The inevitable happened last Friday in Nice, the picturesque city nestled on the French Riviera. “The extent of the harmony … was rare,” reported Spiegel Online over the weekend, “EU leaders and Russian President Medvedev agreed to new talks … about political and economic partnership between Moscow and Europe. There was even talk of a ‘pan-European security pact.’”

Interesting.

When Russia invaded Georgia on August 8, the European Union suspended relations with Moscow and immediately appeared to be giving the Kremlin the cold shoulder. One would have, given appearances, expected that in Nice, after three apparently tense months of separation, the EU would have chosen to ease, gently and cautiously, back into its relationship with Russia.

Not so.

As Spiegel Online observed (emphasis mine throughout):

Suddenly the barriers that had been piling up in recent months between the East and West seemed to be a lot lower. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, and his colleague from Moscow, Dmitry Medvedev, cleared the political hurdles at the EU-Russia summit in Nice on Friday with surprising ease—setting a new tone in difficult relations between unequal neighbors.

The EU showered Russia with promises, including an agreement to resume talks on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, the possibility of a new European-Russian security pact and even the promise that the EU would draw up a “road map” to help Russia join the World Trade Organization.

EU-Russian relations didn’t just seem to thaw; they appeared to get warm—fast!

Europe’s apparent about-face seems surprising to some. Why would the European Union be so willing to ignore Russian pugnacity and seemingly jump in bed with the Kremlin?

To those uninitiated in Russo-German politics, one possible explanation could be that Europe realizes that making good relations with its powerful eastern neighbor is the politically and economically expedient thing to do. This thaw, say the experts, was inevitable because the EU simply cannot afford to upset an important trade partner and critical supplier of European energy. In one sense, they’re absolutely right.

However, to astute observers of Russo-German politics, there’s another telling, more worrying, explanation for Europe’s apparent 180-degree turn. It’s the elephant in the room that no one is talking about. The explanation?

Germany.

The Trumpet has closely monitored Germany’s relationship with Russia since it invaded Georgia. We have explained that Russia’s invasion of Georgia was significant because rather than drive a wedge between Russia and Germany—as it did between the EU and Russia—that event appeared to strengthen the Russo-German relationship.

Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry first warned of the growing relationship between Germany and Russia in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Georgia at a forum at Herbert W. Armstrong College on August 18. “I believe it is very likely Germany and Russia have already cut a deal,” he stated. He also said, and later wrote for the October issue of the Trumpet: “I believe Germany may well have been complicit in Russia’s plan to attack Georgia!”

Events of the past three months back up that statement. Even still, many fail to realize that Germany has been working with Russia—and largely against the efforts of America, the EU and many European states—even well before August 8, the day Russia invaded Georgia!

In fact, how to react to the Kremlin has been a point of considerable diplomatic force for months between Germany and much of the rest of the EU. Instead of condemning, reprimanding and shunning Moscow, as America, the EU and most European states did publicly to one degree or another, the Germans responded initially with relative silence, and then with warm gestures that condoned, even legitimized, Russia’s violent invasion of Georgia and its subsequent combativeness.

Notice what think tank Stratfor wrote two days after Mr. Flurry made his statements:

Berlin is now reassessing its allegiances to Washington and nato, which would keep the country locked into the policies it made as an occupied state. Or Germany could act like its own state and create its own security guarantee with Russia—something that would rip nato apart. … Stratfor sources in Moscow have said that Medvedev has offered Merkel a security pact for their two countries.

Think on this.

The European press became very vocal last week when the EU stopped giving Russia the cold shoulder and indicated that it was willing to resume partnership and cooperation talks and possibly even continue negotiations for a security pact with the Kremlin.

Where have they been for the past three months? Germany is Europe’s trendsetter. It has been on friendly terms with the Russians for years and has been considering creating its own security pact with Russia since the days of the Kohl administration, not long after East and West Germany reunited. Thus, under German influence, it isn’t the slightest bit surprising to see the EU and most European states reaching out to embrace Russia. Not only is this politically and economically expedient, it’s what Germany has been working toward for the past decade and a half!

The EU last week was simply catching up with this reality!

The reality is that Germany, which is situated at the heart of Europe, having the largest population and economy of any European nation, is the Continent’s (and the EU’s) most influential nation, geopolitically, economically and, in reality, militarily. The reality is, unless the foreign-policy objectives of European states, and even the EU, have Berlin’s support, they carry little weight and get little traction. Neither Brussels nor any European state stands a chance of ever effectively penalizing the Kremlin—or anyone else for that matter—for “inhumane” action if those efforts are undermined and hijacked by Germany.

The last three months have proven that while the EU and European nations can publicly scream at Moscow all they want, it’s the back-channel contacts with Russia emanating from Berlin that the Kremlin really listens to.

Why does Russia respect Germany? Because the history of World War iiresonates in the minds of those who inhabit the Kremlin. The Russians understand what few other people or nations do today: Germany is the European nation to be feared most!

This reality brings terrific clarity to any analysis of Russian foreign policy. Why has the Kremlin consistently refused to back off efforts to augment its influence on its western periphery, challenge American interests in Eastern Europe, undermine nato and, in general, practice a more confrontational, even imperialistic, foreign policy?

Simple. Because it knows that it must demonstrate at least a show of strength to test the mettle of its most feared western neighbor! How far west can Russia push its sphere of influence? Russia seeks simply to test German reaction to this question. For now, it seems that Ukraine is the limit.

At this point in time, as the Trumpet has explained extensively in recent months, Germany wants to be on friendly terms with Russia. Broadly speaking, that means Europe (including the EU), as last week’s summit in France demonstrated, will likely continue to improve its ties with Russia. (While some European states are bound to disagree with Germany’s friendly approach toward Russia, they lack the means to translate their dissent into action.)

Watch the EU closely in the coming months. It’s now clear that Brussels, riding on Berlin’s coattails, is seriously considering forming a security pact with Russia. Both history and Bible prophecy inform us that this will ultimately have major consequences on world peace.

There’s another major, even more important trend that we should watch in Europe, which last week’s EU-Russia summit exposed. The EU’s apparent about-face toward Russia exposed just how central Germany is in establishing European foreign policy. The way the media is reporting last week’s summit, it sounds like the EU is charting a new course for Europe-Russia relations. It’s not. Last week the EU merely got on board with German designs for European foreign policy.

To read more about those designs, and learn about the prophetic significance of Germany’s emergence as the dominant power in Europe, read Germany and the Holy Roman Empire.

The summit in Nice last week was certainly significant. It saw the EU brought to heel by Germany—and exposed who the leader of Europe really is!