What’s Ahead for Cuba?
Seventy-five-year-old Communist Fidel Castro has proved to be one of the world’s most durable despots.
Since he seized control of the Caribbean island of Cuba on January 1, 1959, Castro’s tenure has outlasted that of nine United States presidents, an invasion attempt and a long campaign of assassination plots. At the peak of the Cold War, he installed a communist government only 90 miles away from the world’s most capitalistic nation. In an effort to outflank the U.S., he allied himself with the Soviet Union by backing Communist revolutionaries all over Latin America.
As dictator of a small island nation with only a minor role in the global economy, Castro has had a significant impact on world politics. But Castro has a problem: He is gradually losing his iron-fisted grip on Cuba. His strength is ebbing, mentally and physically, and there are undisclosed reports he recently suffered a stroke. After fainting during a speech in June 2001, Castro reaffirmed that his successor in power would be his 70-year-old brother, Raul, who is Cuba’s first vice president, minister of defense and second secretary of the Cuban Communist Party.
How Castro’s demise would change the island regime that has been a thorn in the U.S.’s side for decades is something to consider. “They are already on the cusp of something very new in Cuba,” said Wayne Smith, an analyst with the Center for International Policy in Washington and former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana (Austin American Statesman, Aug. 12, 2001).
There is much speculation about what could happen following Castro’s death or disablement.
The need for stabilizing leadership as Cuba seeks to find its role in the emerging world order is hardly helped by Raul Castro’s age. He is but five years younger than the ailing Fidel. The stage is set for a power struggle in Cuba. This could cause competing world powers to seize the initiative by promoting factions which they can then exploit for their own ends. Major powers will be quite willing to supply aid, arms and protection to effect a takeover of this struggling island nation. China and the EU are prime contenders, with the EU, by virtue of religion and cultural connections, having the edge.
As the Trumpet has reported in previous issues, the nations of Latin America—including Cuba—more and more are becoming politically, economically and religiously tied to Europe. Once Cuba’s current dictatorship ends, will the island nation eventually reform politically and embrace European-style capitalism? Further, will it forsake its communistic, atheist ideals and revert back to its Catholic religious roots?
Latin America’s Prophetic Future
In order to accurately predict what’s ahead for Cuba, one must first understand the identity of today’s modern nations in that “sure word of prophecy,” the Holy Bible.
Approximately one third of the Bible is prophecy. Ten percent or more of those prophecies have already been fulfilled—as proved by history, archaeology and science. The other prophecies—nearly 90 percent of the total—are right now in the process of being fulfilled! These prophecies apply to our time, during the last hour of this age of human misrule and beyond.
As surprising as it may seem, the major nations featured in today’s world news are identified in the Bible. The English-speaking peoples of North America—and the Spanish-speaking peoples of Latin America, including Cuba—are no exception. (If you have not proved the identity of the modern nations of Israel, request a free copy of the booklet The United States and Britain in Prophecy.)
History, ethnology and archaeology all prove that the English-speaking peoples of the Western world are the descendants of the “lost” ten tribes of Israel.
The Spanish-speaking peoples of Spain and Latin America have their ethnic roots in the family of Japheth, son of Noah, through his son Tiras. They are generally referred to as Tarshish in the Bible (Gen. 10:4). The Spanish galleons were famous in trade and war during the heights of Spanish trade and colonial power. The Prophet Isaiah refers to “the ships of Tarshish” (Isa. 23:1) involved in a great trading empire extant at the end of this age.
For more than 40 years, the U.S. has been particularly concerned about the Spanish-speaking nation of Cuba—the “enemy in our backyard”—because Castro’s Communist regime has afforded Russia a toehold in the Western Hemisphere. But nowhere does prophecy indicate that Russia will attack or conquer America! Rather, the Bible clearly shows that it will be a European superpower that will invade the U.S.
Isaiah 23:3 describes the coming European superpower as a “mart of nations.” This means that its presence will be felt throughout the world’s economy. Notice the prophetic role the Latin peoples will play during that time, shown in Ezekiel 27:12: “Tarshish was thy [Europe’s] merchant by reason of the multitude of all kind of riches; with silver, iron, tin, and lead, they traded in thy fairs [markets].”
The rapidly growing European superpower will need a steady supply of the raw materials and cheap labor that Latin America can provide in abundance. The Bible describes Latin America (and Spain)—“Tarshish”—as a partner in trade with this giant European combine.
Already, the European Union is becoming a formidable force on the world scene, including significantly in Latin America. As we reported in the May 2001 issue of this magazine, “One of the prime catalysts for the drive to form a free trade zone between North and South America is the threat posed to U.S. markets by increasingly aggressive penetration of Latin America trade by the EU. Cuba thus has a strategic part to play in this process. The reason is that, following along hard on the heels of trade, the EU is subliminally worming its way into the religious, political, defense and security systems of those countries with which it deals. This includes such penetration of Latin America via the EU’s Mercosur trade agreements with much of Central and South America and Mexico.
“Cuba is, for all intents and purposes, a stepping-stone to the U.S., just as Cyprus is to the Middle East. The EU is courting both these island nations, in their separate hemispheres, for very similar purposes. The purposes have to do with a wider agenda than trade.”
Economic Ties
Cubans have struggled economically for some time. The primary reason is the loss of Russian capital investment and financial aid following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Another reason is poor leadership (though the Castro regime would be loath to admit it), as well as four decades of U.S. trade sanctions against Cuba. Also, the influx of U.S. dollars from Cuban exiles in Miami—many of whom worked in Miami hotels and tourism-related industries and who have lost their jobs in the U.S. economic recession—has slowed.
The writing is on the wall: Cuba must collaborate with the rising EU superpower, or it is destined to decay economically.
Already, over the last decade, EU-Latin American trade has doubled—making Latin America the EU’s second-largest trading partner. EU exports totaled $51 billion, while its imports from Latin America amounted to nearly $46 billion (AP Worldstream, May 14). And the Cuban government is hungry for a larger slice of the economic pie.
For a number of years, firms from EU nations—notably Germany, France, Italy and Spain—have been actively investing in Cuba. According to The Week in Germany of May 14, 1999, “German makers of machine tools and factory equipment, chemical and pharmaceuticals, and environmental technology see considerable potential in Cuba” (emphasis mine throughout).
In March of this year, the EU Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its position on Cuba, in effect since 1996, which states the EU will tie its cooperation with Havana to reforms within the Castro regime.
In May, 33 leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean, including President Castro, met at a summit in Madrid with EU counterparts to discuss more aid, free trade agreements and closer political and security ties.
Perhaps the most significant of recent events in Cuba is the fact that the island nation is now the first Latin American nation where the euro is widely accepted. On June 1, hotels, restaurants, cigar shops and bars in the top Cuban holiday resort of Varadero began accepting euros in an attempt to attract more European tourists. Tollbooths on the highway linking Havana with Varadero now accept euros also. The Varadero resort generates about a third of Cuba’s estimated $2 billion in annual tourism income.
Cuban officials estimate more than 55 percent of tourists visiting the island annually come from EU nations. Cuba, long famous for its beaches and laid-back island atmosphere, is of great interest to the European travel industry. The Cuban government announced that it would begin accepting the euro as an experiment that could be extended to other resorts nationwide by next year. Since 1993, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba had been using the U.S. dollar almost exclusively as its second staple currency to buy imports and meet other international obligations.
As Communist Cuba struggles to stay afloat economically, the EU is becoming an increasingly attractive alternative to linkage with Cuba’s former mentor, Russia.
Religious Ties
Amid the economic instability in Latin America, the revival of religion in Cuba is bringing that country a semblance of social stability, thus creating the climate for an upsurge in trade with global markets. Sensing the need to find a replacement for his Soviet benefactor, in the early 1990s Castro began easing formal restrictions on religious worship, and courting the Vatican, with the intent of gaining favor with EU investors.
In 1992, the Cuban government declared itself to be secular. Officially atheist since 1962, Cubans have since began a religious revival. Castro visited the pope at the Vatican in November 1996. As a gesture of goodwill to the Vatican, Castro reintroduced the Christmas holiday on December 25, 1997. Roman Catholic parishes in Havana were packed with worshippers on that day. Church bells rang out in celebration all over Cuba.
When Pope John Paul ii visited Cuba in 1998, many Cubans saw it as the beginning of a new era, with greater prominence for the Roman Catholic Church and new economic, political and social reforms. The pope himself compared the trip to his 1979 visit to Poland, which helped spark the Solidarity movement that brought down communism in that Eastern European country.
One Cuban religious leader, Victor Estrada, said the pope’s visit helped increase religious tolerance. “Before the pope’s visit, there were many people in the Communist Party who refused to recognize the role of religion in Cuba,” he said. “They sort of woke up a little after the pope’s visit and recognized that religion is a big part of Cuban culture” (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jan. 27).
Just weeks before the pope’s arrival, officials began allowing public religious processions.
More than 300 mission houses (informal churches) have appeared across the country since the pope’s landmark visit, according to Catholic Church figures. A month before the visit, there were 560 mission houses—now, 41/2 years later, there are about 870.
In addition to the increase in churchgoers, there has been an increased tolerance for Catholic publications by the same government that is known for its strict censorship. Just before the papal visit, a number of Catholic newspapers emerged from underground and are now widely circulated in the religious community. The church has also lobbied for a radio station.
Referring to the pope’s visit, the Trumpet wrote in a February 1998 article, “Thus the first link in the chain that will inevitably bind Havana to Rome and thence to the European Union is forged. The way is open for the key diplomat of the EU, Pope John Paul ii himself, to influence the powerful EU to invest in Cuba, resurrect its economy, and give to the Union major influence in the most strategic location that it could ever hope for, just a short haul from the straits of Florida, a proverbial stone’s throw from the North American mainland.”
Watch Cuba!
As Castro’s star fades, watch for continuing initiatives from Vatican City to consolidate the church’s power in Cuba through winning the loyalty of its Cuban parishioners back to their Catholic religious roots. The Trumpet’s predictions from over four years ago are all the more ripe for fulfillment today. Europe is homing in on its prey. Watch as it secures its place in Cuba, binding the island nation to the coming European superpower—the unseen enemy on the United States’ doorstep!
