In a sign of things to come, German Vice Chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier has made an early visit to Russia’s new president-elect, Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev is the chairman of Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom, with whom Germany’s ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder holds a senior executive position.

The publicized reason for Steinmeier’s visit to Russia was to inaugurate a new gas field which is a joint Russo-German project involving the Bavarian-centered chemicals corporate monolith, basf.

In fact, as Deutsche Welle reported, Steinmeier would also be involved in discussions on “troubling issues” during his visit (December 18). Although media commentary centers on human rights as the main topic of such “troubling issues,” it is highly unlikely that the pro-Russian Steinmeier will refrain from developing discourse with the incoming Russian president on differences between his own traditional support for Russian-German rapport and the more aloof stance of his present boss, Chancellor Merkel. The question of the present strained relationship between Berlin and Moscow is becoming an increasingly hot potato within Merkel’s government.

To further emphasize the politics of the Russian-German relationship involving Gazprom, Axis reports, “it is necessary to remember that the center of activity of the German chemical giant basf, which signed in April 2005 a large-scale contract for delivery of gas to Europe with Russian Gazprom, is situated in Bavaria. The management of this concern is connected to the leadership of the [Christian Socialist Union] by a decade of close cooperation, including the field of financing party activity” (Aug. 29, 2005). That close cooperation was mentored by former Bavarian Prime Minister Edmund Stoiber.

At the time the basf-Gazprom deal was signed, Axis further reported, “A leitmotif of his [Stoiber’s] statements concerning Russia was the constant reaffirmation of the strategic partnership between Berlin and Moscow in the economic area. Considering all that, Stoiber—as against the allies in opposition, the leaders of the cdu, has never dared to voice any critical statements referring to the Russian President Putin and his internal policy. … In the view of all the above, Edmund Stoiber is perceived today in Moscow as the politician capable … to preserve the strategic union of Germany and Russia, created by the [now former] Chancellor Schröder” (ibid., emphasis ours).

It is unquestionably obvious that the “strategic union” between Germany and Russia has suffered significant reversals since Angela Merkel assumed the chancellorship of Germany. That this may prove to be her coalition’s nemesis is becoming clearer by the day.

The prospects of existing strong links between Putin, Schröder, Steinmeier and Stoiber being put into play to fracture Germany’s fragile coalition government and promote a more Russia-friendly German foreign policy would appear to be just too tempting for those in question to avoid. Should Gazprom turn off the tap in the depth of the European winter—as it has during the past two years, chilling German households in the process—this could well sway public opinion against Merkel and for a more Russia-friendly chancellor. These four prominent politicians have nothing to lose and everything to gain by such a move. It may be just a question of time before they trigger it.

Perhaps that very strategy was one of the “troubling issues” that Frank-Walter Steinmeier discussed with President-elect Medvedev during his visit to Moscow this week.