What Trump’s Return Means for Asia
What Trump’s Return Means for Asia
Trump 2.0 is shaking up the United States, but it is also sending reverberations around the globe, impacting friends and foes in every region. In Asia, U.S. adversaries may be preparing to walk a bit softer—for a short time anyway—and allies are contemplating a future when the region could be overlooked by the longtime global policeman.
Russia After Trump’s victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated him and described him as “courageous” and “a real man.” Putin’s ally, Dmitry Medvedev, said Trump’s win will be “useful” to Russia. Russian politician Alexander Dugin went a step further, writing, “So we have won. The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat. The future is finally open. I am really happy.”
It is not hard to understand these sentiments emanating from Moscow. During his campaign, Trump said he plans to lift the sanctions that America placed on Russia as punishment for its war on Ukraine, and that he aims to swiftly end the war by making Ukraine hand land and people over to Kremlin control. In February 2023, Mr. Trump said, “[T]here are certain areas that are Russian-speaking areas, right, … but you could have worked a deal.” These words must have delighted Putin and his cronies.
Russians are also optimistic because they despise the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which binds America and Europe as military allies, and they know Trump has misgivings about it. If Trump keeps chastising Europe for not spending enough on defense and levies tariffs on European products as he has threatened to do, it will weaken nato. A weaker nato equates to a freer hand for Russia to make war on nations it wishes to conquer.
On the other hand, the Russians well remember that it was Trump who blocked Nord Stream 2 during his first term, placing sanctions on the pipeline that would have doubled Russia’s natural gas exports to Germany. That was a notable step aimed at reducing Russian power over Europe. And if the Russians really thought Trump 2.0 would hand them an easy win over Ukraine, they were likely jolted on Nov. 11, 2024, when he tagged Congressman Mike Waltz as his national security advisor. Waltz, a former Green Beret, advocates for even heavier sanctions on Russia and wants to give Ukraine full permission to use U.S. weapons to strike deep inside Russia to end the war.
By appointing Waltz—and others such as Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth to lead the State Department and the Department of Defense, respectively—Trump may be showing that his comments about forcing Ukraine to give land and people to Russia were campaign bluster. He may be signaling an intent to challenge Russia’s aggression more resolutely than before.
We must also remember Winston Churchill’s observation that Russia is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” Remarks like those above from Putin, Medvedev and Dugin cannot be taken at face value. In many cases, the crafty Russians seek to divide Americans, so they say whatever they think will achieve their goals. Putin and other Russians know how they are perceived by most Americans. To sow discord, they often use reverse psychology, double-reverse psychology and other rhetorical subterfuge and deceit.
Despite their words, the Russian leaders are likely uneasy about Trump’s return, and more so with each hawkish appointment he makes. This could intensify the war in the weeks ahead as both Russia and Ukraine fight to improve their positions before any negotiations begin. And after Trump’s inauguration, Russia may tread lighter for a time to stay off his radar. But don’t expect the nation’s long-term imperialist aims to change in the slightest.
China During Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s congratulatory call to Trump the day after the election, he said he hopes the U.S. and China will “respect each other” and “coexist peacefully.” Such a statement would be encouraging if Xi were to back it up with steps to foster peace, such as ending China’s support for Russia’s war, incessant cyberassaults on the U.S., systematic theft from American companies, and the bullying of the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and other American partner nations. But Xi took no such steps. Instead, he called for respect and peace while continuing to lead China to antagonize the world in countless ways.
Though the words were hollow, it makes sense that Xi would try to cajole the new U.S. leader into going easy on China. America is the primary destination for China’s export-dependent economy—an economy suffering crippling debt rates, slowing growth and soaring youth unemployment.
Some of this hardship is because the Biden administration never ended the trade war Trump started during his first term. Joe Biden left Trump’s tariffs in place and even added to them with new duties on Chinese steel, solar cells and electric vehicles. Biden also implemented a series of export controls called the chips and Science Act, aimed at crippling China’s ability to fabricate advanced semiconductors that are vital to leading-edge technologies.
When Trump slammed the chips and Science Act as excessively expensive during his campaign, it would have been music to the ears of Xi and other Chinese Communist Party leaders. On the other hand, Trump also discussed ramping up tariffs during his second term, which might include a 60 percent duty on Chinese imports. Such a blow to China’s already fragile economy could cut around 2.5 percent off its projected growth.
Despite Trump’s threats, some Chinese leaders may still have cheered his return because of his view of Taiwan, the island nation they unlawfully claim and routinely threaten to invade. America’s partnership with Taiwan is all that has prevented such an invasion, and Trump has misgivings about that partnership. “I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in June 2024. “You know we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”
Such statements, along with Trump’s “America first” campaigning and aversion to war, have given the Chinese hope that he may turn a blind eye, or at least a squinted one, to their planned takeover of Taiwan. But these hopes would have likely faded in October when a Wall Street Journal reporter asked Trump if he would defend Taiwan if Xi invaded. “I wouldn’t have to,” he answered, “because he respects me and he knows I’m … crazy.” Trump added that a threat of up to 200 percent tariffs would keep the Chinese from ever attempting it.
Also notable is that days after Trump’s win, Taiwan began zealously responding to his complaints that they don’t buy enough U.S. weaponry to safeguard their freedom. The massive package of American arms they ordered includes 60 F-35 fighter jets and 400 Patriot missiles. This is bad news for Xi, significantly increasing the amount of blood he would have to spill to conquer Taiwan.
Overall, it seems the Chinese Communist Party is nervous about Trump 2.0. Xi and the others will likely be on somewhat better behavior under his watch, at least for a time. But that doesn’t mean there’s any meaningful change in the bellicose beat of the Chinese heart.
Japan, South Korea The situation with America’s allies such as South Korea and Japan is similar to what they faced during Trump’s first term. Their leaders remember that Trump placed little value on the alliances that his predecessors in the White House had built with their nations and that he often castigated them for not paying enough for U.S. military bases on their soil. Trump’s transactional approach to alliances terrified the leaders of these nations that had for decades counted on steadfast American benevolent protection.
South Korea and Japan hope their partnerships with Washington won’t be disrupted during Trump 2.0. But given Trump’s “America first” focus, they believe that counting on the U.S. is too risky to be their only plan of protection. Both nations are now building up their military power and even considering the development of the most powerful weapons on the planet. “The reelection of Trump is an opportunity for South Korea to create its own nuclear weapons,” South Korean political analyst Cheong Seong-Chang wrote on Nov. 8, 2024. “Mistrust of the U.S. is growing.”
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, meanwhile, has proposed “America’s sharing of nuclear weapons or the introduction of nuclear weapons into the region.”
South Korea and Japan are the world’s fifth- and seventh-strongest military powers, respectively. If they continue preparing for a future when they are no longer certain of U.S. protection and no longer sure of shelter under its nuclear umbrella, their firepower will reach stratospheric levels.
The ‘Kings of the East’
Much remains unknown about the details of Trump’s Asia policy and how his return will impact the region in the near term. If Trump, in his focus on putting America first, makes the U.S. less of a global policeman, the rise of Russia and China will accelerate, and countries such as South Korea and Japan will accelerate their rearmament and look for new alliances.
What we can be sure of based on Bible prophecy is a massive shift resulting in a realignment of Asia’s balance of power. Revelation 9:16 describes an army of 200 million soldiers that will soon form from this region—a force 15 times larger than any ever assembled in human history. Revelation 16:12 refers to this alliance as “the kings of the east,” meaning that it will be a coalition of multiple Asian countries. Ezekiel 38 and 39 reveal that Russia will be the head nation, with China in a secondary leadership position, and that multiple smaller Asian nations, likely including Japan and South Korea, will be compelled to join them—largely because America is no longer relevant in the region.
It is clear that dark and violent times will befall the Orient and the world. But the Bible makes clear that the darkness will not last long. A radiant future awaits the peoples of Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and all countries.