It appears reconciliation with Hezbollah is the aim of Lebanon’s ruling March 14 alliance as it forms a new government following the country’s parliamentary elections on June 7.

While many considered the Saudi- and Western-backed March 14 alliance’s win as a move away from radicalism in Lebanon, reality is that the Iran-sponsored Hezbollah terrorist group will retain its grip of the country, one way or another.

The ruling party knows this—which is why it is accommodating Hezbollah rather than standing up to it.

While Saad Hariri, leader of the ruling alliance, is resisting granting Hezbollah formal veto power, Stratfor reports that he and his Saudi patrons are “formulating a new working relationship with the Shiite militant group that protects and pays tribute to the ‘Resistance’” (June 16).

Stratfor went on,

In the wake of the election … Hezbollah tempered its demand for veto power in the cabinet. The final results ended up giving the March 14 alliance a 12-seat lead over the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition—a difference of one seat from the last parliament. [U]nless Hezbollah obtained security guarantees for its militant wing, it held a powerful lever against the March 14 coalition—a threat to paralyze Beirut as it did in May 2008 when Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora attempted to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications network. When the results were announced, Saad Hariri, the son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and leader of Lebanon’s Al Mustaqbal (Future) Movement, immediately set out to make peace with Hezbollah by congratulating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc leader Mohammed Raad.

In other words, fearing Hezbollah would take matters into its own hands, violently, Hariri has set out to appease the group, by giving it security guarantees. Hariri, says Stratfor, “wants to return to his father’s method of building bridges of confidence with Hezbollah.” Stratfor continued:

Instead of formally granting veto power and upholding the Doha Accord, Hariri has discussed with Hezbollah the security guarantees that he and his regional partners are willing to offer in order to maintain a good working relationship with the Shiite militant group. Such security guarantees would involve pledges to avoid any legislation that undermines Hezbollah’s authority or that threatens its militant arm. When congratulating Hezbollah leaders following the election, Hariri allegedly told them that the question of Hezbollah’s military arsenal will no longer be discussed in public. Hariri also instructed his media outlets to discuss Hezbollah in favorable terms and not as an enemy or threat.

As Joel Hilliker wrote in his column last week, Hezbollah actually had no intention of taking over the government of Lebanon. It was confident it could get what it wanted without having the responsibility of governing the country. The behavior of Hezbollah—and the ruling alliance—since the election corroborates that fact.

Being part of a cooperative opposition—or a “national unity” government—will likely make Hezbollah’s acceptance in the international community as a legitimate political force even smoother and quicker—certainly with less loss of face for the West.

Western officials have already met with Hezbollah representatives since the elections.

On Thursday, British Ambassador Frances Guy had a meeting with Hezbollah’s parliamentary leader, Mohammad Raad, the first time a senior British official has met with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“The talks covered the recent election and the situation in the region,” Hezbollah said in a statement.

“I believe the doors are open to further meetings,” Raad told Agence France-Presse.

The British Embassy confirmed the meeting covered the political situation in Lebanon as well as United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which stipulates the disarmament of Hezbollah.

A Foreign Office spokeswoman in London said Britain would make a “distinction between those members of Hezbollah who are legitimately involved in Lebanese politics and those who are involved in violence and support terrorism.”

Of course, such a distinction is pure fantasy—both the political and military arms of Hezbollah are intertwined, taking their orders from Iran. But it does make it easier for the West to appear as if it is not backing down.

Last Saturday, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana held talks with Hezbollah member of parliament Hussein Hajj Hassan during a visit to Beirut. “Lists of terrorist groups are not the same in every country,” Solana told a news conference, in reference to Hezbollah being considered a terrorist organization by some countries. “Hezbollah is a member of the Lebanese society and it is represented in the Lebanese parliament and it will bear responsibilities.”

Meanwhile, as we have written, Hezbollah’s popularity has not diminished in Lebanon. Though the March 14 alliance won the parliamentary vote due to Lebanon’s unique election law that allocates seats according to sectarian blocs, the Hezbollah-led opposition actually won the popular vote. More than 800,000 Lebanese voted for the Iran-backed opposition, as compared to about 600,000 who voted for the ruling party, according to Xinhua.

In all this, it must be remembered that the real power in Lebanon does not even lie in the parliament, but rather with the regional actors upon whom the Lebanese factions are dependent: Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. And of these, only one has a military force strong enough to enforce its will: Iran, through Hezbollah.

That is why the March 14 alliance is working with Hezbollah and promising security guarantees—that Hezbollah will not be called upon to disarm. And that means, at the end of the day, it will be Iran that determines the immediate future of Lebanon.

Hezbollah will be happy to play nice as long as it gets what it wants—but if that situation changes, we can be sure Iran won’t hesitate to direct another Hezbollah show of force in the tradition of its partial coup last year, when it showed it could—should it wish—overrun Beirut in a matter of a few short hours.

Iran, as the prophesied king of the south, is not about to let its powerful proxy Hezbollah lose its edge.