Germany is awake

Under the new conservative coalition that has come to power following the general election, Germany will chart its own course more than ever, said Stratfor in a September 29 article titled “The Return of Germany.”

The government, comprised of the Christian Democratic Union and the Free Democratic Party, will formulate a foreign policy more independent of both the United States and Russia, while at the same time improving its relations with both countries, according to Stratfor.

One major interest that is at the forefront of German considerations is energy, and Germany’s reliance on Russia. Russia controls much of the oil and gas that Germany’s industrial base needs to keep operating. Stratfor writes:

Left to its own devices, Germany is naturally the dominant power of continental Europe: It has the population, location, capital, workforce and economy. Germany’s conservatives are well aware of this. In fact, one of the policies of the new government will be, at a minimum, to extend the life of the country’s nuclear power plants, and potentially to start building some new ones. Each new reactor translates directly into a reduction in oil and natural gas that Germany would need from Russia. And this not only would allow Germany to loosen Russia’s grip on its energy supplies, but perhaps even become the conduit of Russian gas to other European states itself. The planned Nordstream natural gas line, which is meant to carry Russian gas under the Baltic directly to Germany, then would no longer be an instrument of Russian power over Germany, but a means by which Berlin could distribute energy to its neighbors and earn revenue from the transit fees.

What is at issue in Germany’s changing relationship with both Russia and America, says Stratfor, is this:

Germany is awake. It is thinking for itself. It has its own policy preferences, its own energy preferences and its own security preferences. It already is showing signs of developing autonomy in foreign policy and energy matters, and it is very likely only a matter of time before it starts developing autonomy in security matters.This isn’t your father’s (or even your grandfather’s) Germany. This is your great-grandfather’s Germany.