Vladimir Putin has officially announced his choice of who will succeed him when his second term expires next year: Dmitry Medvedev. Putin’s endorsement almost guarantees Medvedev will replace him as president, but it also guarantees that the new president will not replace Putin as Russia’s leader.

Currently serving as first deputy prime minister and the chairman of state-run gas juggernaut Gazprom, Medvedev has known Putin for more than 17 years. Medvedev worked as a lawyer in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, where he met Putin. His background includes working as a St. Petersburg State University assistant professor and in the city council before joining Putin’s external affairs team in the 1990s as a consultant to the St. Petersburg mayor.

Although his legal career was successful, Medvedev was not seen as a public figure.

“His was a modest role, he was a man in the shadows,” Leonid Keslman, a St. Petersburg political scientist, said. “He was an economist, a technocrat, he was not a public man, and that is what he remains.”

Medvedev became Kremlin deputy chief of staff in 1999 and was chosen by Putin to head his election campaign in 2000. On Putin’s coattails, he became chairman of Gazprom two years later and Putin’s chief of staff in 2003. In 2005, Putin boosted Medvedev to first deputy prime minister, in charge of social programs.

Medvedev’s involvement in bolstering education, health, agriculture and other social initiatives may have been pre-arranged in order to raise his electability.

Economically, Medvedev has said he supports foreign investment in Russian companies and that “We aim to create big Russian corporations and will back their foreign economic activities.”

Although Medvedev says he supports an amount of freedom in the financial sector and is part of a new post-Communist generation of Russian politicians, few believe he will stand on his own legs as a candidate and that Vladimir Putin will retire to St. Petersburg to write his book.

“While no intellectual pushover, Medvedev is not a man of his own mind,” Stratfor reports. “From Putin’s point of view, Medvedev’s key qualitites are his creativity and his loyalty” (December 10).

Putin’s insiders typically are old security or intelligence hands, but Medvedev’s background as a lawyer and technocrat make him easier to control. Stratfor’s analysis is that President Medvedev puts an agreeable face on Russian politics but allows Putin to play the puppetmaster.

Watch for Vladimir Putin to use Medvedev to increase his own sway over Russia’s direction. And be ready to watch Russian democracy die in the process. For more on the future of Russia, read Russia and China in Prophecy.