With crisis comes opportunity. At least, for clever leaders with vision it can. Imagine Hitler’s career without the economic and social mayhem of the 1920s and ’30s; or Napoleon’s without the French Revolution. Europe’s most odious figures were forged in the fires of severe crisis.

It could happen again. Soon!

Perhaps that sounds extreme. But so did Winston Churchill’s indefatigable warning cry to most of Western civilization from 1932 till the day Hitler’s actions came to his defense. Believe it or not, it’s a demonstrable law of European history. Severe crises spawn opportunity for cagey leaders with dark dreams.

Today, Europe is flush with crises. Just as it was during the rise of Hitler and Napoleon. The Trumpet has considered many of these recently: the financial firestorm smoking European economies, pockets of extreme political and social unrest cropping up on the Continent, and more.

When the New Year dawned last week, it brought with it two fresh crises. For Europe—and one nation in particular—that meant two fresh opportunities!

The Gaza Conflict

Israel’s war with Hamas is not a crisis for Europe per se. But it does exacerbate an existential crisis in the European Union.

Europe’s response to the war in the Gaza Strip has been energetic. Problem is, energy spent without consensus and direction only adds to the chaos and confusion. “Divisions in Europe about Israel’s incursion into Gaza were laid bare when the EU failed to coordinate a united response to rival peace missions headed to the region,” the Times observed (emphasis mine throughout).

The Times was referring to dual peace missions launched by Europe earlier this week. The first was the official EU delegation, led by Karel Schwarzenberg, the foreign minister for the Czech Republic, which assumed the EU presidency January 1 and for the next six months is supposed to be the face of EU policy. The second was spearheaded by Nicolas Sarkozy, the flamboyant French president who recently handed off the EU presidency—or was supposed to, at least. Not only did both groups arrive in the region separately within hours of each other, they met, separately, with virtually the same set of regional leaders.

Sarkozy’s jaunt, wrote Stratfor, “flies in the face of EU protocol and is a very visible vote of non-confidence for Prague’s ability to command respect as the EU president.” The variety of responses to Israel’s invasion—ranging from the Czechs, Dutch and some Eastern European states expressing sympathy for Israel’s right to defend itself, to the French and British refusal to do so—shed further light on the clear lack of unity within the EU.

The EU’s muddled, multipronged approach to the Gaza war exposes perhaps its most glaring flaw: divided, sometimes feeble, oftentimes competing leadership!

That’s the crisis; where’s the opportunity?

For the EU, the Gaza war is a chance to exert itself as a major player in the world of geopolitics. This is exactly what it has done, with enthusiasm—albeit in a rather dysfunctional, shotgun-like manner. “The arrival of the European Union delegation,” observed Gerald Steinberg in the Jerusalem Post, “represents the first serious external diplomatic involvement since the Gaza fighting began ….”

That’s a noteworthy observation. To be sure, the Bush administration has been Israel’s most ardent supporter in this war—meaning that America’s opposition to Israel’s actions is less intense than that of most of the rest of the international community, not that Washington is in wholehearted support. America’s support of its primary ally in the Middle East, in fact, has been tragically mute. Even now, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has no plans to visit Israel, be it as a show of support to the Jewish state or to broker a peace agreement.

Meanwhile, European politicians and EU delegates of all shapes and sizes have been darting in and out of the Middle East!

Much of the reason for America’s rather inert participation has to do with the looming transition of administrations. It’s virtually impossible for the Bush administration to deal in absolutes knowing that in less than two weeks it will replaced by another administration, and one that will quite likely see the Middle East, and particularly Israel, through a different set of glasses. The sidelining of America has created a geopolitical vacuum in the Middle East, which has been emphasized by the Gaza war, and is being filled by Europe.

“Europe has to play a bigger role in the Middle East, and we believe we can,” said Eric Chevallier, special adviser to French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. “We are eager to work with the United States … but we cannot wait.” A spokeswoman for Javier Solana put it a little more candidly: “If you have a European delegation, and you don’t have a U.S. delegation, then the EU will be more visible.”

Europe considers the Gaza crisis a prime opportunity to undermine America’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East and forge itself as a viable and even predominant alternative to the United States!

Russian Gas

Europeans woke to the second crisis on New Year’s Day, when Russia reduced its natural gas exports to Ukraine. Initial reports indicated that this spat would stay between Kiev and the Kremlin, would be short-lived and would not majorly impact Europeans. For their part, Europeans, with supply lines and tanks at full capacity, thought themselves much better prepared for an energy crisis than they were in winter 2006.

Early reports were wrong.

The Kremlin claims the reduction in gas supplies is a money issue. In truth, it is undoubtedly an attempt to destabilize the pro-Western administration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and remind Ukrainians where their allegiance ought to lie. But Ukraine responded by siphoning off gas flowing into EU countries. On Monday night, when it became apparent Kiev wasn’t hurting enough, the Russians shuttered the gas flow further. Then, yesterday, natural gas shipments through the last large operating pipeline through Ukraine were halted, cutting off all gas flowing to Europe through Ukraine.

Russia claims its beef is with Kiev, not Europe. That is diplomatic drivel. The Kremlin is well aware that the EU imports 25 percent of its gas from Russia, 80 percent of which flows through pipelines dissecting Ukraine. Russia is punishing Ukraine, but the pain is resonating across Europe, and Russia knows it. The heat and the lights are now going out up and down the Balkan Peninsula; Bulgarian consumers have been told to switch off gas stoves; Slovakia has declared a state of emergency; other states are reporting deep supply cuts, including Greece, Macedonia, Hungary, Croatia, Austria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, France, Germany and Italy. Worse yet, experts say this crisis—unlike the crisis of 2006, which only lasted three days—could drag on for several days, if not more.

The stakes are high and getting higher. This is about politics and reputation as much as it is about economics. As Stratfor observed earlier this week, “Moscow is now looking to establish a more permanent pro-Kremlin government in Kiev. By using the natural gas cutoff to pressure Kiev from inside the country as well as from Europe, Russia is lining up all its players in the run-up to what most likely will be a highly eventful 2009 in Ukraine—one in which Russia wants to ensure what that country will look like by year’s end” (January 5). Meddling in Ukraine has become a national pastime for the Kremlin. On Monday night, while much of the world consumed its regular television diet of sitcoms, movies and reality shows, Russians watched former president and current Prime Minister Putin tell Gazprom ceo Alexei Miller on live tv to “cut” gas supplies to Ukraine. That’s reality tv—Putin-style.

It seems Russia’s goal of prying Ukraine from the hands of the Europeans might be coming to fruition. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso gave Ukraine a fairly blatant warning yesterday: “Ukraine says it wants to be closer to the EU. If it wants to be closer, it should not create any problems for gas to come to the EU.” That must have been music in the ears of Putin and his cohorts.

Watch this crisis closely. Russia’s energy leverage infuriates the Europeans! The longer this crisis continues, the more their concerns will intensify. And so will the gnawing realization among European countries that the Continent needs to somehow reduce its dependence on Russian energy. As the Trumpet has explained before, expect this crisis to provide opportunity and justification for Europe to pursue alternative energy options such as nuclear energy plants. Watch for it to court alternative energy suppliers in Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. And don’t be surprised if Russian energy belligerence gives excuse for greater European energy belligerence as Europe increasingly casts its eyes over the natural resources of lesser powers.

The German Solution

Both the Gaza conflict and the Russian energy crisis are creating opportunities for one European nation in particular: Germany.

Europe’s multipronged response to the Gaza war exposes its lack of streamlined leadership and strong unity of command. The Czechs, although they currently hold the EU presidency, clearly lack the support of many of the other 27 EU member states, particularly France. Meanwhile, Paris, coming off a seemingly successful stint as head of the EU, is at odds with Berlin. It is also considered by many, especially in the wake of its jaunt to the Middle East this week, to be too unpredictable, careless and flamboyant to represent Europe to the world.

Germany is watching these events and positioning itself to emerge as the solution to Europe’s leadership crisis.

Berlin itself is at odds with much of the rest of Europe at the moment. But relations between nations are fickle and fluid in times of uncertainty. The worse conditions grow, the more crises erupt and the more apparent the need for a united Europe with strong leadership becomes, the more that European states will look to a nation with the commensurate geopolitical acumen, international respect, relative economic health and vision for leadership. As crises grow, Europe will become ripe for a strong leader.

That nation is Germany.

The Russian gas crisis will have exactly the same effect. It has become increasingly evident in recent times that Germany wields by far the most influence over European policy and, thanks to its political and economic weight, essentially dictates EU foreign policy. Perhaps the most important lesson from the Georgian crisis of last August is that Germany is the mediator between Russia and Europe.

Will Germany be central to solving the current gas crisis?

Obviously, part of the solution to the current gas crisis revolves around some sort of reconciliation between Kiev and Moscow. Russia will likely turn the faucets back on when Ukraine shows itself willing to take a more pro-Russian tack. But if recent history is any indication, Germany is a central factor in this crisis. Will Germany pressure Ukraine to acquiesce to Russian demands? Of all the European states, Germany is on by far the best terms with Russia. The solution to this crisis very likely runs through Berlin!

Watch Germany! Whispers of secret deals between Germany and Russia have been circulating for months, and Berlin already signaled during the Georgian crisis that it’s not overly committed to Ukraine. One event to watch in particular is the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, her primary political opponent Frank Walter-Steinmeier and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, scheduled for January 16. The hopes of European states will be hanging on Germany’s ability to assuage the Russians. Should Berlin succeed, and perhaps even make headway on a Russo-European security or energy pact, it will go a long way to restoring its own relationship with European states and cementing Germany as the clear-cut leader of Europe.

Both the Gaza conflict and the Russian gas crisis are fluid, and the effervescent nature of these crises makes the details hard to predict. One thing is for certain, however: If opportunity comes with crisis—and history says it does—then these conflicts are flush with opportunities—for Europe, for Germany, and according to Bible prophecy, even for a clever, visionary leader. To learn more, read Daniel Unlocks Revelation, especially Chapter 1.