Middle East

Iran carried out its first successful satellite launch on Tuesday. Experts around the world fear that Iran can now launch missiles into southern Europe. “The technology that is used to get this satellite into orbit,” said Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrel, “is one that could also be used to propel long-range ballistic missiles.” The two-stage-rocket launch demonstrates huge progress in Iran’s rocket technology, according to Massachusetts Institute of Technology research associate Geoffrey Forden.

Hamas sees the war in Gaza as part of a bigger campaign leading to the capture of Jerusalem, the Middle East Media Research Institute reported last week. At a rally in Qatar to mark the “Gaza victory,” senior Hamas official Ismail Radhwan said, “The Gaza victory has paved the way to Jerusalem, Haifa, Jaffa, the Negev, and the West Bank.” Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mashal has said “the residents of the West Bank must rise up and resist until victory, as happened in Gaza.” Hamas is in fact a tool of Iran—and Iran fervently wants Jerusalem.

Iraq held provincial elections on January 31. Preliminary results show that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Coalition for the State of Law has come out on top, gaining more votes than many expected. Maliki, a Shiite Islamist politician who has close ties to Iran but campaigned as a secular Iraqi nationalist, is in favor of a strong central government. The general consensus in the media is that his win is bad news for Iran, which already has heavy influence in Iraq and seeks to cement it. It must be remembered, however, that even though the more staunch Shiite religious parties—including the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is Tehran’s closest ally in Iraq—did not do so well, Maliki and his Dawa party are still very pro-Iran, and Maliki’s electoral coalition consisted mostly of Shiite Islamists. Just last month, Maliki visited Iran and pledged closer cooperation, stating that Iran was Iraq’s “most important partner in all fields of cooperation.” Additionally, it was Maliki who drove a hard bargain with the U.S. in reaching the November security agreement that dictates terms and conditions and departure deadlines for U.S. forces in Iraq. While the provincial elections may reflect a more unified Iraq—and allow for U.S. forces to leave Iraq even earlier than anticipated—that unity will be to the benefit of Iran more than America. Don’t expect any shift in Iraq’s pro-Iran policy.

Europe

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has openly criticized Pope Benedict xvi over his decision to lift the ex-communication of the ultra-conservative, Holocaust-denying Bishop Richard Williamson. While stressing that she did not usually comment on internal church affairs, Merkel said, “This is about the pope and the Vatican making very clear that there can be no (Holocaust) denial and that there must be positive relations with Judaism. In my opinion these clarifications are not yet sufficient. This should not be allowed to pass without consequences” (emphasis ours). Although Merkel later praised the pope after he called for Williamson to recant his Holocaust denial, we still expect the Vatican to undermine Merkel in the upcoming elections. “People in the Vatican are downright appalled at the discussion in Germany,” Christian Democratic Union spokesman Georg Brunnhuber told the Financial Times Deutschland. He added that this has given the impression “that all anti-Catholic resentments slumbering in Germany are now rising to the surface.” Merkel’s comments put her on dangerous ground. Criticizing the pope is not a clever political move. For more information, see our May 2008 Trumpet article “Angela Merkel’s Historic Holocaust Speech (But Does the Pope Agree?).”

On Wednesday, president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas urged Europe to play a bigger role in the Middle East. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasburg, Abbas called for the international community to get more involved in Israel. “I would like to stress again our request for the sending of international forces in order to protect our people,” he said. Watch for Europe to take a greater interest in the region.

Germany and France staged a show of unity this week. Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for greater European and global cooperation on security. “We Europeans must speak even more with one voice,” wrote the two leaders in a joint statement, “which requires a strong measure of discipline from the member states, and we must further bundle and increase our capabilities, both civilian and military. The synergy between both is the trademark of European security policy.” To highlight this increase in unity, German troops will now be stationed in France for the first time since World War ii. These troops will be part of the 5,000-strong joint Franco-German Brigade, a rapid reaction force. “Anyone who knows our common history will be aware of the historical significance of this new step in the Franco-German friendship,” said the statement. This is quite correct. European states working ever more closely together to “bundle and increase” their military capabilities fulfills a biblical prophecy we have highlighted for over 70 years. Soon, once again, Europe will be a major military player.

Asia

Japan will dispatch two destroyers to the waters off the coast of Somalia in a mission designed to protect Japanese commercial vessels from piracy. The details of this long-debated deployment were finally announced on Wednesday by an official from the Japanese Defense Ministry. It has not yet been announced exactly when these battleships will depart, but media reports say the dispatch could come as early as March. The Somali pirates are providing the Japanese with a relatively non-threatening excuse to chip away at the limits the Japanese Constitution places on the use of military force. Many analysts already rank the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force as the second-most powerful navy in the world. As Tokyo continues to sideline its pacifist constitution, its defense force could quickly evolve into one of the deadliest forces on Earth. For more information on the future of the Japanese military in world affairs, read our February 2003 Trumpet article “Japan’s Place in the Future.”

The Kremlin has sent a clear message to U.S. President Barack Obama that Moscow fully intends to pull the former Soviet states of Central Asia back into the Russian sphere of influence. On Wednesday, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced that the states of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan would be joining with Russia to form a collective security alliance on par with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (nato). This declaration came only one day after Kyrgyzstan announced its plans to evict the United States from the base it has been using to ferry large numbers of American troops into Afghanistan. The Russians have said this Kyrgyz base may be used to house Russian troops instead. Expect America to continue to lose ground in both Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia as Russia moves to regain its old stomping grounds. For more information on Russia’s push south, read our Nov. 1, 2005, article “Russia, China and a Central Asian Alliance.”

Africa

Zimbabwe’s leaders have finally signed their long-promised power-sharing deal. On the plus side, this means opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai can finally assume his role as prime minister. On the minus side, it appears he has inherited Zimbabwe’s economic and social chaos, while President Robert Mugabe has retained all of the real power, delegating only what Stratfor terms “non-regime-threatening portfolios.” The EU issued a statement saying it will not remove sanctions on Zimbabwe until the new government has fully complied with the terms of the deal. Meanwhile, at 94 percent unemployment, society continues to break down.

On February 5, the U.S. Navy watched as pirates received payment in Somalia. The military even provided Associated Press with pictures. Pirates were paid $3.2 million in return for releasing one boat, the mv Faina. “Even when you release Faina, there are still 147 mariners held hostage,” Cmdr. Jane Campbell, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy’s Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, told the AP. “We’re concerned for their well-being.” After expressing the military’s pleasure at the resolution of the situation, Vice Adm. Bill Gortney of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command stated that the Navy is working with the international community to “find a long-term, shore-based solution to this maritime crime.” In other words, it certainly is not going to go after the pirates. Read “Pirates Expose America’s Broken Will” in the February Trumpet for more on how this situation has developed—and why.

Anglo-America

The eighth-largest economy in the world started breaking rules outright on Monday. California halted $3.5 billion that it had committed to pay, including tax rebate checks and other payments to contractors, counties and social service agencies. With its economy contracting, record numbers losing their homes, and 13.8 percent more people on food stamps than were last year, this development breaks at a bad time for Californians. But with a $42 billion deficit through 2010, California has little choice. We can expect California to continue to face intensifying economic and environmental curses.

In other economic news, Europe and other economic powers have handed President Barack Obama his first defeat, forcing a major compromise on the “buy American” provision in the ever-growing $900 billion spending package that will notionally stanch America’s fiscal hemorrhaging. Threatening that a trade war could result, Europe, China and Canada backed Washington down, forcing the Senate to dilute the provision in order to be “consistent with international trade agreements,” whereby infrastructure contractors won’t exclude foreign bidders from supplying the steel and other materials needed to execute the spending directives. Preserving the billions for Americans and American companies was already proving virtually impossible. Many companies whose American factories will receive billions in economic benefits are actually owned by foreigners. Companies in Japan, France, South Korea and Germany are building factories in the U.S. to make solar cells, lithium batteries, turbines, subway trains and other products that will benefit from $900 billion in new American tax money. The solution to America’s economic loss of altitude is nowhere on the radar.