U.S. Intelligence Head: Iran May Have Nukes by 2009
Iran “would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon” by the end of 2009, says National Intelligence Director Vice Adm. John Michael McConnell. Speaking before the Senate Intelligence Committee, McConnell took a dramatic step back from the infamous conclusions of the National Intelligence Estimate (nie) released only two months ago.
“If I had ’til now to think about it, I probably would change a few things,” said McConnell about the nie. “I would change the way we describe the Iranian nuclear program. I would have included that there are the component parts, that the portion of it, maybe the least significant, had halted.”
As the U.S. News and World Reportput it:
This week’s Annual Threat Assessment appearance on Capitol Hill by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, seemed to stand in contrast to two months ago, when the public version of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran blew up a policy storm with its conclusion—in spite of heated rhetoric to the contrary—that Iran had halted its work on how to design and build a nuclear warhead way back in 2003.
It was as though the lyrics were much the same as in the recent past, but the tone of the music had darkened noticeably.
McConnell pointed out that key parts of the weapons development programs were still going ahead:
The only thing that they’ve halted was nuclear weapons design, which is probably the least significant part of the program. …
Declared uranium enrichment efforts, which will enable the production of fissile material, continue. This is the most difficult challenge in nuclear production. Iran’s efforts to perfect ballistic missiles that can reach North Africa and Europe also continue.
So the free world does need to worry about Iran after all. It is still working hard on the most difficult aspects of developing a nuclear weapon.
McConnell also stated that it was unclear if Iran had returned to full-scale nuclear weapon production within the past six months.
These statements, however, come too late—the damage has already been done. Several nations have referred to the nie in justifying their ongoing dealings with Iran. McConnell’s recent statements won’t change that. They have received limited press coverage compared to the nie’s conclusions.
The nie made it far more difficult for any U.S. government to deal strongly with Iran. Liberal peaceniks in Washington and the media are not going to let any new statements by the national intelligence director change that.