Middle East

Parliamentary elections were held in Lebanon last Sunday in which the governing majority—an alliance of pro-Western and anti-Iran, anti-Syria forces—weathered a strong challenge from the Hezbollah-led opposition. Fears that the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah would take over didn’t materialize. Hezbollah’s alliance actually dropped one legislative seat, winning 57 of the 128 seats. The pro-Western bloc gained a seat, now having 68. Independents fill the other three seats. Though the election results are being widely reported in the media as a defeat for Hezbollah, the real story is more complex, and far less reassuring. In truth, Hezbollah had no intention of taking over the government of Lebanon. Hezbollah itself only stood 11 candidates, all of whom won. Hezbollah is perfectly satisfied with its current position in Lebanon: as the political opposition with veto power—which it will fight to hold on to. Hezbollah has already conquered the nation, for all practical purposes—but it is not interested in governing. Iran only wants to preserve the terrorist organization as a weapon for future use against Israel.

A suicide bombing in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar on Tuesday evening killed 16 people and injured about 50, with several foreigners being among the dead and wounded. Terrorists drove a truck laden with explosives into the five-star Pearl Continental Hotel, where dozens of United Nations officials and other foreigners were located. Two days later, a suicide bomber attacked a police checkpoint in Peshawar, killing three people and injuring 13. Pakistani authorities report that a Taliban commander had warned of retaliation for the army’s offensive in Swat. With the Taliban under pressure from the Pakistani military, such attacks are likely to continue as the Taliban seeks to prove its strength, scare off foreigners and convince the Pakistani public and government that the fight isn’t worth it. It seems the hotel attack has already produced dividends for the Taliban, with some Pakistani media starting to question the value of the Swat offensive. And as Stratfor wrote June 10, “the more attacks that the Taliban can pull off to degrade the public’s confidence, the more wind can be taken out of the military offensive”—and the less value Pakistan will be to the U.S. as an ally.

As U.S. President Barack Obama turns the screws on the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly over Israeli settlements on the West Bank, the Palestinians are edging closer to a possible unity government. On Wednesday, Hamas agreed to attend unity talks with Fatah in Cairo next month, despite a crackdown by Palestinian security forces on Hamas in the West Bank city of Qalqilya last week. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal visited Cairo for the first time in many months for talks with Egypt’s intelligence chief on Tuesday. Two days earlier, Egyptian officials had met with leaders from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah group. In a press conference Tuesday, Mashaal called for the unifying of Palestinian establishments to pave the way for the formation of a Palestinian national unity government. He also appealed for the international community to accept Hamas as a “positive element” in the peace process. As the Associated Press reported, Obama, in his Cairo speech last week, hinted at this being a possibility. Egyptian mediators have set a July 7 deadline for the two Palestinian factions to bridge their divisions in order to form a unity government. As theTrumpet.com columnist Stephen Flurry wrote in February, “Momentum is building for a Hamas-led Palestinian unity government. Watch for it.”

Europe

The results of European parliamentary elections held June 4 to 7 show a marked shift to the right across the Continent. Both center-right and far-right parties made substantial gains. It didn’t matter if the right wing was in government or the opposition; throughout Europe, the right did well, and the left lost out. The economic crisis in Europe coinciding with a right-wing swing in the electorate harkens back to similar times 80 years ago. For decades, the Trumpet has encouraged readers to watch for conditions of crisis in Europe that would once again give rise to a dictator, as end-time prophecies foretell. Those conditions are ripening right now on the European continent. Watch European politics closely. For more information, read Gerald Flurry’s April 6 article, “The German Nightmare Has Returned!”

The showdown between the Catholic Church and the secular Spanish government over the Vatican’s meddling in state affairs continues. Over 40 civic organizations have joined forces to plan a mass demonstration against the government’s proposed changes to the country’s abortion laws. Over 100,000 people plan to take part in the demonstration in Madrid on October 17, according to the spokeswoman for the Right to Life group. For more information on the Vatican’s attempts to use the abortion issue to gain more control over the Spanish government, see our January 7 article “Vatican Fights Spanish Secularism.”

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to Moscow this week to visit with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Asked about relations between the two countries, Steinmeier said, “Russia is an indispensable partner for Germany and the European Union,” and commented on “German-Russian cooperation as a model of interaction, so that both sides will benefit if our potential is united.” U.S. think tank Stratfor noted, “The last time Germany and Russia ‘united their potential,’ the result was the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which carved up Eastern Europe between the Soviet Union and the Third Reich in 1939” (June 11). Stratfor also pointed out that Russia and Germany meet together following every meeting either nation has with America—presenting a united front. Referring to Russia’s rescue of German carmaker Opel last week, Stratfor wrote, “The last-minute assist by the Kremlin might be the first glimpse of a new political alliance developing in Europe.” Watch this alliance closely.

Asia

Brazil, Russia, India and China have announced that they plan to invest in the new International Monetary Fund (imf) bond as they look for alternatives to the U.S. treasury bond. Russia announced Wednesday that it plans to sell some of its $140 billion in treasury bonds in order to invest $10 billion in the new imf bond. China said it plans to buy up to $50 billion worth of the new bonds. India and Brazil also said they will buy imf bonds. “Given the amounts involved—for instance, China has committed to buying about $50 billion of imf bonds—in a pool of $2 trillion of reserves, this is not going to make a big difference,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics at Cornell University. “But symbolically it’s still very important that these emerging markets are looking for an alternative to the dollar in the short term, and this might be a viable option.” The U.S. government is issuing bonds at an unprecedented rate to stay afloat. But the world can see America’s instability, and it is looking for other options. Once a viable alternative to the dollar is found, America is in serious trouble. For a glimpse at what may prove to be the next reserve currency, read “New Global Trend: Dump a Dollar, Buy a Euro” from the March 2007 Trumpet by Brad Macdonald.

Iran and North Korea have been working together to develop their ballistic missiles, the head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency said Thursday. Lieut. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly warned, “It really is an international effort going on out there to develop ballistic missile capability between these countries.” O’Reilly stated that Iran and North Korea are sharing knowledge on avionics, propulsion and materials, among other things. “We’ve seen it for years and it continues,” he said. In a new report, the U.S. Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center stated that Iran could create an icbm (intercontinental ballistic missile) capable of reaching the U.S. by 2015.

Latin America/Africa

Venezuela’s government announced that it will spend an addition $6 billion this year, reversing cutbacks established in March, and perhaps indicating that the government expects the price of oil to continue rising. About half of Venezuela’s revenue comes from oil profits.

Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai will visit with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on June 11 and U.S. President Barack Obama on June 12 in an attempt to raise money to help revitalize his country. Prime Minister Tsvangirai is asking for an injection of $2 billion, possibly reaching $10 billion total, to spur job creation and infrastructure development. The reality, though, is that his opponents—President Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF—yielded little real power to him, and Western governments are unlikely to commit significant funding to the prime minister while the president is still holding the steering wheel. According to Stratfor, this could allow Mugabe to portray the new prime minister as ineffective—although Mugabe himself will have both originated and perpetuated Zimbabwe’s horrific national calamities.

Anglo-America

European parliamentary elections handed Britain’s ruling Labor Party a beating. Euroskeptic groups like the Conservative Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party (ukip) made major gains. ukip, once considered a fringe party, actually outperformed Labor. As conservative Euroskeptic parties benefit from the Labor parliamentary corruption scandal, watch for increasing pressure on Britain’s politicians to pull away from the EU.

As the deadlines for their state budget approvals approach, many states are having trouble balancing the books. Unlike the federal government, state governments are generally expected to balance their budgets. California is in the biggest trouble. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger warned June 2 that unless the budget was balanced by June 15, the state would be unable to borrow the money it needs to pay its bills after July. Altogether, states need at least another $230 billion beyond their tax revenue in order to make it through the 2009 to 2011 fiscal years. But it is the years beyond 2011 that state lawmakers are most worried about—when the federal money runs out.

American jobless figures for May are in: 345,000 jobs chopped. The national unemployment rate has now reached the critical zone, and some analysts are wondering if round two of the banking crisis is on the way. The unemployment rate is now 9.4 percent, the highest in over 25 years.

On the heels of the World Health Organization declaring H1N1 swine flu officially a pandemic—the first in four decades—the UK government’s chief medical officer said “several million” Britons would become ill with the virus. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College, London, said the virus could cause twice or triple the 12,000 deaths that seasonal flu causes.