On January 20, the Middle East will change as a new U.S. president is inaugurated. But by January 9 it may have already exploded. For by that date, an even more volatile presidential election is set to be concluded.

The Palestinians must elect the new president of the Palestinian Authority (PA) soon. But the two main political parties/terrorists groups cannot agree when the election should be conducted. Fatah, the party of the current president, Mahmoud Abbas, argues that the elections shouldn’t be held until 2010. But Hamas, which won the Palestinian Legislative Council elections in 2006, insist that elections must be held in January. If they are not, Hamas could get nasty.

Why Vote Hamas

Hamas runs the Gaza Strip. It also enjoys a lot of support in the West Bank. But Hamas is a violent and repressive terrorist group. So why do people vote for it? Understanding this question is key to understanding Hamas’s goals in the West Bank.

Fatah is corrupt, as one East Jerusalem resident recently explained to the Trumpet. If you have a sick child in desperate need of medical attention, you can forget about going to the PA. You’ll only get money from it if you’re a friend or relative of someone high up in Fatah. Hamas, however, will give you the money, usually with no strings attached.

In 2005, in the municipal elections in Bethlehem, Hamas won five out of seven council seats allotted to Muslims. Why was the organization so popular? “You’d wake up in the morning,” explained a local Palestinian-Christian, “and find a box of [food] staples like oil and sugar here on the sidewalk.” An exit poll during the second round of elections on May 5, 2005, showed that 35 percent of voters said their most important problem was poverty and unemployment (Matthew Levitt, Hamas: Politics, Charity and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad). No wonder Hamas won.

Hamas is not the only Islamic group to grow support this way. Sheikh Raed Salah, head of the Israel-based Islamic Movement of the North, provides free iftar, the meal that breaks the fast every evening during Ramadan, to thousands of hungry Palestinians in East Jerusalem. Salah is a radical preacher, who last year called for a “third intifada,” or uprising, and frequently proclaims that the al-Aqsa Mosque is in danger. The Israeli security forces also suspect his movement of aiding Hamas.

These kind of tactics worked well for Hamas in Gaza—and now they seem to working in the rest of the disputed territories. “The people of East Jerusalem have been swept into this wave of Islamicism and are enjoying the attention given to them by such activities,” says Rasem Abaidat, an East Jerusalem writer and activist.

Domination With Dawa

This incitement through charity is known as dawa. The Oxford Dictionary of Islam defines dawa as “Call. God’s way of bringing believers to faith …. Militant submovements interpret dawa as calling Muslims back to the purer forms of religion ….” For Hamas, dawa is central to their campaign of terror.

“According to the statements of its own leadership, Hamas’ dawa activities have always been its most important tool for furthering the organization’s goal of destroying Israel, undermining the Palestinian Authority and recruiting grassroots and operation support,” wrote Matthew Levitt in his book Hamas: Politics, Charity, and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad.

The Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service strongly linked dawa to violent extremism in its December 2004 report “From Dawa to Jihad: The Various Threats From Radical Islam to the Democratic Legal Order.” It also noted that the use of dawa by non-violent groups can still have a radical motive: “The choice of some dawa-oriented groups for non-violent activities does not always imply that they are non-violent on principle. Often they simply do not yet consider armed jihad expedient for practical reasons … or for religious reasons ….”

Some commentators predict that Fatah will continue to rule in the West Bank, and Hamas in Gaza. But dawa is Hamas’s method of invasion. Hamas is heavily invested in the West Bank. Last year, Abbas closed down 92 Hamas charities in the West Bank. In 2007, Hamas invested $36 million in dawa activities, according to Israeli security officials. It has plenty of funds to try to buy votes—ordering the charities to close isn’t going to stop it. In 2005 in Bethlehem, Hamas gave out food baskets for the purpose of winning the elections. If they are operating dawa in the West Bank, then they plan to take over.

With their non-violent use of dawa, Hamas may have won enough support to give Fatah—and Israel—some serious trouble in any upcoming elections. Of course, many—probably most—in the West Bank oppose Hamas. But since when did terrorist groups respect democracy?

The Outcome

The elections for the president of the Palestinian Authority present unique challenges. Under the basic law, the president’s term must last four years only. However, Fatah claims that the basic law also stipulates that the presidential elections and Legislative Council elections must be held at the same time. Currently, this is not the case because presidential elections were held immediately after Yasser Arafat’s death. Hamas insists that elections must be held by January. Fatah wants to wait until Legislative Council elections are held in 2010.

No one knows for sure what will happen. Sources close to Hamas believe it will attempt a takeover in the West Bank similar to its takeover of Gaza, though official sources within both Hamas and the PA deny this, according to the Saudi-owned Arabic-language daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat.

In other circles, opposite rumors circulate: that the PA is planning an operation to take out Hamas in the West Bank and maybe even Gaza.

The most likely outcome, however, is come kind of compromise. After all, Hamas and Fatah have the same goal, and the same patron. Hamas may have deposed Fatah in a quick coup in Gaza, but there will not be all-out war between the two.

As one PA leader explained, Hamas says “all of Palestine is ours, and we want to liberate it from the river to the sea in one blow. But Fatah, which leads the plo, feels that the Phased Plan must be pursued” (Benjamin Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism). In other words, Hamas wants to conquer Israel in one great push, and Fatah wants to slowly persuade Israel to give up land for peace, until Israel is small and defenseless enough to be conquered.

It is common knowledge that Iran funds Hamas. But last year, former Israel Defense Forces chief Moshe Yaalon revealed that Iran funds Fatah as well. According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Shalom Harari, of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, in March 2007 at least 40 percent of Fatah’s fighting groups were paid by Hezbollah and Iran.

Jerusalem

Whatever the outcome, Israel is the loser. If Hamas mounts a violent coup in the West Bank, Israel will have an outpost of Iran on its east and west. The result of a Fatah-Hamas compromise won’t be very different. This will also allow Hamas to expand its power outside of Gaza. It may also give it access to all the weapons Israel and the West have given to the PA.

Hamas may bide its time. In this case, it would control Gaza, and Fatah the West Bank. Ultimately, however, both groups hate Israel. And Hamas will continue its dawa operations in the West Bank, radicalizing the population, until the organization or its sponsors decide the time is right.

This will leave Jerusalem enclosed on three sides. And, thanks to dawa, a third column will be ready to rise up from within. Residents of East Jerusalem have carried out four major terrorist attacks so far this year. Anti-Semitic propaganda pervades the city via the TV, the Internet and mosques. Israeli security agency Shin Bet blames Hamas for the increased East Jerusalem terror.

Come January, Israel may face a dangerous new reality, with radicals occupying both the West Bank and Gaza—radicals that are funded by Iran. And Iran’s goal? Control of Jerusalem.