Pinning Down the German Proteus
In Greek mythology, the sea god Proteus possessed the mysterious ability to assume different forms. “He could be a roaring lion, a harmless sheep, a slippery serpent, a charging bull, or in turn, a rock, a tree, a brook, a bonfire,” observes Italian historian Luigi Barzini. This unique power made it difficult for others to decipher Proteus’s nature and intent.
In The Europeans, Barzini explains how the German national character possesses the Proteus-like quality of being malleable, changeable and unpredictable. This, he says, often makes it difficult to determine the nature and intent of the German state.
If you want evidence of this quality, just try to get an accurate measure of the German economy’s health.
Germany’s Bundesbank announced last week that it expects the recession in Germany to “intensify further” in 2009 than it did in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast that the German economy will contract by as much 5.3 percent this year, a much more worrying outlook than the 2.3 percent predicted by the European Commission in January. “The 5.3 percent contraction,” Stratfor reported, “would represent the biggest decline in Germany—excluding the immediate post-World War ii devastation of 1945 and 1946—since the depths of the Great Depression in 1932 …” (April 21).
“The German economy is in free fall,” the Wall Street Journalreported last Friday. German exports—which account for nearly 47 percent of its gross domestic product—dropped by double digits in January and February. Unemployment is rising, hitting 8.6 percent in March, compared to 7.4 percent in December. More than a million people are expected to lose their jobs in 2009.
If we are to believe these reports, Germany looks like a potential bonfire of rage and frustration.
The latest wave of sackings is a “declaration of war on workers and trade unions,” Michael Sommer, chairman of the German Trade Union Federation, said. “Social unrest can no longer be ruled out.”
If the government doesn’t take drastic action soon, “the mood [inside Germany] could turn explosive” within three months, warned Gesine Swann, a presidential candidate for the Social Democrats. Even Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Social Democratic Party candidate for the chancellorship, kicked off his campaign with a somber warning. “Something is smoldering in our country,” he said. “Anger and indignation are rife. The people’s sense of justice has been violated.”
It is indisputable, right? Germany totters on the lip of economic and social catastrophe.
Not so fast.
Germans are partying like it’s 2008, Newsweek wrote earlier this month. The “main reason that most Germans have yet to feel affected by the crisis is, to put it simply, that they haven’t yet been affected” (emphasis mine throughout). While the French are kidnapping their bosses and hitting the streets in mass protests, “their neighbors in Germany seem curiously unmoved by the economic nosedive,” reported Germany’s Der Spiegel on Tuesday in an article titled “Why Is Germany So Calm?” “Why Is It Still So Quiet?” mused the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine.
These rosier perceptions are not unjustified. Germany’s first-quarter figures on capital investment showed investor confidence at a two-year high, while its Small Business Index showed positive growth recently. March auto sales were up 40 percent over last year, and according to polls, only 13 percent of Germans think their personal finances might be affected by the economic crisis. Last month, Stratfor wrote that “while Germany faces the same pressures and pains as many other states in dealing with the global recession, it is not in the same boat as the rest. In fact, the recession is providing a wealth of opportunities for Berlin to expand its influence” (March 6).
Talk about Proteus-like. Some perceive the German economy and populace to be a raging bonfire, others consider it a trickling brook. If analysts are confused by its current state, how can anyone forecast the future?
Similar contrasting perceptions about current German politics and foreign policy hamper efforts to develop forecasts about Germany’s political future. Militarily, for example, Germany has a post-World War ii reputation for being pacifist. The Germans opposed America’s war in Iraq and seemingly have little interest in contributing meaningfully to nato efforts in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the German military sits on the cutting edge of military surveillance, is actively engaged in confronting pirates off the coast of Somalia, and is dedicating almost €500 million (us$633 million) from its latest economic stimulus package to beefing up its firepower.
People can’t tell if the German military is a roaring lion or a harmless sheep presently—let alone forecast what it might be in the future.
Germany’s Proteus-like quality gives it a certain intrigue and allure. It also makes it distressingly opaque for many, incredibly hard to predict and easy to underestimate. What is the state of the German economy, and what lies ahead in the future? Are the German people irate, or are they calm? With German national elections scheduled for September, can we accurately forecast the short-term future of German politics? What does the future hold for the German military? These are important questions. But determining the nature and future of Germany is virtually impossible if all we possess is a dense, confusing fog of current conflicting information.
However, pinning down the German Proteus and deciphering its political and economic direction is much simpler if we are willing to brandish the analytical tools of history and prophecy!
In recent months, analysts have made many comparisons between the current global financial meltdown and the Great Depression that began in America in 1929 and quickly spread around the world. The depression of the 1930s inflicted catastrophic damage on the German economy, causing savings accounts to dry up, mass deflation following the hyperinflation of the 1920s, a plummet in exports and industrial output and skyrocketing unemployment. It was amid this economic and social chaos that Adolf Hitler’s National Socialist Party—promising jobs, prosperous living and the redemption of German pride—began to thrive, quickly gaining influence in the Reichstag and ultimately placing Hitler in the chancellor’s seat in January 1933.
This history shows that economic meltdown and social chaos inside Germany can give rise to forceful leaders. Conditions in Germany aren’t yet as dire as they were in 1931-32. But people are increasingly seeing parallels, and current conditions certainly have the potential to deteriorate rapidly. The worse conditions become, the more history will declare the likely outcome.
The most valuable instrument in deciphering events and trends in Germany is Bible prophecy. A multitude of end-time Bible prophecies warn that immediately prior to Jesus Christ’s return, Germany (descending from the biblical nation of Assyria) will rise to the top of European politics. It will then—at first subtly and cunningly, but then forcefully and violently—make itself the dictator of what the late Herbert Armstrong termed a European beast power.
While others peer through the fog, trying to decipher and report on the nature of the German Proteus and its plans and ambitions, the Trumpet maintains its legacy of consistently articulating a clear and definite forecast about future events in Germany. Using Bible prophecy, we pin down Proteus, expose his nature and forecast his future. Here’s what we do know: First, the German economy, even if it wanes in the short term, will recover, and then thrive. Second, we know that Germany will take the helm of a European political and economic combine, thanks to support from the Vatican. Third, we know that Germany will use, on a large and terrible scale, its expanding military.
In addition to these sure prophecies, we also believe, as Gerald Flurry wrote recently, that the coming German national elections in September could “produce the political leader of the Holy Roman Empire.”
These are bold forecasts. And we don’t toss them around casually. Each of these forecasts is underpinned by such pivotal Bible passages as Isaiah 10; Daniel 2, 7 and 11; Nahum 2; Hosea 8; Matthew 24; Revelation 13 and 17. Following the biblical revelation articulated by Herbert W. Armstrong, the Trumpet staff has studied the prophecies in detail and tested their veracity against historical fact. Convinced of their accuracy, these prophecies form the foundation of our analysis and forecasts. We’d like to share these same truths with you. If you’re interested, request and read, in this order: The United States and Britain in Prophecy, Germany and the Holy Roman Empire, and Who or What Is the Prophetic Beast?
Equipped with the sure word of Bible prophecy, you too will be capable of pinning down the shape-shifting German Proteus!