Why the U.S. Can’t Afford to Attack Iran
It seems there is no end to discussion about a possible U.S. military strike on Iran.
On the one hand, there is the powerful United States with the greatest military in the world. On the other is a rogue state—the greatest terrorism-sponsoring country in the world—which is providing insurgents, arms and funding for attacks against U.S. forces. The U.S. commander in chief has just a few months left in office; he doesn’t have to worry about votes in the next election. Some believe a decisive strike against Iran could improve his legacy.
Hence, some expect President George W. Bush to order a strike against Iran before his days at the White House are finished.
President Bush’s options, however, have diminished over the past few years. The U.S. is far more vulnerable than many would assume.
The core of America’s problem is that it is increasingly being threatened by regional powers intent on knocking it off its superpower perch. The U.S. is already fighting two wars simultaneously in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has limited military resources left. If these were to be absorbed by a crisis involving Iran—whether instigated by the U.S. or Tehran—the U.S. would likely lack sufficient military resources to respond meaningfully to any other crises. In other words, the world would be an open playing field for other powers to do whatever they liked.
This is America’s current predicament.
“U.S. forces are stretched perilously thin from the Middle East to Northeast Asia, and top-level U.S. military planners are trying to do something before yet another conflict flares up beyond the strength and ability of the Pentagon to do anything about it.” This was essentially the message of Army Chief of Staff Gen. George W. Casey Jr., speaking at the National Press Club in Washington earlier this month, according to Asia Times Online. “If the demands don’t go down over time,” Casey said, “it will be increasingly difficult for us to meet those demands.”
Stratfor explained, “To an extraordinary degree, the United States does not have a real strategic reserve in its ground forces, the Army and the Marines” (August 21). If the U.S. became militarily engaged with Iran, “The United States would be throwing all of its chips on the table, with few reserves left. With all U.S. forces engaged in a line from the Euphrates to the Hindu Kush, the rest of the world would be wide open to second-tier powers.”
At the same time, if a non-Iranian crisis arose that demanded an American response, “all pressure on Iran would be lifted,” says Stratfor. “The United States is strategically tapped out.”
Essentially, the U.S. has backed itself into a corner. Stratfor asserts that President Bush “lacks the sheer military resources to achieve any meaningful goal without the use of nuclear weapons” (ibid.).
This is a situation the Trumpet has been keeping an eye on for some time. Biblical prophecy reveals that the days of America being the world’s singular superpower are numbered. We stand by Herbert W. Armstrong’s declaration in 1961 that, unless the U.S. as a whole repents, “the United States of Americahas won its last war” (Plain Truth, October 1961).
Stratfor stated:
The United States has entered a place where it has almost no room to maneuver. The president is becoming a lame duck in the fullest sense of the term. This opens a window of opportunity for powers, particularly second-tier powers, that would not be prepared to challenge the United States while its forces had flexibility.
One such power in particular has recently started flexing its muscle more threateningly. Not only is Russia beefing up its military and making aggressive moves in parts of the former Soviet Union, it has announced the resumption of patrols in the Atlantic Ocean, along the U.S. coast. “During the Cold War,” points out Stratfor, “patrols such as these were designed to carry out electronic and signal intelligence.”
More than only making a political gesture by such actions, says Stratfor, the Russians “are trying to redefine the global balance.” Stratfor went on to explain:
[W]hen American aircraft on the East Coast start to scramble routinely to intercept and escort Russian aircraft, two things happen. First, U.S. military planning has to shift to take Russia into account. Second, the United States loses even more flexibility. It can’t just ignore the Russians. It now needs to devote scarce dollars to upgrading systems along the East Coast …. The increased Russian tempo of operations in areas that the United States has been able to ignore for many years further pins the United States.
In this context, President Bush’s options in the Middle East decline further. “The United States already has limited options against Iran. The more the Russians maneuver, the more the United States must hold what forces it has left—Air Force and Navy—in reserve. Launching an Iranian adventure becomes that much more risky. If it is launched, Russia has an even greater window of opportunity. Every further involvement in the region makes the United States that much less of a factor in the immediate global equation” (ibid.).
Based on biblical prophecy, the Trumpet does not believe Russia will attack the U.S. At this stage, American policy makers do not believe this either. Still, the fact that Russia—along with China and Europe and a host of smaller powers—is actively trying to limit U.S. influence in the world takes away Washington’s power to act. Its contingency planning has to take this into consideration.
When current and future alliances are taken into account, America’s position becomes even more vulnerable. America’s enemies—the U.S. is hated by most of the world—bide their time for their opportunity to change the global balance of power. The more the U.S. becomes tied down in the Middle East, the wider the opportunity for these other powers.
Of course, America’s options concerning Iran looked much different several years ago, before U.S. forces became almost exhausted by the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. It was at that time the Trumpet pointed out that the only way for the U.S. to eradicate the scourge of terrorism would be to target the “head of the terrorist snake”—Iran.
But, lacking the willpower to do so then, a weakened America is now up against a strengthened foe. Today, Iran’s involvement in terrorism—whether it be in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Israel or Lebanon—is in plain view, and is attracting much attention. It is becoming obvious to some that Tehran must be dealt with more forcefully, and directly. But is it too late?
Because America did not have the will to deal with Iran when it more easily could have, today it is doubtful it has the military bandwidth to do so even if it wanted to.
This whole situation—the lack of political will, the inadequacy of even a massive military, and the increase in global enemies—fulfills a biblical prophecy, that of curses descending upon America as a result of its rebellion against God. It further proves the veracity of Mr. Armstrong’s 1961 prophecy that the U.S. had won its last war.
Watch for such trends to continue, and for the U.S., despite its still-great military strength, to lack the power to direct and even influence world events. Soon, it will not only be the presidency of the U.S. that will be a lame duck, but the country itself.