Russia’s invasion of Georgia is barely a week old and already the world is far more dangerous. The Weekly Standard, hearkening back to Francis Fukuyama’s declaration of the fall of the Soviet Union being “the end of history,” calls Russia’s resurgence “the return of history.”

The U.S. and Poland responded to the invasion by fast-tracking agreement on a long-discussed deal whereby Poland will host an American missile defense base. In a stunning sign of just how confident Russia has become, on Friday it responded angrily, with a belligerent warning to Poland. Russian Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, in addition to saying how the deal would hurt U.S.-Russian relations, said that Poland “cannot go unpunished.” Russia even threatened the possibility of a nuclear attack on Poland.

Considering the fact that Russia has just demonstrated its willingness to actually act on such threats—coupled with the West’s demonstrated commitment to what it calls “soft power” (a battery of diplomatic and economic incentives and punishments that have repeatedly proven of no use against many nations—witness Iran)—it’s not difficult to imagine events getting even uglier very quickly.

The fact that Poland is placing its faith in America at this juncture is remarkable. Note the terms of the deal, as reported by the New York Times:

The missile defense deal was announced by Polish officials and confirmed by the White House. Under it, Poland would host an American base with 10 interceptors designed to shoot down a limited number of ballistic missiles, in theory launched by a future adversary such as Iran. A tracking radar system would be based in the Czech Republic. The system is expected to be in place by 2012.In exchange for providing the base, Poland would get what the two sides called “enhanced security cooperation,” notably a top-of-the-line Patriot air defense system that can shoot down shorter-range missiles or attacking fighters or bombers.

It additionally said the deal included this provision:

that at least temporarily American soldiers would staff air defense sites in Poland oriented toward Russia, and that the United States would be obliged to defend Poland in case of an attack with greater speed than required under NATO, of which Poland is a member.Polish officials said the agreement would strengthen the mutual commitment of the United States to defend Poland, and vice versa. “Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later—it is no good when assistance comes to dead people,” the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said on Polish television. “Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of—knock on wood—any possible conflict.”

This trust in a swift and decisive U.S. response to an attack on Poland is dangerously misplaced. Look at recent history. When America’s allies are attacked, America does little more than express disapproval. It is swift in calling such actions “unacceptable.” Look at the Gaza Strip, currently under Hamas rule. Look at Lebanon, dominated by Hezbollah—both Iranian proxies. Look at Taiwan, which has been all but swallowed up by China. Look, now, at Georgia. How many times does the U.S. have to prove itself an unstable ally before other nations will learn the lesson?

Russia Exposes Weakness of NATO, Europe, U.S.

Victor Davis Hanson describes what Russia’s invasion of Georgia says about nato:

The geopolitical message is clear to both the West and the former Soviet Republics: don’t consider NATO membership (i.e., do the Georgians really think that, should they have been NATO members, any succor would have been forthcoming?).Together with the dismal NATO performance in Afghanistan, the Georgian incursion reveals the weakness of the Atlantic Alliance. The tragic irony is unmistakable. NATO was given a gift in not having made Georgia a member, since otherwise an empty ritual of evoking Article V’s promise of mutual assistance in time of war would have effectively destroyed the Potemkin alliance.

Hanson continues with this piercing insight on the weakness of the West—given Europe’s energy needs and, particularly, the self-loathing of America’s political left:

Putin & Co. figure that any popular rhetoric about justice will be trumped by European governments’ concern for energy. With just a few tanks and bombs, in one fell swoop, Russia has cowered its former republics, made them think twice about joining the West, and stopped NATO and maybe E.U. expansion in their tracks. After all, who wants to die for Tbilisi?Russia does not need a global force-projection capacity; it has sufficient power to muscle its neighbors and thereby humiliate not merely its enemies, but their entire moral pretensions as well. …The Russians rightly expect Westerners to turn on themselves, rather than Moscow — and they won’t be disappointed. … From what the Russians learned of the Western reaction to Iraq, they expect their best apologists will be American politicians, pundits, professors, and essayists — and once more they will not be disappointed.

Hanson summed up his point in another piece on Friday:

The Russians understand the Thucydidean truth that ‘the strong do as they please, and the weak do as they must.’ Putin et. al., as in the case of the Russian leveling of Grozny, have sized up the world — the sanctimonious E.U., the blow-hard U.N., the self-important World Court — and in response have rephrased Stalin’s quip “How many divisions do they have?”

Merkel Enters the Fray

German Chancellor Angela Merkel touched down in the Georgian capital on Sunday. Ms. Merkel’s message was polite but strong. While she told the Georgians they need to respect the ceasefire, her message to the Russians was more poignant. The German leader not only demanded Russia withdraw its troops from Georgia’s core territory, she “stressed that Germany’s position was that Georgia’s territorial integrity was beyond question,” and that Tbilisi will become a nato member if it wants.

As the obvious leader of Europe and situated at the crossroads of the continent and heavily reliant on Russian energy, Germany’s reaction and role in the crisis that erupted in Georgia last week will be pivotal. For more on this, go here.

Ukraine on Russia’s Hit List?

Today’s New York Times has an important piece about how Ukrainians believe they are now at the top of Russia’s hit list:

Ukraine has done little to win Russia’s favor since the crisis in the Caucasus began. On Wednesday, Ukraine announced that it would restrict the movements of Russia’s Black Sea fleet into Sevastopol, on the Crimean peninsula. On Friday, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it was prepared to give Western countries access to its missile-warning systems.

On Saturday, Ukraine escalated East-West tensions by offering to create a joint missile defense network of its own with the West.

In response to these moves, “Russia is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the cold war, senior military sources warned last night,” today’sSunday Times reports.

Under the Russian plans, nuclear warheads could be supplied to submarines, cruisers and fighter bombers of the Baltic fleet based in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave between the European Union countries of Poland and Lithuania. A senior military source in Moscow said the fleet had suffered from underfunding since the collapse of communism. “That will change now,” said the source.

TheTrumpet.com’s prophetic analysis of these events has been right on target. As we wrote more than four months ago, “In Europe, control of the Balkans was imperative for the eastward expansion of the German-dominated European Union. For similar strategic reasons, just as Germany ruthlessly went after the Balkans, watch for Russia to ruthlessly go after the Caucasus to allow the consolidation of its imperialist goals.”

That is now happening. To read about how these events have rapidly accelerated Bible prophecy, go here. For more on how Russia is triggering Europe to unite, read this.

Exporting Drunken Debauchery

“The nations of Israel—mainly America, the British peoples and the Jewish nation—have a history with God,” our editor in chief wrote several years ago. We were called, he wrote, to set a righteous example for the rest of the world.

In these latter days, however, the “example” most often making headlines is that of drunkenness, sexual deviance and violence. A story posted on Friday examines the wild behavior of young Israelis on vacation in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus:

More than 10 young Israelis were detained at the Ayia Napa resort in Cyprus in recent days on charges of drunk driving and unruly behavior at clubs and hotels.Several other Israeli youngsters were held at the Larnaca International Airport after misbehaving and being rude to local police. Some of the Israelis were sent back to Israel.Israel’s embassy in Cyprus informed the Foreign Ministry that in recent days it has been receiving almost daily reports about Israeli groups being detained. In all cases, the youths in question traveled to Cyprus ahead of their military service. According to the reports, the unruly behavior starts at the airport upon arrival, with young Israelis swearing at local police who reprimand them for misbehaving.Some of the youths are believed to be drunk on arrival to Cyprus after consuming alcohol during the one-hour flight from Israel.

Another story in today’s Sunday Times sheds light on the behavior of British vacationers when they travel abroad:

About 4 a.m. last Thursday, a mob of 200 alcohol-sodden youths gathered outside the Sabotage nightclub on the Greek island of Zakynthos ready for action. Two men were squaring up for a fight. …Suddenly the black man jumped onto a quad-bike and drove into the crowd, apparently trying to run over his adversary. Bodies went sprawling. Within minutes sirens were blaring and four Greek police officers were wrestling the 19-year-old rider to the ground before carting him off in handcuffs. An ambulance took a teenage girl to hospital. …Similar scenes of debauchery are played out across the Ionian Sea at the resort of Malia on Crete, where street brawls have involved hundreds of holidaymakers, and scores of women are reported to request the morning-after pill each day.

According to the Times, a report published by the UK Foreign Office last week shows that 4,603 Britons were arrested at 15 popular holiday destinations in the last year, an increase of almost 16 percent. Drunkenness, violence and debauchery, though, have become the calling card of British tourists. The Times even labels the two holiday destinations it investigated as modern-day versions of Sodom and Gomorrah.

The Old Testament Prophet Isaiah also compares our peoples to those of Sodom and Gomorrah, describing us as being “sick” from head to toe. He prophesied of our eventual ruin and desolation as a result of our universal sin and rebellion against God’s laws.

Jesus Christ also described our latter-day society as being exactly like Sodom and Gomorrah—abundantly prosperous, yet exceedingly wicked. Like Isaiah, Jesus prophesied, “But the same day that Lot went out of Sodom it rained fire and brimstone from heaven, and destroyed them all. Even thus shall it be in the day when the Son of man is revealed” (Luke 17:29-30).

For more about the lessons from ancient Sodom and Gomorrah, go here.

This Makes Prisoner Swap With Hezbollah Look Like an Israeli Triumph

Earlier today, Israel’s cabinet approved the release of 200 Palestinian security prisoners as a gesture of goodwill toward Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. In return for the prisoners, Israel gains nothing and instead loses more of its already weakened deterrence in the war against terror.

Two of the prisoners to be set free are classified as having “blood on their hands,” meaning the prisoners were involved in terrorist attacks that resulted in Israeli casualties. Releasing these kinds of prisoners was taboo until the recent prisoner exchange with Hezbollah.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni justified her support for the motion saying, “When Israel releases prisoners only to groups that exert force, it sends out the message that it gives in to pressure and that the use of violence and kidnapping are [effective] ways of acting against Israel.”

If returning murderous thugs to Hezbollah and Hamas only sends the wrong message, how is that message clarified by returning murderers to Fatah as well—and for nothing in return?

Elsewhere on the Web

In Pakistan, pressure is mounting on President Pervez Musharraf to either resign or face impeachment proceedings. For theTrumpet.com’s take on this development, go here.

And Finally …

A witty observation in George Will’s column today: “Americans suffer political astigmatism. They squint at Washington, seeing an incompetent cornucopia that is too big but that should expand to give them more blessings.”