On November 27, over a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah came to an end. The two sides agreed to lay down their arms in what is intended to be lasting peace. The United States and France mediated in the discussions.

The agreement mandates:

• Hezbollah and Israel agree to stop attacking each other.
• Israel agrees to withdraw its soldiers from Lebanon over a period of 60 days.
• Hezbollah agrees to withdraw from southern Lebanon (roughly along the lines of the Litani River).
• The only Lebanese group permitted to operate in southern Lebanon is the official military of the Republic of Lebanon.
• The Lebanese government is responsible for ensuring Hezbollah does not remilitarize southern Lebanon.
• The Lebanese government will supervise any weapons sales, manufacturing and other acquirement.
• If Hezbollah violates the agreement, Israel is permitted, in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s words, “full freedom of military action” in Lebanon.
• The U.S. and France will serve as guarantors.
• The United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, unifil, will remain.

State of Affairs

A day after Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack on Israel last year, Hezbollah began bombarding Israel’s northern communities. This forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee south as refugees in their own country. Israel launched its invasion of Lebanon on October 1 this year. The immediate purpose of the invasion was to stop Hezbollah’s rocket bombardment, dismantle its terrorist infrastructure, and make Israel’s northern border safe enough for residents to return to their homes. Since then, Israel has undertaken a massive beheading program that has culled Hezbollah of most of its leadership. This included longtime Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

As Trumpet contributing editor Richard Palmer brought out in his morning brief, the agreement doesn’t mean smooth sailing just yet. The agreement is based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, the text that ended the 2005 Lebanon War. The guarantors of that last agreement failed to stand up to Hezbollah, causing the current predicament. Israel supposedly has the right to enforce terms with its own military; whether the U.S. or France would actually let Israel do so is another consideration.

But leaving that aside, the deal is a fairly good deal for Israel. Israel has already achieved its war aims: The ceasefire is confirmation that Israel can claim its winnings and go home.

“Hezbollah decided to attack us from Lebanon on October 8,” Netanyahu stated in announcing the ceasefire. “A year later, it is not the same Hezbollah. We have pushed them decades back. We eliminated Nasrallah, the axis of the axis. We have taken out the organization’s top leadership, we have destroyed most of their rockets and missiles, we have killed thousands of terrorists and we demolished their underground terror infrastructure abutting our border, infrastructure they had been building for years.”

Israel is leaving Lebanon with its war aims more or less fulfilled. Hezbollah has been neutered and humiliated. If Hezbollah tries to fix this, Israel has indisputable authority from the international community to nip the problem in the bud. That is assuming Hezbollah would want to take that risk anytime soon. That is assuming it would even be in a position to do so.

There is one war aim Israel failed to fulfill—with its own soldiers. But there is every indication Israel still intends to fulfill this aim post-ceasefire.

Revolution?

On October 8 this year, the one-year anniversary of Hezbollah starting its bombardment, Netanyahu released a video addressed “to the people of Lebanon.” He essentially called for revolution:

Stand up and take your country back. You have an opportunity that hasn’t existed in decades. An opportunity to take care of the future of your children and grandchildren. You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza. It doesn’t have to be that way. Each of you can take a step for your future. Even a small step. You can make a difference. I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end. Free your country from Hezbollah so that your country can prosper again, so that future generations of Lebanese and Israeli children will know neither war nor bloodshed, but will finally live together in peace.

Hezbollah, as Netanyahu said, is not the same as it was a year ago. Its leadership has been decapitated. Its elite Radwan Force has been bled dry. The pagers attack has left Hezbollah paranoid of using any electronic communication. Its arsenal of missiles and rockets has been cut down by the thousands.

Hezbollah also has a lot of enemies in Lebanon. Some, like the Lebanese Forces, a Catholic militia, have had a bone to pick with Hezbollah for decades. If these groups wanted to oust Hezbollah from power, now would be the time.

Before the war, Hezbollah portrayed itself “as an invincible or undefeated factor in the region,” analyst Avi Melamed told the Trumpet. “Now, it’s in a totally different place—in a place that … Hezbollah in its worst nightmares did not anticipate a year ago.”

Are there any signs that Lebanon could be ripe for revolution?

Consider this: Israel violated Lebanese sovereignty (after Hezbollah violated Israeli sovereignty). It sent its own soldiers across the border and fought battles with Hezbollah, which likes to portray itself as “the defender of Lebanese independence.” When a foreign country sends soldiers across one’s border, the armed forces often see a swell in recruitment. Thousands enlist to defend their homeland. That’s what we saw in Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2022. That’s what we saw in Israel after Hamas’s invasion.

We didn’t see mass enlistment among the Lebanese. There was no swell of new recruits. The Lebanese Armed Forces didn’t even launch any significant counterattack. Everybody in Lebanon except Hezbollah sat this out.

Israel kept its incursions to the border areas. If it marched to Beirut, we may have seen a different response. Many Lebanese also probably were wary of engaging the powerful Israel Defense Forces head-on. But Lebanese society gave Hezbollah tepid support at best, even though their sovereignty was challenged.

Hezbollah exists primarily to “wipe the Jewish state off the map.” Netanyahu knows Israel isn’t in the clear until Hezbollah has been neutralized once and for all. He could have done it himself. Even with the international community’s pressure for a ceasefire, he could have marched the idf to Beirut in a heartbeat but didn’t.

Attempting to uproot Hezbollah himself could have given Netanyahu an even bigger quagmire domestically and internationally. Instead, he weakened Hezbollah but left it standing for somebody else to launch the coup de grâce. It could have the same effect with a minimal cost.

Netanyahu may be trying to have his cake and eat it too.

What We’re Watching For

Psalm 83 is a prophecy of a group of Middle Eastern nations allying themselves with Germany and the European Union. Verse 7 mentions Gebal and Tyre, cities that still exist in Lebanon today. Because of this, we expect Lebanon to ally with Europe. Daniel 11:40 describes a German-led Europe, under the prophetic name “the king of the north,” going to war against Iran and its allies, “the king of the south.” We have Trends articles explaining both these prophecies in detail (theTrumpet.com/16032 and theTrumpet.com/15726).

Lebanon under Hezbollah has been in Iran’s camp for several decades. But because of Psalm 83, we expect Lebanon to change allegiance at some point. The most likely way this would happen would be if Hezbollah leaves power.

Hezbollah has never been more vulnerable than it is now. If its enemies inside Lebanon wanted to change the status quo, now is their opportunity, before Hezbollah regroups and recovers.

This ultimately isn’t good news for Israel. The Psalm 83 alliance forms out of a common desire “that the name of Israel may be no more in remembrance” (verse 4). The alliance forms to attack Israel rather than save it.

Any rejoicing over the ceasefire’s terms and its future fallout is dangerously premature.

Our November-December print issue has an article with more detail on what we can expect for Lebanon in the future. Read it to get the biblical perspective for what is happening in the Middle East. Also request a free annual subscription of our magazine for prophetically relevant news from all over the world.