Why Ireland Cannot Stop European Unification
The European Union is in another crisis. On Thursday, June 12, Irish voters went to the polls and rejected the Lisbon Treaty by a margin of 15 percent or more. Since the Lisbon Treaty has to be ratified by all 27 member nations of the EU, Ireland’s rejection threatens to derail the project. As the Washington Post reports, “The victory for the ‘No’ camp means a country with fewer than 1 percent of the EU’s 490 million population could wreck a treaty painstakingly negotiated over years by leaders of all 27 member states.”
What is most disappointing to pro-integration European leaders is that this is the second time that their attempts at creating a European Union constitution have been delayed. After France and the Netherlands rejected the 2005 version of the European Constitution in national referendums, EU leaders determined to revise the treaty and run it again. After removing some of the more nationalistic language from the old constitution draft—in particular the parts about an EU flag and an EU national anthem—these leaders renamed the constitution the Lisbon Treaty and again submitted it to the member states for ratification. This time it was ratified by 16 nations before the Irish rejected it. Interestingly, Ireland was the only nation to submit the treaty to referendum.
While many analysts say this Irish rejection may be the beginning of the end for the concept of a united Europe, this rejection is much more likely the end of the beginning.
Germanyand France did not let the failure of the 2005 European Constitution deter them and they are not about to let an Irish referendum sideline their plans for a united Europe. Even before the Irish referendum, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were contemplating what they could do if the Irish said no. The two leaders agreed to issue a joint statement outlining their plan of action if Ireland were to plunge the EU into a political crisis.
“The eventuality of an Irish rejection would be a problem not only for the French presidency but for Europe,” Sarkozy said. “It’s for the Irish to decide on this, but what Madame Merkel and I have decided is that, whatever happens, the reaction will be a Franco-German one.”
Now that Ireland has actually rejected the treaty, Germany and France are expected to re-pledge their commitment to ensuring that the treaty ratification process continues in the other 10 nations that have yet to ratify the treaty. Whatever Germany and France decide to do, however, it is certain that they will not just throw up their hands and forget the whole thing. On the contrary, this current crisis may just be the catalyst that spurs Europe on to greater unity—in an undemocratic sort of way.
After the 2005 constitution was rejected in two national referendums, the governments of every EU member state except Ireland made it a point to ensure their ratification processed did not include a referendum. The general idea was that if the people do not support further EU unification, sideline them. Now that the one nation that did hold a referendum has rejected the new version of the constitution, it is likely that European leaders will have to get even more undemocratic if they are to find a way to unify Europe.
The fact is that the EU has already become too big and unwieldy to manage under its current government system. It needs to be streamlined and it needs one nation to step up as the primary decision maker. This political crisis may be just what it takes to get the process of true European unification started.
For more information on how the future government of a united Europe will be structured, read “Is a World Dictator About to Appear?” by Ron Fraser.