftar in the civil war. But the main power to watch in this crisis is Europe.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe has been trying to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels and look for alternative sellers. Libya’s proximity to Italy made it an obvious candidate. Eighty-five percent of Libyan oil this year made its way to Europe. The European Union is Libya’s largest export market by far. And Libya is the second-largest crude oil supplier to Italy itself.

The EU has larger oil suppliers than Libya. In 2019, Libya accounted for just over 6 percent of the EU’s crude oil and liquid natural gas imports. But it’s still one of Europe’s closer sources of fuel. It’s also a perennial trouble spot: Libya is a common stop for migrants meeting people smugglers to sail them to Europe.

Where Are We Going?

The more Libya causes problems for Europe, the more Europe is going to notice. And the more impetus Europe will have to do something.

“There might be someone in Europe, France or Italy most notably, who decides to go in, knock heads together and basically just take over the fields and run the country themselves as a colony,” geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan stated on August 29. “Libya, million barrels a day—it’s not that that’s insignificant, but it’s not enough of a shock to cause a political or a military action out of the European countries. But it is a little bit more pressure. So if something were to happen to, say, the Persian Gulf … then we’re in a different world. So it’s something to keep an eye on.”

This is exactly the scenario the Trumpet is expecting to happen. A prophecy in the book of Daniel reads: “And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over. … He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape. But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps” (Daniel 11:40, 42-43).

This end-time prophecy relates to two power blocs that will soon clash. The “king of the north” is a uniting European bloc. The “king of the south” is a radical Islamist bloc led by Iran. (See our relevant Trends article for more information.) Crucially, verse 43 shows Libya will ally with Iran.

“Why would Iran be so interested in gaining control over Libya and Ethiopia?” Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry asks in The King of the South. “Get a good map of the Middle East, particularly of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. You can quickly see why the king of the south, or radical Islam, is so interested in an alliance with or control over these two countries (as well as Egypt and Tunisia). They are on the two seas that comprise the most important trade route in the world!”

Taking over Libya and the Horn of Africa, Mr. Flurry writes, “could give Iran virtual control of the trade through those seas. Radical Islam could stop the flow of essential oil to the [United States] and Europe!”

Libya’s current crisis probably won’t mushroom into the Daniel 11 “push.” But it’s a reminder of how volatile Libya’s situation is—especially for Europe. But Europe won’t be the only region to face impact from what’s happening in Libya. Bible prophecy shows events in Libya will impact the whole world.

To learn more, request a free copy of The King of the South.