Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter. But something ominous is occurring in the land of the bear. Russia’s oil production has fallen for three months in a row, and Russia is now pumping less than it was last year. I repeat: Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter. If its production is stalling, this could be the beginning of a way-of-life changer for America.

Confirming Russian Energy Ministry oil data, integrated financial services bank Credit Suisse estimates that Russian oil production will fall by half a percent this year. Investment bank usb is less optimistic: It is calling for a 1 percent drop.

One percent might not sound like much, but when global markets are as tight as they are, and when you produce 9.77 million barrels per day, the drawdown is significant.

And if there is a supply crunch on the horizon, America is in serious trouble. According to some estimates, 85 percent of global oil supplies are found in countries not especially friendly to the United States.

Let’s look at America’s oil needs. The U.S. currently consumes 21 million barrels of oil per day. How much is 21 million barrels? A 42-gallon oil barrel is about 4 feet high. If you laid 21 million of them end to end, they would stretch almost 16,000 miles—that’s a trip from Los Angeles to Moscow and back, and halfway back again. America consumes that every day!

Of those 21 million barrels, America produces only 5 million domestically. The rest has to be imported. So America is tremendously dependent on imported oil.

And unfortunately, the domestic drill bit isn’t going to be able to fix things. As oil prices have soared over $100 per barrel, oil companies in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year. But despite massive investment, less oil continues to flow out of the ground. There are hundreds of thousands of old wells in the U.S.—each producing a little less oil each day—and new production isn’t getting close to covering the dropoff.

“[D]omestic volumes of oil output are depleting and declining inexorably,” says oil analyst Byron King. “From the North Slope of Alaska to the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. output is just plain falling.”

Despite popular opinion, opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (anwr) and other off-limit areas to drilling isn’t a magic bullet either. These areas may temporarily provide a source of oil, but will ultimately be just a drop in the bucket of what is needed. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates with 95 percent probability that anwr holds 5.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. At current consumption levels, 5.7 billion barrels would last for 271 days. Even assuming 10 billion barrels in anwr, and the fact that we could extract every last drop, it wouldn’t even cover our needs for a year and a half.

The big problem for America and the rest of the world is that additional oil is getting much harder to come by. Oil production isn’t only falling in America, it is flat or falling just about everywhere. Norway’s production is falling. Britain’s North Sea is in rapid decline, and according to one source, Mexico’s giant Cantarell field is “simply crashing.”

In fact, 54 of the top 65 oil-producing countries have declining production rates. Make that 55 counting Russia.

If you aren’t convinced that the world is, or soon will be, facing an oil crisis, you are not alone. Millions of Americans, Canadians and Britons go about their daily lives, oblivious to the fact that their lives are about to radically change. Many think they have seen it all before during the oil rationing and embargo in the 1970s. Many think that soon oil prices will fall, and $2 a gallon gasoline will be back.

Today’s looming oil crisis is very different than that of the 1970s. Back then it was because certain opec members purposefully stopped selling oil, and then Iran and Iraq went to war that prices were driven sky-high. This time it is growing demand from 2 billion Asians and stagnating global oil production. There may be short-term pullbacks, but unless the world quickly finds an alternative fuel the long-term price trend will most likely be up.

There are those who see it coming.

Just last month, Edward Lazear, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, said America should “have been thinking about all of this 10 to 15 years ago when it comes to alternatives or new exploration, and we weren’t.” He implies that today’s efforts are too little, too late.

According to Lazear, White House research indicates that global oil demand isn’t going to fade, even if there is an economic slowdown in America. Oil demand is “here to stay.”

Lazear isn’t a lone voice in Washington either. There is a growing realization that America is facing a crisis.

Also in March, U.S. Department of Energy Assistant Energy Secretary Alexander Karsner said that “[t]he places where oil can be found and extracted and brought to bear in the world are decreasing. It will get harder, and demand will outstrip supply for probably the rest of my lifetime” (emphasis mine).

Actions speak louder than words.

America has already constructed the world’s largest strategic petroleum reserve. It currently holds a record 701 million barrels of oil with capacity of 726 million barrels. Yet despite it being at 96.5 percent capacity, the record high oil prices, and calls from all three presidential incumbents to stop filling it to combat high oil prices, the current administration continues to buy oil on the open market. Additionally, the president has approved plans to double the capacity of the petroleum reserve to 1.5 billion barrels. Clearly, someone realizes that oil shortages are on the horizon.

Don’t forget the national push for biofuels that has swept America. In the effort to wean drivers from imported oil, the government has embarked upon a program that turns our food supply (corn) into fuel (ethanol).

The Department of Defense clearly knows oil shortages and higher fuel prices are on the way. Only 38 countries use more fuel than America’s military uses (2006 data), so fuel costs are a huge proportion of the DoD’s budget. When you use more oil than Ukraine, Sweden or the Philippines, it is important to have an idea which way oil prices are going.

Military planners are now using $225-per-barrel oil in their planning projections. Congress has directed the Navy to use nuclear power for all future large surface combatant ships. Nuclear power only makes sense if oil is projected to remain over $70 per barrel. The Air Force has also embarked on a drastic program to try and find alternative fuel sources to fly its jets, such as liquid coal and natural gas. The Army is examining the fuel efficiency of ground combat vehicles; it seeks ways to more efficiently move troops to and around the battlefield.

Globally, the competition for resources will continue to heat up. China, India, Japan and the European Union are each, like the U.S., massive oil importers. And each needs to import more oil every year. In March, China came within inches of surpassing Japan as the world’s second-largest oil importer for the month. If Russia’s oil exports really are in for a prolonged decline (even a gentle one), with demand rising, supplies are about to tighten dramatically.

Most of Russia’s oil currently goes to Europe. If that supply starts to diminish, Europe will need to seek additional oil elsewhere. Where will Europe get the oil it needs? To find out how Europe will get that oil, read “The Battleground.”

“The battle for global resources has already begun,” says commodity analyst Kevin Kerr. “[T]he borders are being drawn and the players are suiting up. The grim reality is that commodities are being gobbled up around the globe, and as Earth’s population surges past 6 billion, resources are being stretched to the limit.”

Resource scarcity will have major implications for our way of life and society.

More than any country in the world, America relies on oil. At first we will see a general trend of rising prices. The cost of everything from gasoline and fertilizer to plastic bags will continue to rise, as will anything that is trucked to market. Cities will be gutted, and suburbs abandoned as people are no longer able to afford the commute. Gardens will be back in vogue.

Change is on the way. America’s days as a superpower are ending. Its over-reliance on imported oil is just one of the reasons. For information on the primary reason America is losing its superpower status, request a free copy of The United States and Britain in Prophecy.