WorldWatch
Europe
Several high-level politicians are calling for the European Union to have more power. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that increasing Europe’s global influence would be France’s top priority when it takes over the rotating presidency of the eu on July 1. Kouchner also stated that he wants the EU to have a more effective foreign policy and better defense cooperation.
At the same time, European leaders want more EU involvement in world financial markets. According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Anglo-Saxon model of regulation has failed, and a European model should take its place. This is a critical trend to watch: The Bible prophesies that Europe will indeed become the financial capital of the world.
Also, in May, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the EU needs an army. He advocated the EU accelerating efforts to integrate its armed forces, with a European army as the final goal. Peter Struck, former defense minister and now head of the German Social Democratic Party, agreed: “There will still be opposition to the idea …” he said. “But single states are no longer able to handle the threats of today.” Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, made a similar appeal in June. Watch for these statements to become reality.
Meanwhile, Europe is becoming less open and democratic, according to its own transparency watchdog. New proposals on document access are a “step backwards,” European ombudsman Nikiforos Diamandouros said at a hearing in the European Parliament on June 2. In truth, the EU’s secretive and corrupt nature goes back for decades.
One way Europe is attempting to quash democracy is through a proposed amendment, soon to be presented before Parliament, that would eliminate several small political groupings, including Europe’s main Euroskeptic group. Independence and Democracy, which has only 23 members, would lose its speaking rights, committee positions and significant funding—privileges afforded official political grouping only. Time after time it becomes apparent that democracy and debate get in the way of the European Union. In order to function more efficiently, Europe must become less democratic. Watch for this trend to be reflected in future headlines.
As Europe prepares to increase its power, it is also turning east. French President Nicolas Sarkozy believes Ukraine belongs to Europe. “When we are in Kiev, we are in a European city,” he said May 28. He plans to use France’s presidency of the EU to pursue closer ties with Kiev.
May also featured high-profile meetings between Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the new Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. In December, Steinmeier was the first foreign minister to meet with Medvedev after the latter’s nomination for president. On a May 14 visit to the Kremlin, he became the first foreign official to meet with President Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin since they officially took their new offices. Steinmeier met Medvedev again on June 5 when Medvedev visited Berlin on his first Western trip since becoming president. Steinmeier is one of the Russian leaders’ best friends in Europe.
Europe has finally agreed on a common position over a potential EU-Russia trade and partnership agreement. After 18 months of deadlock, EU nations agreed on May 21 to begin wide-ranging negotiations with Russia. An agreement between these two would allow them to temporarily lay aside their differences in order to more vigorously pursue other national interests. At least six times in the last 240 years, Germany has first made a pact with Russia to secure its eastern border before embarking on aggressive foreign policy elsewhere. These negotiations may well result in such a pact.
MidEast
A U.S. airstrike on June 10 in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal area killed 11 Pakistani troops, further straining already deteriorating relations between Washington and Islamabad. Pakistan’s military strongly condemned the operation. When the new Pakistani coalition government took office in late March, the Trumpet wrote that the U.S.-Pakistan alliance was in serious jeopardy. Due to Pakistan’s lack of cooperation in denying the Taliban sanctuary inside its borders, the U.S. is now starting to take things into its own hands—and Pakistan isn’t happy. U.S. military action in Pakistan is highly unpopular among Pakistanis and could lead to social unrest. Such sentiment could also cause problems within the Pakistani military, which has already been weakened by recent political changes in the country.
Additionally, Pakistan’s infamous A.Q. Khan has come out saying that his admission of supplying Iran, North Korea and Libya with nuclear technology was made under duress, implicating Pakistan’s military (and rightfully so) in nuclear proliferation. This puts additional pressure on the army—the only real force ensuring Pakistan’s unity and continuance as a nation state—and could lead to a challenge of its power.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government is losing control over the country’s border regions as it continues to cut deals with terrorists. The government has pulled troops from the tribal areas, conducted prisoner exchanges with the Taliban, and is allowing sharia law in one district. This appeasement-oriented approach is emboldening the Islamist terrorists, who are now carrying out attacks with little fear of reprisal. On June 2, a suicide attack on the Danish Embassy in Islamabad killed six people and caused widespread destruction. “What is crucial,” wrote Stratfor, “is whether the military will reassert control over the state, or whether the old system will be replaced with a new one (or with anarchy)” (June 3). Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry pointed to the dangers of Islamists gaining influence in a nuclear-armed Pakistan in his January article “Pakistan and the Shah of Iran.”
On June 8, Iraq’s prime minister sought to ease Iranian fears over a proposed security deal with the U.S. by promising that Iraq would not become a launching pad for an attack on its neighbor. Iraq will not sign up to any deal with the U.S. without Washington first coming to an understanding with Iran. Iran has already stirred up much resistance in Iraq to the proposed security pact, which is to replace the current mandate that expires in December. Moreover, a Stratfor source revealed that Iran has established a new militant unit in Iraq, al Tariqa al Safraa, to carry out clandestine operations such as kidnappings, assassinations and spying. Tehran could use this group to provoke an uprising should it seek to increase pressure on Washington. Iran is determined to get its way in Iraq through the many means at its disposal.
Israel is reaching out to its enemies on all sides—without success. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert confirmed in May that Israel has been conducting secret talks with Syria, via Turkey, for over a year. Even as this news broke, however, the Syrian defense minister visited Tehran to consolidate defense ties between Syria and Israel’s greatest enemy, Iran. On June 10, Olmert called for peace talks with Lebanon. His request was rejected the next day. On June 18, Israel agreed to an Egyptian-mediated truce with Hamas—a cease-fire we don’t expect to last for long.
Meanwhile, Olmert’s days as prime minister appear to be numbered, with him being investigated on charges involving bribery and business scandals. Watch for a possible resurgence of the conservative Likud party as Olmert’s party is further weakened.
Thirteen people were killed in Algeria on June 8 when two bombs exploded at a train station in a town about 50 miles from the capital, Algiers. This was one in a string of terrorist attacks in Algeria, including a roadside bombing that killed six Algerian soldiers on June 6. The growing Islamist threat in North Africa is destined to become a serious threat for Europe (see article, page 17).
Asia
Asia was hit by two devastating natural disasters in May: A cyclone with 130-mile-an-hour winds hit Myanmar on May 2, and a 7.9-magnitude earthquake hit the Sichuan province of China on May 12. The death toll from Cyclone Nargis could be as high as 130,000, while the Chinese government estimates that over 69,000 died in the quake. As millions mourned, the governments of both nations strengthened their ties with their Asian neighbors by cooperating with them in relief and aid efforts.
Almost two weeks after the cyclone hit, Singapore’s foreign minister told the world that Myanmar’s isolated ruling junta was averse to non-Asian governments sending relief personnel into their country but might accept personnel from other Southeast Asian nations. Although Myanmar officials eventually let non-Asian foreign aid workers in, their reluctance revealed their distrust of non-Asian nations is greater than their concern for the people.
China accepted massive foreign aid packages from Japan, Russia and the Philippines and even allowed Japanese medical workers and rescue teams onto Chinese soil in an attempt to save lives and repair the devastation. After centuries of rivalry, Japan and China are now looking to each other as friends. Natural disasters like the Sichuan quake have served to tighten this relationship. While it is definitely admirable when human beings band together to save lives, it is also worrying to see this move in light of what an alliance with China portends for Japan’s future relations with the U.S.
Another Asian nation drawing closer to Communist China is Taiwan. On June 12, Taiwanese representatives met with Chinese officials in Beijing to hold the highest-level talks between the two nations since 1999. The two sides agreed to re-launch regular direct weekend passenger flights starting on July 4 and to allow mainland tourists into Taiwan two weeks later. Taiwan is trying to draw closer to its mainland rival in an attempt to avoid a Chinese invasion. This fear illuminates America’s deteriorating relationship with Taiwan in favor of China. The American government even refused to allow newly elected Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou to visit the U.S. before his inauguration on May 21. Without America to protect it, Taiwan is trying to patch things up with its mainland neighbor.
While China was talking peace with Taiwan during the June 12 meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was urging the United States to permanently end arms sales to Taiwan. China may be more than willing to accept Taiwan’s voluntary steps closer to the mainland, but at the end of the day its intentions are anything but peaceful. The Taiwanese are going to be forced back into the mainland mold.
Yasuo Fukuda faced a major humiliation on June 11 when he became the first Japanese prime minister under Japan’s post-World War ii constitution to have a censure passed against him. This is a symbolic representation of the parliamentary majority’s dissatisfaction with the Fukuda administration. Though Fukuda says he has no plans to step down, the censure nevertheless could portend a less-U.S.-friendly leader succeeding Fukuda, such as opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa. Should Ozawa or some other nationalistic leader like him ascend to the Japanese premiership, Japan would likely ditch its relationship with America and focus more exclusively on Asian integration.
Latin America, Africa
Hugo Chávez, president of Venezuela, is expected to visit Russia soon to finalize plans to purchase $2 billion worth of military contracts. Caracas also negotiated a contract to provide 10,000 barrels per day of oil to Portugal—one more alternative to the U.S. in President Chávez’s growing customer list.
On June 3, Brazil announced that it seeks sanctions against the U.S. for violations concerning cotton subsidies to U.S. farmers. If the U.S. does stop subsidies to farmers, the global price of cotton would rise significantly—and the U.S. would see another of its production sectors disappear.
In May, Zimbabwe’s economy topped 1 million percent inflation. Associated Press observed that “a small pack of locally produced coffee beans cost just short of 1 billion Zimbabwe dollars. A decade ago, that sum would have bought 60 new cars.” Harare also set a record with its latest economic solution: the half-billion-dollar bill, issued just 10 days after its record-setting quarter-billion-dollar bill. Its value at time of release? Two U.S. dollars.
Meanwhile, the military is running President Robert Mugabe’s reelection campaign. It is using every nefarious trick in the book—from suspending foreign food aid to harassing opposition supporters—in order to swing the vote in Mugabe’s favor. Mugabe’s opponent, opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai, was arrested three times in just the first two weeks of June alone. On June 6, seven men in white pickup trucks grabbed the wife of Patson Chipiro, the head of the opposition party in Mhondoro, then “chopped off one of her hands and both her feet. Then they threw her into her hut, locked the door and threw a petrol bomb through the window” (Times, June 12). Indeed, Mugabe has called his conflict with the Movement for Democratic Change “an all-out war.”
Xenophobic black-on-black attacks in South Africa killed 62 people in May. About 40 percent of the population is unemployed; more than 4 million earn less than a dollar a day. South Africans blame foreigners—many of whom are refugees from Zimbabwe—for stealing their jobs and increasing the crime rates. Some Zimbabweans are now fleeing back across the border.
After clashes in the oil-producing Abyei region of Sudan in May that displaced tens of thousands, the Sudanese peace deal established in January 2005 appears to be collapsing. David Mozersky, formerly senior Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned “If that deal falls apart, Sudan likely falls apart.” More than 2 million people died in the two decades of civil war in Sudan.
Meanwhile, the global race for African resources continues. A French company, Areva, will probably win the contract to build a nuclear energy facility in Algeria. France may also win a contract to explore Algerian uranium mines, giving the eu another inroad to Africa. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has promised to increase trade with Africa, doubled developmental assistance to Africa to $1.8 billion per year, and offered $4 billion in loans to Africa at concessionary terms. On June 3, China National Petroleum Company announced it would invest $5 billion to develop oil fields in Niger—an expensive project only made worthwhile by skyrocketing oil prices.
Anglo-america
Ex-inmates of the U.S. prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, are turning up as suicide bombers and attackers in Iraq. American commanders and in some cases the attackers’ families have confirmed that dozens of former detainees are returning to strike at U.S. forces. Over half of the 770 enemy combatants detained at the camp have been freed or remanded to other countries.
Farmers across the American Midwest have been staring out their windows at heavy rains drowning U.S. crops. Farms in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Missouri received as much as a foot of rain in the first 11 days of June, more than four times the average. The resulting floods and crop damage have slashed estimates for this year’s crops.
Global food shortages are already widespread, and prices for food and energy commodities are surging. The Wall Street Journal reports that these surges are not a bubble, but the result of fundamental market conditions, including demand from China and India and constricted supply.
In addition to the price of gas, prices for oil-based goods—an estimated 57 major types of goods including asphalt, detergents, cleaners, paint, pharmaceuticals and plastics—are surging. Almost half of consumer products are directly affected by the rising cost of petroleum.
A New York City Health Department study found that over one in four nyc adults have the genital herpes virus, a lifelong sexually transmitted infection. The New York lifestyle also has an above-average number of New Yorkers carrying gonorrhea, chlamydia and infectious syphilis.
A May government study found that over 2 million American teens suffered at least one serious episode of depression in the past year, defined as a bout lasting two weeks or more involving a depressed mood, loss of interest or pleasure, and at least four other serious symptoms. On average, 12 youth suicides occur every day, the third-leading cause of death for young Americans ages 15 to 24.
After two years of below-average rainfall and wildfires last October, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a statewide drought in June, saying this spring was the driest in recorded history for the state’s northern watershed.
British sentiment is at a poisonous peak against the nation it helped found: Israel. Israel’s ambassador to Britain, Ron Prosor, said the nation has become a hotbed of radical anti-Israeli sentiment. A trade union of teachers and professors has called for a boycott of Israeli academia. Much of the British media airs anti-Israeli programming and reporting against the nation’s historic ally and national brother. May 15, George Galloway delivered a public address in Jordan, aired on Al-Jazeera tv, in which he said Tony Blair was “dripping with the blood” of Palestinians and encouraged Palestinian terrorism against Israelis. Galloway is not a London-based cleric. He is a member of the British Parliament.
In Australia, the marriage rate is its lowest since 400,000 young men left the country to fight World War i. Fifty-one percent of women are single or cohabiting. In England and Wales, the marriage rate is its lowest since 1895. Among marrieds, 59 percent of women admit they’d leave their husbands if they could afford it. Half of husbands defined their marriages as “loveless.” The UK as a whole has the highest divorce rates since records began. If current trends continue, one in ten marriages will fail before it is five years old; nearly half will end in divorce.
