Falling Dollar = Rising Prices
This year has not been good for the dollar. Here is a quick roundup on how much more commodities ranging from A to Z are costing U.S. consumers.
On Monday, the dollar fell to all-time lows against the European currency. It now takes $1.52 to purchase one euro. The dollar reached a three-year low against the Japanese yen. The dollar also hit or neared multi-year lows against currencies ranging from the Swiss franc to the Colombian peso to the Australian dollar. At current exchange rates, the U.S. dollar value is again worth less than its Canadian cousin.
While the dollar’s value has cascaded, the price of most commodities are soaring.
On March 3, the price of oil hit a new record high at $103.95 per barrel, surpassing its old inflation-adjusted high. The old high of $39.50 set in 1980, when adjusted for inflation, comes to $103.76. According to the International Herald Tribune (March 3; emphasis mine),
The rising prices of the past decade failed to dent global economic growth as consumers absorbed the higher costs thanks to easy credit and rising prosperity in the United States. In developing countries, government subsidies helped ease the pain. The rise in prices was a result of expanding wealth globally.
The trend has not slowed down much even with the United States economy at a near standstill. Global oil consumption is still expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year, driven by demand in China and the Middle East. Still, the surge in oil prices is markedly different from the energy crises of the 1970s and 1980s. Those were brought about by sudden interruptions in oil supplies, like in the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian revolution of 1979, or the outbreak of the war between Iran and Iraq in 1980.
If the International Herald Tribune is correct, high oil prices are not just a consequence of a falling dollar, but due to supply and demand fundamentals. It is very possible that high oil prices are here to stay.
Oil is not the only commodity hitting record highs. On Monday, gold jumped as high as $989.30 per ounce—drastically higher than the $380 per ounce it was trading at in May 2004. Gold is still beneath its 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $2,400 in today’s dollars. The dollar has lost 18 percent against gold so far this year. Reuters says investors are moving into precious metals to insulate themselves against rising inflation worries and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates again—further undermining the dollar.
On Monday, silver also set a new multi-year high. It crossed the $20-per-ounce mark for the first time since 1980. The price of silver is still far below its 1980 high of $48.70, which when adjusted for inflation would be approximately $137 per ounce today.
Platinum hit a record of $2,230 per ounce on February 22. Palladium rose to $576 per ounce, its highest in more than six years.
“This is not just gold or oil or silver,” said James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California-San Diego. “Virtually every commodity has gone up quite a bit in price. Although the consumer has already been feeling some of the effects of rising prices, it will take some time for many of these prices to hit the consumers’ budgets.”
But the rising price of rice, wheat, corn and other foods are hitting budgets. Rice just hit a 20-year high. A 50-pound bag of flour cost approximately $11 in February 2007; it now sells for about $30. On March 3, corn hit a record $5.73 per bushel, while soybeans also neared all-time highs. The price of apples has risen from about $2 per pound to $4.25, and the cost of walnuts is up from $65 for 30 pounds to $165.
As long as the U.S. dollar continues to fall, the general price trend for commodities will probably be up—and that means higher prices for everything from apple wax to zebra feed—and pinched pocketbooks for Americans.
For years, the Trumpet has been warning readers to reduce their standard of living. To learn ways to financially prepare for future economic trouble, read “Storm-Proof Your Financial House” and The Seven Laws of Success by Herbert W. Armstrong.