Kaliningrad Tug-of-War

Russia and the European Union maintain a tenuous friendship, but history has made them skeptical of one another.

Russia’s looming size, along with its massive natural resources—particularly oil, natural gas and nuclear capability—makes it a giant that the European Union hopes will stay friendly. The EU—continually increasing in economic and political weight and momentum, and about to erupt in size as it looks to absorb up to 10 new member nations in 2004—is also an impressive neighbor that would be intimidating if upset.

Russian-EU relations have developed steadily in the past year. The EU is the largest provider of economic and technical assistance to Russia, and has its sights set on Russian oil and natural gas; the EU is also Russia’s largest trade partner.

But there is one thorn embedded in the Russian-EU relationship that has to this point proved intractable—the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

Sandwiched between aspiring EU members Poland and Lithuania, bordering the Baltic Sea and not at all physically attached to the rest of Russia, Kaliningrad is a vulnerable and contentious piece of real estate as the EU looks to enlarge its borders in shortly over a year’s time.

At first glance, it may not seem like much to fight for. After World War ii, the region of Kaliningrad was a closed military base for the Soviet Union. Since the collapse of the ussr, the Russian government reduced economic support to the region, and Kaliningrad has become increasingly underdeveloped economically and socially. The 1 million-strong population is rife with drug dealing, money laundering and organized crime, not to mention the highest rate of hiv infection in Europe. But Kaliningrad’s history and the political leverage it provides give it greater significance.

Kaliningraders presently enjoy easy travel to and from the Russian mainland with few restrictions. But under the EU Schengen agreement, they will be required to obtain visas to travel by ground to Poland and Lithuania—and through these countries to reach Russia—once those countries join the EU. Afraid that the tiny enclave will be cut off and isolated from the rest of the country, Russia has strongly opposed the intended travel restrictions and has proposed a visa-free corridor running from Kaliningrad to the Russian mainland instead.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has lobbied European leaders hard on this issue, so far to no avail. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has said, “Kaliningrad should become a bridge to Europe, not a dead-end” (www.EUbusiness.com, March 6), and called for neighboring countries to help Kaliningrad’s economic development.

The EU, to this point, has not been willing to bend the Schengen rules, which regulate border controls. Tense over the currently hot topic of illegal immigration, which is featuring in several of this year’s European elections, the EU is torn between its domestic concerns (and eastward expansion) and maintaining friendly relations with its massive eastern neighbor.

Will the thorny issue of Kaliningrad serve to draw the EU and Russia closer together or drive them further apart? Watch upcoming EU-Russia relations to find out who will win this tug-of-war.