The sun is setting on the American century according to a U.S. intelligence report. The National Intelligence Council released the 121-page assessment of global conditions over the next two decades just in time for Barack Obama’s entry into the Oval Office on January 20. The report is released every four years, but its predictions about the U.S. were noticeably more pessimistic this time around. Among the global conflicts and nuclear threats forecasted in the report, it predicts that the United States will decline as a global power.

According to the Times, the report said “the United States’ relative strength—even in the military realm—will decline, and U.S. leverage will become more strained.” Also, “the U.S. dollar’s role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a ‘first among equals.’” The Times wrote, “The international system will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of non-state actors.”

Don’t Know Much About History

As their nation’s status in the world becomes questionable, Americans are woefully ignorant about their own history and government, repeated studies have shown. The latest of these, a new Intercollegiate Studies Institute report, found that on a 33-question test on history and political and economic institutions, 71 percent failed—with a 49 percent or worse.

Amazingly, college graduates scored an average of 57 percent—only 13 percent higher than non-college graduates. In a cnsNews report on the study, Darryl DeMarzio, an education professor at the University of Scranton, attributed this to the lack of history being taught, and the way it is taught, in higher education:

One of the purposes of a history course now is not the acquisition of historical knowledge, but it’s a vague skill like ‘thinking historically,’ or something like that.The culprit is that teachers are steeped in a philosophy called ‘constructivism.’That’s the idea that knowledge is not something that teachers possess and give to students or teach students. Rather, knowledge is a process in which students construct meaning for themselves.So a historical question in a history class today is not, ‘Who were the major political participants of World War ii?’ But it’s ‘What do you think of World War ii?’ or ‘What might we learn from World War ii?’ Think for yourself. Construct your own knowledge, your own meaning out of this.

Even worse, elected officials who took the survey scored five points lower than the average person. For example, 43 percent of politicians did not know what the electoral college does. And 79 percent of them didn’t know that the Bill of Rights forbids the government to establish a state religion.

New York Times columnist David Brooks also blamed the education system:

It’s partly political correctness—which is that there are no great men and no great women, it’s all ‘social movements,’ its all people, and its all oppressed people, is who you focus on—and that’s how you show your sympathy. It’s (considered) sort of elitist to look at the great and not the equal.

As Herbert W. Armstrong proved in The United States and Britain in Prophecy, America descended from the ancient Israelite tribe of Manasseh, whose name is derived from the verb “to forget.” To understand the tragic consequences of America’s forgetting of its own history, read Gerald Flurry’s February 2002 Trumpet cover story, “The Law of History.”

The Supreme Court v. The American Constitution

In light of Gerald Flurry’s latest article, “The Radical Left and the American Constitution,” George Will’s column today, “Reinventing the Second Amendment,” is worth a read. He describes the dangerous judicial reasoning behind Roe v. Wade:

In Roe, the court said that the 14th Amendment guarantee of ‘due process’ implies a general right of privacy, within which lurks a hitherto unnoticed abortion right that, although it is ‘fundamental,’ the Framers never mentioned. And this right somehow contains the trimester scheme of abortion regulations.Since 1973 the court has been entangled in the legislative function of adumbrating an abortion code the details of which are, Wilkinson says, ‘not even remotely suggested by the text or history of the 14th Amendment.’ Parental consent? Spousal consent? Spousal notification? Parental notification? Waiting periods? Lack of funding for nontherapeutic abortions? Partial-birth abortion procedures? Zoning ordinances that exclude abortion facilities? The court has tried to tickle answers for these and other policy questions from the Constitution.Conservatives are correct: The court, having asserted a right on which the Constitution is silent, has been writing rules that are detailed, debatable, inescapably arbitrary and irreducibly political.

Will shows how similar legal contortions lie behind the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on District of Columbia v. Heller regarding the right to bear arms, a ruling that many conservatives celebrated, since, in this case, the faulty reasoning served their own cause.

Undermining the authority of the Constitution is dangerous regardless of who does it, as it exalts human reasoning above legal principle fundamentally based on the Bible. As Will quotes J. Harvie Wilkinson: These rulings diminish liberty by “handing our democratic destiny to the courts.”

World Officially in a Recession

According to Stratfor’s assessment on Friday, the global downturn has three strands:

In the United States, the subprime housing collapse triggered a liquidity crisis. In Europe, the American liquidity crisis triggered a much broader and deeper housing crisis. And in Japan—and the rest of East Asia—the enervated demand in the United States and Europe is now triggering an export crisis. Three very different but interlinked recessions have now formed something that the world has not seen since 1975: simultaneous recessions throughout the developed world.

Stratfor highlights the dramatic decline in international shipping rates, the near-zero return on 13-week U.S. treasury bills, and the beating 401k accounts have taken in the stock market downturn. The bottom line, Stratfor says,

is that the global economy is in a situation where countries are going to start cracking. Iceland, actually, has cracked already—but with only 330,000 inhabitants, it conceivably could have gone down in flames without being a harbinger of things to come in the rest of the world.Hungary and Pakistan, however, may be a different story. Both are entering International Monetary Fund receivership, and the mutating economic dysfunction in each holds dire consequences for many other countries. Hungary is an EU member, and the European Union’s efforts to stabilize it are leaving the bloc less well-equipped to address rapidly growing problems in Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and France (with the problems erupting roughly in that order).Pakistan, for its part, has become ground zero in the U.S.-jihadist war, and having an economic collapse there would—to put it mildly—complicate any efforts to find the al Qaeda apex leadership. And that does not even begin to address the economic fissures that are opening in places as far afield as China, Russia and Brazil. Economic weakness inevitably has military and political consequences, and the wave is only now beginning to crest.Geopolitics is about the intersection of the struggles for political, military and economic power, constrained by the unforgiving crucible of geography. Between the flux in the international system, the American presidential transition and a recession that is now truly global, we are seeing geopolitical change at a dizzying rate. Hold on to your hat.

Iran and the Bomb

Iran now has enough material for one atomic bomb reported the Times on Friday. The latest International Atomic Energy Agency’s report on Iran’s nuclear program concluded that Iran has produced 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium—roughly enough to make one atomic bomb according to nuclear physicists.

Though there are more steps involved in the process—such as further enrichment of the uranium—“this development represents yet another ominous milestone in the Iranian effort to achieve nuclear weapons capability” according toMarket Watch.

The report also said that Iran is working to double its number of centrifuges. European diplomats say Iran might have up to 6,000 centrifuges working to enrich uranium by the year’s end and is planning to install another 3,000 early next year, according to a different article in the Times.

Top nuclear physicist Richard Garwin expressed doubt that Tehran could design a bomb but admitted, “They clearly have enough material for a bomb.”

According to Reuters, a French Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “Our concerns are also reinforced by the recent development of Iran’s ballistic missile program,” referring to Iran’s claim last week that it had test-fired advanced surface-to-surface missiles.

American Jewish Committee Executive Director David Harris said, “This week’s iaea report on the Iranian nuclear program, coupled with earlier studies, should serve as a pressing wake-up call for the international community.” But instead of an appeal to the U.S. for help, Mr. Harris said, “It is high time for the un security council, the European Union and key nations with ties to Iran to adopt further measures—political, commercial and financial—to ensure that Iran gets the clear message that ‘it can’t have its yellow cake and eat it, too.’” He said if they do not take action, a nuclear Iran would “pose an unprecedented threat to regional and global security.”

Taiwan Edges Closer to China

Ten years ago, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote, “These 21 million [Taiwanese] people are going to be forced into the Chinese mold; and it is going to happen for one reason: because of a pitifully weak-willed America.”

Forty years earlier, Herbert W. Armstrong, the late founder and editor in chief of the Trumpet’s predecessor, the Plain Truth, predicted the same fate for Taiwan. In a Sept. 19, 1958, letter, he wrote, “Will Red China invade and capture [Taiwan]? In all probability, yes …. The Red Chinese will ‘save face,’ and the United States, with many American troops now on Taiwan, will again lose face!”

Today, Taiwan’s entrance into the Chinese fold is happening. Although the historically tempestuous China-Taiwan relationship has been improving for some time now, relations between the two took a great leap earlier this month when China’s Chen Yunlin, the head of China’s Association of Relations, visited Taiwan. That visit, reported the Washington Times, marked a “historic breakthrough in relations between Taiwan and mainland China.”

Yunlin was the highest-ranking Chinese official to travel to Taiwan for negotiations since 1949. His trip resulted in several agreements between China and Taiwan, including agreements “for an increase in air and shipping links, deepening postal links and greater cooperation on food safety.” Beyond these agreements, both nations also agreed to conduct similar discussions every six months, which more than likely indicates a future of further cooperation between Beijing and Taipei.

While cooperation between China and Taiwan may appear to be healthy, it’s not—not unless cooperation can be defined as democratic Taiwan submitting to China’s interests and China conceding very little in return. The Times continued:

There is an increasing concern that [Taiwan president] Ma [Ying-jeou] is not extracting sufficient concessions from China and that these increased ties, although welcome by the vast majority, may result ultimately in undermining Taiwan’s sovereignty. …The pro-independence protesters fear that Mr. Ma is gradually weakening Taiwan’s position in regard to its larger, authoritarian neighbor.

For more than 50 years, Washington has been the linchpin and guarantor of Taiwan’s efforts to oppose Communist China and remain independent from the mainland, providing Taipei with political and diplomatic support, a vibrant economic partnership and hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware. “Without America’s military and psychological support, [Taiwan] would have already been conquered by mainland China,” wrote Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry in 1998 in “Taiwan Betrayal.”

Problem is, America’s increasing reliance on China as a primary trade partner and a chief financier of U.S. debt over the past decade has forced it to weaken its support of Taiwanese independence. America’s waning support of Taiwan, which gained traction during the Clinton administration, is one of the primary reasons behind the movement inside Taiwan for greater cooperation with mainland China. Taiwan is seeking cooperation with China largely because it is cognizant of China’s regional supremacy (including the 1,200-odd missiles aimed at Taiwan), as well as the fact that due to its over-stretched and increasingly introverted foreign-policy agenda, America is no longer a staunch and reliable ally.

Just as Gerald Flurry warned a decade ago, Taiwan is being steamrolled by China because of “a pitifully weak-willed America.”

Soft Leaders Are Best?

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made U.S. News and World Report’s list of “America’s Best Leaders” for 2008 for his ability to “look for uses of ‘soft power’ in a hard-power world.” He was repeatedly praised for his complete departure from the “shock and awe” strategy of his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld.

According to Gates, “The U.S. military’s ability to kick down the door must be matched by our ability to clean up the mess and even rebuild the house afterward. … In the broader battle for hearts and minds abroad, we have to be as good at listening to others as we are at telling them our story.”

“Speak out Charles, our teenage politicians never will”

The British monarchy will soon be a dead institution unless the sovereign begins to speak out. The present queen is undoubtedly very nice, says the Daily Mail, but she has badly damaged the throne by failing to speak out on important issues—especially against the surrender of our independence to the European Union; the onslaught of a multiculturalist policy that is radically changing the demographics of the nation; and the rigged Northern Ireland referendum that will eventually place English citizens under Dublin rule.

The Daily Mail says, “When a rigged, whipped Parliament is dominated by teenage social liberals who know little and care nothing of the national heritage,” it’s the job of the monarch to upset this unhealthy arrangement. “It is true that by doing so he will risk the future of the Crown. But, if he fails to rock the royal boat, the monarchy will in any case be finished soon.”

It’s Called Anarchy

A Chicago Sun-Times column yesterday reported on the aggressive reaction of homosexual activists to the recent voter rejection of same-sex “marriage” in some states. The hostility with which they have lashed out at those who voted for Proposition 8 demonstrates the radical left’s intolerance. As our editor in chief wrote on Friday, what liberals “really want to do is shut down dissent.“ At the same time, it is worth considering how different the reaction of the liberal media would be to the racism demonstrated by these homosexual activists if it came from any other (less-liberal) group.

Blacks and Mormons have been the main targets of the gay activists’ anger. Seventy percent of blacks voted against gay marriage in California, so racial epithets were hurled at blacks in Los Angeles—not in black neighborhoods, by the way.Blacks who just happened to be driving through Westwood, near ucla, were accosted in their cars and, in addition to being denounced, were warned, ‘You better watch your back.’Even blacks who were carrying signs in favor of gay marriage were denounced with racial epithets.In Michigan, an evangelical church service was invaded and disrupted by gay activists, who also set off a fire alarm, because evangelicals had dared to exercise their right to express their opinions at the polls.In Oakland, Calif., a mob gathered outside a Mormon temple in such numbers that officials shut down a nearby freeway exit for more than three hours. …Another gay activist mob gathered outside a Mormon temple in Orange County, Calif. …While demanding tolerance from others, gay activists apparently feel no need to show any themselves.How did we get to this kind of situation?With all the various groups who act as if they have a right to win, we got to the present situation over the years, going back to the 1960s, where the idea started gaining acceptance that people who felt aggrieved don’t have to follow the rules or even the law.’No justice, no peace!’ was a slogan that found resonance.Like so many slogans, it sounds good if you don’t stop and think—and awful if you do.Almost by definition, everybody thinks their cause is just. Does that mean that nobody has to obey the rules? That is called anarchy. … When the majority of the people become like sheep who will tolerate intolerance rather than make a fuss, then there is no limit to how far any group will go.

“Can the Obamas Choose a Church? Will We Let Them?”

The Obamas are moving away from Chicago and the now-infamous Trinity United Church of Christ. Now they face a possibly thorny decision: After Jeremiah Wright, who will be their new pastor, and where will they go to church?

As the first African-American First Family, will they be criticized if they choose a black church, or if they don’t? If they choose a white pastor, or if they don’t? If they choose a United Methodist or American Baptist congregation rather than a historically black denomination? If they choose a church across town, or in a tonier part of town rather than one near the White House?

One thing is clear. In modern Israel, for all its implications and careful calculations, what and where a leader chooses to worship has little or nothing to do with heartfelt repentance and actual faith in God to lead the country.

Arrrrrrrrrrr!

In the aftermath of the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s loss of the $100 million Sirius Star in the Gulf of Aden, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdel Qader Jassem Mohammed al-Obeidi has issued a warning: If U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq prematurely, “our gulf will become like the Gulf of Aden, where there have been 95 acts of piracy.” Iraq will have no ships of its own until April 2009. Breaking away from journalistic objectivity for a moment, the Agence France-Presse article commented that the Iraqi defense minister did not “explain how the Gulf would become prey to pirates when one of its littoral states, Bahrain, is home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.” That is, of course, the same fleet that was protecting the Gulf of Aden and, presumably, the Sirius Star. Given the spineless response of the Fifth Fleet to the largest act of piracy in history, it is easy to envision how the Gulf of Bahrain, through which most of the world’s energy is exported, could become the disaster that Obeidi warned of—unless other powers that have the will to use their power fill the gap the U.S. leaves behind.

Meanwhile, as America dithers on the correct way to respond to the increased number of pirate attacks, Germany is already making plans as to how it should respond should a Captain Black Jack and his band of miscreants threaten German interests on the high seas.

Britain on Same Course as Iceland?

Iceland’s economy, for all practical purposes, collapsed last month. And the UK may be heading the same way, according to the Times, which asked, “Is Britain simply a bigger version of Iceland? … It is an exaggeration, but not that much of an exaggeration, to liken the UK to the broken, bankrupt North Atlantic island.”

Like Iceland, we boast a huge banking industry out of all proportion to the overall economy. Like Iceland, we have an unfunded depositor lifeboat scheme totally unequipped to grapple with failing banks. Like Iceland, our national output is dwarfed by the vast liabilities of our banks. Like Iceland, our banks for years scoffed at relying on domestic depositors to fund their activities and developed a dangerous addiction to wholesale money. Like Iceland, our Government is poised to go on a borrowing spree to try to soften the pain. Like Iceland, our currency is on the skids as foreign investors pull out.

The Times goes on to explain how the British public has no idea how dire the situation is (emphasis ours):

The scale of our problems has still not been understood. In essence the domestic banks are largely bust. The government’s £500 billion bailout plan is primarily designed not to keep banks lending to small firms and to homebuyers but to prevent an unimaginable financial calamity.Banks provide the very foundations and plumbing of the entire economy. A failure of confidence in them could still bring the entire capitalist edifice tumbling down. …At the risk of hyperbole, we should not be worrying about whether this is going to be a thin Christmas for retailers (it is), but whether Britain and the West are about to plunge into a years-long economic Dark Age—complete with mass unemployment and social unrest.

Britain is in serious financial trouble, something theTrumpet.com has predicted for years. For more information on what is coming, read “Prepare to Reduce Your Standard of Living—Now!”

Elsewhere on the Web

Thanksgiving is this Thursday in the United States. The following day is known among retailers as “Black Friday”—the day they see some of their heaviest traffic as the Christmas consumerist binge begins. The Financial Times explains,

The term has traditionally been taken to mean the date that retailers’ finances went into the black, or the heavy road traffic that used to ensue from millions of Americans making pilgrimages to worship at the retail shrine. But if the dire news from across the US economy has sunk in even among the world’s most optimistic shoppers, it might instead mark another dark day for the U.S. economy.

This Washington Post religion panel discussion titled “Thanksgiving to Whom?” shows just how confused we are on the fundamental concept of who to thank (for what may or may not be blessings from what may or may not be a God or some other assorted type of Higher Power). It’s hard enough to get people to remember Thanksgiving as more than the start of the Christmas shopping season, but apparently now the question of who we are thanking is up for interpretation and debate.

And Finally …

This just in, research shows that unhappy people watch 30 percent more television than happy people!