Rumors are circulating that the Russians are about to blow something up. Whether that’s literal or figurative, or both, those in the know aren’t saying.

One thing is certain: The Kremlin is extremely active. Last weekend, it marked the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Georgia by massing troops along the Georgian border, even exchanging mortar fire. Top military brass are darting in and out of the region. On Tuesday, tension between Russia and Ukraine elevated when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev blasted Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko as the root cause of Moscow’s souring relations with Kiev. Elsewhere, Russian subs were recently spotted patrolling America’s eastern seaboard, while Kremlin diplomats are traveling the globe deepening connections with like-minded friends.

“[The Russians] have all but stated that war is imminent,” wrote Stratfor last week. Moscow has a “well-earned reputation for being far more circumspect than this in the shell game that is international relations. It is almost as if all of this is simply noise designed to keep the Americans off balance while something else, something no one is watching, is quietly put into play” (August 6; emphasis mine).

Something is afoot, concluded Stratfor, “and if it is not a war, it is something big enough that a war would seem to make a good distraction. Now that bears some watching.”

Indeed it does.

Here at the Trumpet, the uptick in activity in Moscow has caused us to focus more attention on another nation of critical importance: Germany.

Not long after Russia invaded the tiny nation of Georgia August last year, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote, “Russia’s attack on Georgia … marks the beginning of a dangerous new era in history.” (With whispers of another war circulating, now would be a good time to review that article.)

One of the most significant truths revealed by that event was the good health of the Russian-German relationship.

Initially, Germany’s reaction to Russia’s war-mongering seemed confusing and strange. As the war unfolded and the world reacted, it became increasingly apparent that Berlin was not nearly as upset with Moscow as much of the rest of the international community was. That reaction didn’t make sense: The Russian Army was conducting a major military strike in Europe’s periphery, in a region central to the supply and transport of German and European energy, and Germany hardly raised an eyebrow.

Explaining this reaction, Mr. Flurry wrote:

I believe Germany may well have been complicit in Russia’s plan to attack Georgia! If Russia formed an agreement with Germany over the Georgia situation, then Russia would know the only possible other nation it would have to be concerned about is the U.S. And Russia knew that America was too weak to do anything about it!

One of the most significant lessons we could glean from Russia’s invasion of Georgia is that, by all appearances, the Kremlin will not conduct military or geopolitical campaigns of major significance without first consulting Berlin. If, as the evidence suggests, Russia consulted Germany before it attacked Georgia the first time, isn’t it logical the Kremlin would consult Germany should it contemplate such action again?

Germany and Russia fear each other. Geographically, they’re separated by wide open, easily accessible plains, each vulnerable to the other. Economically, Germany (and the rest of Europe) depends on Russian energy, while Russia depends on trade and commerce with Germany and other European states. Geopolitically, Berlin is the undisputed lead power in the European Union, and has a direct and open line to the White House, Moscow’s most significant competitor. Russia, meanwhile, has the ear of the Chinese, dominates the Caucasus and Central Asia, and has influence in Tehran.

The equation is relatively simple. Because Moscow and Berlin each wields decisive influence vis-à-vis the other, each is left with a choice: Respect the other as a friend, or compete as an enemy. For now, Germany and Russia exist as friends, a reality evidenced last summer when, it appears, the Kremlin disclosed its plans to invade Georgia to Germany before it actually carried them out.

This is why at this moment, with something afoot in Russia, it is important we direct our attention toward Germany!

Watch carefully, for instance, the meeting this Friday in Sochi, Russia, between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. This meeting, the second in as many months, is occurring against a backdrop not only of increased activity by the Kremlin, but also impending national elections in Germany. One of the topics of discussion will be Russia’s bid, via the Austrian/Canadian company Magna, to bail out Opel, the German subsidiary of General Motors. In a sign of Berlin’s regard for Moscow (not to mention the Teutonic connections with the Austrian arm of Magna), Ms. Merkel promised this week to intervene personally to ensure Magna gets Opel, rather than the Belgium-based company also interested in bailing out Opel.

Although Germany and Russia have apparently struck some sort of agreement, with each choosing for now to treat the other with respect, the fundamental fear each has of the other has not been diminished. Germany, together with the rest of Europe, is anxious about the Kremlin’s actions and ambitions. And the more volatile and pushy Russia grows, the more Germany and other European nations will believe they must develop the political, economic and military means to counter the Russian threat.

“What Russia is doing will be the spark to bring the heads of nations in Europe together with the Vatican to form a ‘United Nations of Europe,’” wrote Herbert W. Armstrong. “The politicians cannot do this by themselves. Only with the collaboration of the pope can they do it” (co-worker letter, Jan. 23, 1980). Few things unite a nation or group of nations more than a mutual external threat. And there’s been no better glue throughout history to unite Europe than its traditional Roman Catholic ideology!

Might not Russia’s belligerence trigger a fear among Europeans that will accelerate the emergence of Europe as a power capable of confronting Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin? And isn’t it historically inevitable that Berlin will turn to Rome for the spiritual element that is greatly needed to weld the EU’s fractious combine of 27 nations together in a unity that can counter the united socialist power of Vladimir Putin’s Russian autocracy?

The more geopolitical power and influence Russia gains, and the more Europe’s leaders feel threatened by the Kremlin’s ambitions, the greater the urgency will become to develop a strong Europe capable of countering the threat to the east. More specifically, Russian ambition will drive Europeans to seek a strong, robust leader—empowered by their historic “Holy” Roman ideology—to lead them against such external forces as posed by Russian strongman Vladimir Putin.

This, as Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has warned, is why we must watch German national elections scheduled for September 28 very closely.