Middle East

President Pervez Musharraf’s allies suffered defeat in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections on February 18. Musharraf has now become a lame-duck president and could even get forced from power. Opposition parties won enough seats to form a new government, but whether a stable government actually emerges is another matter. The Islamists also suffered a setback in the election, though this could simply mean they will concentrate on more subversive means to gain power. James Dobbins, the U.S. envoy in Afghanistan following 9/11, cited “substantial dangers that Pakistan society will continue to fragment.” If this happens, and there is a period of weak civilian government, Islamic extremists will inevitably gather further strength.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, Islamic fundamentalism is rapidly growing more popular as it is embraced by Egyptian youth, according to the New York Times. “In 1986,” the Timeswrote, “there was one mosque for every 6,031 Egyptians, according to government statistics. By 2005, there was one mosque for every 745 people—and the population has nearly doubled.” The Egyptian government under President Hosni Mubarak is becoming more Islamic to accommodate the growing popularity of Islam, but it is the Muslim Brotherhood which has the most to gain. Conditions in Egypt are building toward a radical change in the nation’s politics, an event the Trumpet has predicted for a number of years.

In Iraq, recent developments suggest the U.S.’s position could be slipping, according to Stratfor. Some 80,000 former Sunni insurgent fighters have been used by the U.S. to fight al Qaeda and counterbalance the Shiite security force. The Sunnis want these fighters to be incorporated into the Iraqi government and security forces—but Iran and its Shiite allies in Iraq will not accept this. As a result, tension between the Sunnis and the U.S. is increasing, with 2,000 Sunni volunteers resigning, and more threatening to. At the same time, internal division is growing within both the Sunni and Shiite communities. It is Iran which has both the motive and the power to continue to foment unrest in Iraq in order to back the U.S. into a corner. Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is due to visit Baghdad March 2, which could not be happening without some level of U.S. cooperation. “The United States will, after all, be at least informally in charge of Ahmadinejad’s security during the visit,” Stratfor writes. Iran may be getting closer to getting what it wants in Iraq.

In the face of a multitude of threats, it appears Israel is increasingly looking to Germany as a much-needed ally. Early last week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert paid a visit to Berlin, meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss the increased rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip as well as the need to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Merkel said Germany would support an Israel Defense Forces operation in Gaza and that Israel has every right to defend itself. Israel’s leaders may in fact be considering doing just that: launching an attack on Gaza—and then falling back on the international community to bail them out. “We are talking about the Second Lebanon War model,” an Israeli defense official told the Jerusalem Post. “To go to war and tell the world that if they want a cease-fire and for us to leave then they will need to send a force to replace us.” Israel’s trust in foreigners has not worked before, and it is prophesied to be the country’s undoing in the future.

Meanwhile, a letter sent by a Catholic cardinal in the name of the pope to bishops worldwide last week, calling for Catholics to donate money for Christians in Israel, was a reminder that the Vatican has a strong interest in Israel. The Catholics who reside in the Holy Land, Cardinal Leonardo Sandri wrote, are a priority for the entire Catholic Church.

Europe

The Balkans were back on the front page this week as Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. Countries around the world including the United Kingdom, the United States, France and Germany have recognized Kosovo’s independence. By doing this, they defy the wishes of Russia. In the weeks leading up to this, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that Russia does not support an independent Kosovo. If the rest of the world now ignores Russia, it will look weak and unable to defend its allies. As Stratfor points out, either Putin made a terrible mistake in coming out so strongly against Kosovar independence, or Russia has something planned to back up its rhetoric. Based on past experience with Putin, the former is unlikely to be true. A clash between Europe and Russia will very soon be inevitable. Watch for such a clash to bring about a compromise position on Kosovo between the two that will be to the detriment of the U.S. and its allies and which will ultimately lead to further integration and militarization in Europe.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed a new EU elite defense force this week, comprised of forces from the six biggest EU states: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy and Poland. As individual member nations’ forces continue to take steps toward marching under one banner, EU defense spending will become far more efficient, and the Union will become far more powerful.

Hundreds of Muslim youth in Denmark have taken to the streets this week in violent riots. It is widely believed the riots were aggravated in large part by 17 Danish newspapers reprinting a controversial cartoon showing the Islamic prophet Mohammed wearing a bomb for a turban. The printing of the cartoon sparked similar riots in 2006. The reprinting is a deliberate statement by the Danish that Islamists will not dictate what they can or cannot print. Tensions between Europe and the Islamic world are escalating toward a clash of civilizations.

Asia

As a result of rising tensions between Russia and Europe, the Belarus Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that Moscow is negotiating the sale of an advanced S-400 anti-aircraft/anti-missile defense system to Belarus. This air defense system would be able to detect, intercept and destroy airborne targets at a distance of up to 250 miles. Moscow is also planning on constructing a second S-400 air defense system for northwestern Russia in the near future.

Since Belarus is a Russian ally, both of these air defense systems would be on the border linking the Russian and EU spheres of influence. These defense systems are likely Russia’s retaliation against U.S. plans to put an anti-missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Belarus defense minister stated that the U.S. missile interceptors planned to be placed in Poland would undermine the balance of forces in the region. Russia’s decision to install its own anti-missile defense shield is the next move in an escalating arms race between Russia and the West.

China is taking Russia’s side in this arms race, joining Russia in criticizing the United States for using a missile to destroy a defunct U.S. satellite in space. Yet even as China accuses the U.S. of being militaristically imperialistic in outer space, Beijing plans on launching more than 10 spacecraft this year.

Together, Russia and China, along with their allies, are stepping into the superpower role vacated by the former Soviet Union. Expect this development to further escalate tensions between Asia and the West, especially Europe.

Africa, Latin America

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the Kremlin this week. In the midst of heightened cooperation, Russia has agreed to build railroads in Algeria, to start extracting oil in Algeria by 2011, and to sign an air communications agreement increasing the number of flights between the capitals. As the race for African resources grows between Europe, the United States and China, Russia is making its presence stronger in Africa too.

Instability continues in Kenya. Stratfor observes that because the U.S. relies on Kenya’s cooperation for counterterrorism operations, it is loath to apply too much pressure to force a resolution.

In Latin America, the moment the U.S. has awaited for 50 years is finally here: Cuban despot Fidel Castro announced his resignation. Ever since Castro brought the world to the brink of war by allowing America’s enemy to install nuclear missiles in his island nation, he has been the poster boy for anti-Americanism. He has also inspired a host of imitators in Latin America, including Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales. The Cuban National Assembly will meet February 24 to appoint a successor—almost certainly Fidel’s brother Raul, who has held power throughout Fidel’s illness and recovery from intestinal surgery.

Anglo-America

A U.S. Navy operation scored a direct hit on a deteriorating reconnaissance satellite on Wednesday, using a modified missile fired from a Navy cruiser to destroy the bus-sized orbiter, which was traveling at 17,000 mph in low Earth orbit, 150 miles above the surface of the Pacific. Although Washington insists the operation was conducted to keep debris and dangerous hydrazine fuel from hitting the Earth’s surface, the exercise is seen by some as a test of missile-defense and satellite-targeting technology. Beijing has been the loudest complainer, along with Moscow, in spite of the fact that it shot down a satellite of its own a little over a year ago in an unannounced and abrupt operation. Washington’s heavy reliance on satellite technology makes it particularly vulnerable.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Okinawans and Japanese officials are furious at a rape allegation leveled at a U.S. marine stationed on Okinawa. U.S. Ambassador Thomas Schieffer flew to the island last week to offer personal apologies for the situation and a promise of tighter military discipline in the future. However, Schieffer’s apology was followed by another marine getting arrested for drunk driving and a third found drunk on a sofa in the Okinawan house he had broken into. These incidents prompted Japanese officials to say they will take the issue up with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice when she visits Japan next week. More than 40,000 American troops are stationed in Japan, but Tokyo is already taking on more of its own military responsibility, and has been looking for reasons to draw down its reliance on the American military.

Across the Atlantic, a recent Royal United Services Institute report states that “[t]he United Kingdom presents itself as a target, as a fragmenting, post-Christian society, increasingly divided about interpretations of its history, about its national aims, its values and its political identity.” Though strongly criticized by the British government, the report gives deep insight into Britain’s security problems. Britain has promoted a multicultural society that shuns the idea of imposing a single British identity on the nation. However, this policy of promoting ethnic and cultural diversity has actually further segregated ethnic minorities and undermined the efforts of those trying to fight extremism, all in the name of tolerance.