Middle East

If you can’t beat them, join them. That was the gist of British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s announcement on Monday that “second tier” Taliban leaders could be reintegrated into the Afghan government if they renounce violence. U.S. and British officials believe the recent operation that has pushed the Taliban back in a vital part of the lawless Helmland province in southern Afghanistan has created the right conditions to negotiate with “second tier” Taliban leaders. Allowing the Taliban to join the Afghan government would, however, be a victory for the terrorists and would return Afghanistan to a situation similar to what existed before the war started. In July, 20 British soldiers were killed by Taliban fighters.

In Iraq, a rift is emerging between U.S. and Iraqi forces in the wake of the retreat of U.S. troops from cities and townships. Last week, an American convoy was attacked by insurgents, and U.S. soldiers returned fire and pursued their AK-47-armed attackers, killing three Iraqis. When a senior Iraqi Army commander arrived on the scene, he charged the American troops with firing indiscriminately at civilians, and ordered them to be taken into custody. While the confrontation was defused and the Iraqi authorities backed down, the incident demonstrates both the dwindling authority the U.S. has in Iraq and the emerging hostility toward America among Iraqis. The Iraqi commander later referred to the actions the U.S. troops took in self-defense as a “crime.” Such a situation makes it harder for U.S. soldiers under attack to defend themselves without fear of repercussions from Iraqi security forces. As tensions rise between Iraq and the U.S., watch for Iran to draw Iraq closer into its sphere of influence.

President Barack Obama sent three of his most senior foreign-policy officials—Defense Chief Robert Gates, special envoy George Mitchell and National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones—to the Middle East this week in an attempt to kick-start the peace process. U.S. diplomats visited Israel, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and the Palestinians. U.S. efforts largely focused on pressuring Israel over settlements, and on the Iranian threat. Gates said that President Obama is giving Iran until September to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. On Sunday, on nbc’s Meet the Press, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave this message to Iran: “[I]f you’re pursuing nuclear weapons for the purpose of intimidating, of projecting your power, we’re not going to let that happen.” Such tough rhetoric against Iran is undermined by President Obama’s June 4 Cairo speech in which he virtually gave Iran the go-ahead for its nuclear program, saying: “No single nation should pick and choose which nation holds nuclear weapons.” Hence, neither Iran nor Israel is likely to take U.S. threats against Iran seriously.

Europe

A bomb killed two policemen in the Spanish island of Majorca on Thursday in what Spanish authorities believe is the second attack in two days by the Basque separatist group eta. After the explosion, the island was locked down; no planes or boats were allowed to land on the island. On Wednesday, a powerful car bomb wounded 60, including six children, as it exploded outside a police barracks in Burgos in northern Spain. Expect attacks like these to draw a crackdown from the EU.

Iceland took the first formal step along the road to EU membership on Monday: EU foreign ministers asked the European Commission to examine Iceland’s legal preparedness to begin membership negotiations. Iceland is a strategic location for controlling the Atlantic. Watch for the European Union to try to bring it under its control.

The EU is expanding its anti-piracy mission in the western Indian Ocean. The EU anti-piracy force’s operation commander announced July 23 that the force would be shifting surveillance aircraft to the Kenyan port city of Mombasa. Though the small task force will only have a limited effect, it is part of an important gain in international standing for the EU military. It is a continuation of the first-ever naval anti-piracy mission for the EU, which has a unified EU military identity separate from nato. Germany especially welcomed the opportunity to give its navy experience in a robust mission and reform its image into that of a benign military power. The EU—led by Germany, which has the most bilateral African investment treaties of any nation in Europe—is keen on using African energy resources to decrease its dependency on Russia. The EU has aggressively pursued security and corporate partnerships with Africa, and currently Europe is Africa’s greatest source of aid. Now it is securing another foothold in an important business hub in eastern Africa. For more on the German-led EU’s involvement and strategy in Africa, read our article, “Germany’s Plan to Control Africa.”

A former speechwriter for Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt accused the EU of creating a “propaganda machine” this week. “The EU, at the taxpayers’ expense, actively advocates more European integration and prevents free debate on the future of Europe, extending the limits of what we normally regard as communication,” wrote Maria Rankka in a report published by the think-tank Timbro, which she runs. The report showed how the EU spends far more than the official €213 million communications budget on projects such as EU-sponsored radio stations and websites. She pointed out, for example, that the EU gives €10.8 million a year to popular tv channel Euronews, and a €1 million grant to journalist-training group European Journalism Center, bringing the impartiality of both into question. The EU also gives money to pro-Europe non-governmental organizations. Brussels even bribes schools to promote the EU. To benefit from a €63-million-a-year free-milk scheme, schools must display a tabloid-size poster that shows the EU flag and states that EU money paid for the milk. The EU does a lot to try to sell itself to the public. One can’t help but recall the effective use of propaganda by the Nazi Party before World War ii. For more information on this subject, see our article “The EU, Propaganda and Broadband.”

Asia

India launched its first nuclear submarine Sunday, becoming one of six nations to have built one. Capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the new submarine is called Arihant, meaning “destroyer of enemies” in Hindi. India has previously relied upon submarines rented from Russia. Watch for the Asian nations to continue to increase their military power.

Russia will begin exploring for oil in the Gulf of Mexico after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin signed four contracts for exploration rights with Cuba on Wednesday. Cuba claims there are 20 billion barrels of oil off its coasts, but the U.S. puts the figure at 5 billion. Watch for Russia’s hunger for resources to drive it to increase its involvement in Latin America and other places around the world. Surely Russia recognizes that this is a provocative move against America, but it is betting—surely correctly—that the U.S. is too preoccupied and enfeebled to put up any fuss. For more, see our article “Russia Infiltrates Latin America.”

Patriarch Metropolitan Kirill arrived in Ukraine on Monday for a 10-day visit, his first trip outside of Russia since he became patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Ukraine’s religious community is split into two main groups: the Kiev-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Moscow-controlled Church of Eastern Orthodoxy in Ukraine. Stratfor reports that “Kirill’s visit is intended to cement Moscow’s control over Orthodoxy in Ukraine and further entrench Kiev in the Kremlin’s sphere of influence” (July 27). Watch for both Moscow and the Vatican to use religion to further their reach.

Africa/Latin America

The U.S. State Department revoked the visas of four Honduran officials on July 29, confirming U.S. support for the return of the ousted Manuel Zelaya. Other officials of the interim government may also lose their visas. In a stroke of irony, Nicaraguan politicians have announced that they don’t want the exiled president in Nicaragua either. “We certainly don’t want Zelaya around here anymore,” said Francisco Aguirre, a lawmaker with the Liberal Constitutional Party. “He represents too much of a risk of an armed conflict with Honduras, and he’s doing our economy a lot of harm.” The border curfews between Nicaragua and Honduras have cost about $3 million per day in trade while Zelaya makes his symbolic stand on the border of Honduras rather than face prosecution at home.

Venturing outside the oil and weapons industries, the Venezuelan government has signed a $7.5 billion contract with a Chinese firm to construct 468 kilometers of railway, connecting four states. This is the largest Venezuelan/Chinese contract to date outside of the oil industry. Venezuelan officials also signed a new accord with Russia for $4 billion covering energy, military and agricultural expenditures. President Chávez continues to prepare his country for an economy without U.S. participation.

Nigeria exploded in violence with between 300 and 500 dead. After five days of clashes between an Islamic sect called Boko Haram—meaning “Western education is a sin”—and the Nigerian government, the leader of the sect, Mohammed Yusuf, was captured, then killed while in police custody. Boko Haram wanted to establish sharia law in Nigeria and had recently attacked police stations in its attempt to gain support. With both its leader and its top deputy now dead, the group will be unlikely to mount any sort of reprisal, but Nigeria will be left even more destabilized than it normally is.

Anglo-America

On Thursday, Harvard professor Henry Gates Jr. and the police officer who arrested him joined President Obama at the White House for a beer. Gates, who is black, and Sgt. James Crowley, who is white, clashed when Crowley responded to a reported break-in and took Gates into custody on a disorderly conduct charge for verbally lashing out at police officers. President Obama jumped into the fray in a press conference by saying the Cambridge Police “acted stupidly.” Gates accused Crowley of racial profiling. Watch for racial tensions to increase in advance of prophesied racial violence in American cities.

President Obama’s health-care reform bill is losing support among Americans, a Wall Street Journal/nbc News weekend poll found. Americans were evenly split in mid-June, but since costs and quality of care have been raised as issues, those who think the health plan is a good idea have dropped to 35 percent and those who called it a bad idea have risen to 42 percent.

The bbc reported this week that hundreds of Britons turned out and lined the streets for the funeral of one of Britain’s two last World War i veterans. Henry Allingham, who served in the Royal Naval Air Service and the Royal Air Force, was the world’s oldest man when he died two weeks ago at 113 years old. Harry Patch, Britain’s last World War i veteran, died a week later and will be buried next Thursday.