The mindset of the Taiwanese people is undergoing an unprecedented change. Nowhere is this change clearer than in the drastic realignment of Taiwan’s political leadership.

On Saturday, March 22, the Taiwanese people elected Kuomintang party candidate Ma Ying-jeou as their next president. The scale of Ma’s victory was unprecedented in Taiwanese electoral history. He took 58 percent of all votes cast—a full 16 percentage points more than his next-closest rival.

As Time magazine put it: “Ma Ying-jeou, the new president of Taiwan, has been handed a mandate to radically alter his country’s relationship with China in a way that can potentially redraw the political map of East Asia.”

Ma’s new direction for Taiwan is drastically different from that of outgoing Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.

Chen’s position was that Taiwan was a sovereign and independent nation that should have its own seat in the United Nations. “Taiwan is one country and the other side [mainland China] is another country and neither side exercises jurisdiction over the other,” Chen said in a bbc interview in 2004 following his re-election. “I think this important consensus has been reached during this election and it represents and signifies that the 23 million people of Taiwan, irrespective of their political affiliations or whether they are in the opposition parties or the governing party—they all refuse the one-country/two-systems formula.”

If the consensus in 2004 was that Taiwan should move toward independence, the consensus has now changed.

Ma’s position is that Taiwan and mainland China are one country, governed under two systems. His promise to the Taiwanese people is that “We would not pursue de jure independence …. We would resume negotiations on the basis of the 1992 consensus [forged during talks in Hong Kong]—in short, ‘one China, different interpretations.’”

As a fierce critic of President Chen’s pro-independence, anti-Chinese rhetoric, Ma is seeking to dramatically “improve” Taiwan’s relationship with the mainland. In addition to resuming negotiations with China on the status quo of Taiwan, he intends to expand Taiwan’s economic ties with the mainland by:

• Establishing direct airline transportation routes between Taiwan and China,
• Lifting restrictions on Taiwanese businessmen operating in China,
• Opening the Taiwanese economy up to Chinese investors, and
• Allowing Chinese tourists into Taiwan.

On the military side of things, Ma has broached the idea of establishing confidence-building measures with the mainland designed to scale back the armaments buildup along the Taiwan Strait.

As Ma said, “The end of this election is the beginning of change.”

Just months ago, Taiwanese leaders were talking about trying to join the United Nations as an independent state. Now the idea of such a referendum has been officially rejected as the new Taiwanese leader talks about disarming the Taiwan Strait. This radical change goes beyond Taiwan’s new leader; it is rooted in the mindset of the populace. Back in January, Ma’s political party almost doubled its representation in the Taiwanese parliament as the number of seats held by Kuomintang candidates went from 38 percent to 72 percent. And now Ma has gained the presidency in the greatest landslide vote in Taiwan’s electoral history.

Why?

In a 2005 interview with Newsweek, this is what Ma said on the subject: “[I]f Taiwan makes a provocative move, [mainland China] would be left with no choice but to use force. So the most important thing for Taiwan is to maintain the status quo, not to provoke the mainland, but increase trade and investment and to relax cross-Strait relations.”

The core of the issue is that Taiwan’s relationship with America has deteriorated to the point where the Taiwanese people no longer feel safe from China. With no friends to rely on, the Taiwanese people are trying to patch up their differences with China in an effort to avoid invasion.

It must be remembered that the current government of Taiwan is the last remnant of the Chinese Kuomintang regime, which was overrun by Communist rebels under Mao Zedong in 1949. These Communist forces established the People’s Republic of China on the Chinese mainland, forcing the Kuomintang regime to become a government in exile on the island of Formosa (now called Taiwan). Taiwan has at no time in its history been controlled by Communist China.

The U.S. originally supported the Taiwanese in an effort to oppose communism and champion democracy. It was this support that kept mainland China from overrunning the island long ago. Both the 1954 Mutual Defense Treaty and the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act promise U.S. defense of the island. President Ronald Reagan went even further, giving six assurances to Taiwan, including continuing arms sales and an assurance that the United States would not recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

“Without America’s military and psychological support, [Taiwan] would have already been conquered by mainland China,” wrote Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry in “Taiwan Betrayal” in 1998.

Recent years have revealed cracks in the U.S.-Taiwan alliance. In July 1998, Bill Clinton traveled to China and became the first U.S. president to publicly oppose Taiwanese independence in favor of the “one country, two systems” formula. Clinton would not endorse either Taiwanese independence or Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, but preferred that the situation remain in limbo. In December 2003, George Bush vocalized his commitment to the same ideal.

America is afraid to stand too strongly at Taiwan’s side for fear that it will upset China. The recent U.S. opposition to Chen’s pursuit of a referendum—and any other activity that could escalate cross-Strait tensions—has left Taiwan wondering what happened to the strong relationship it used to share with America. The U.S. has put what it believes is in its own national interest above its commitment to the freedom of Taiwan, and the Taiwanese are now beginning to realize that America might not protect them from Beijing after all.

“For decades, Taiwan has been a loyal and obedient partner of the United States,” Chen said. “Now we are left to ask what went wrong.”

Little wonder, then, that the Taiwanese voted to express their discomfort with Chen’s pro-independence, anti-Chinese policies. In the absence of American support, they feel they must cultivate closer ties with China if they are to survive. That is why they are turning to Ma Ying-jeou, a man who admitted to Newsweek that his ultimate goal—once conditions are right—was reunification with the mainland.

The Kuomintang vision for Taiwan-China relations will not guarantee Taiwan’s ongoing independence; rather, it will bring Taiwan one step closer to complete reunification with the mainland. Beijing remains committed to establishing its dominance over the Taiwanese people. That is why the Beijing government is continuing its arms buildup along the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is happy enough to let Ma move Taiwan closer to China, but once he does that, the Taiwanese will never be allowed to move further away again.

Herbert W. Armstrong, the late founder and editor in chief of the Trumpet’s predecessor, the Plain Truth, predicted Taiwan’s fate almost 50 years ago. In a Sept. 19, 1958, letter, he wrote, “Will Red China invade and capture [Taiwan]? In all probability, yes …. The Red Chinese will ‘save face,’ and the United States, with many American troops now on Taiwan, will again lose face!”

Ma’s commitment to increase ties with China will only serve to quicken Taiwan’s loss of freedom, and America’s loss of face.

As Mr. Flurry wrote in 1998, “These 21 million [Taiwanese] people are going to be forced into the Chinese mold; and it is going to happen for one reason: because of a pitifully weak-willed America.”