The ongoing Shiite insurgency in Yemen is intensifying, thanks largely to Iran’s support of Shiite al-Houthi rebels who have been battling the Yemeni military for more than two months in the latest round of fighting.

Iran has sent Hezbollah fighters into Yemen to assist the al-Houthis. Stratfor reports that Hezbollah in Lebanon has already held four mourning councils and two burials for its fallen fighters in Yemen.

Hezbollah claims it shot down two Yemeni military aircraft earlier this month with Iranian-manufactured Misagh-1 man-portable air defense systems (manpads)—shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles. Yemeni military commanders deny this, blaming the crashes on mechanical failure.

If it is true that Hezbollah does have and is using such missiles, it could drastically change the battlefield in Yemen. “Furthermore,” says Stratfor, “it would raise a broader concern about where else Hezbollah (or more accurately, Iran) might feel compelled to deploy these weapons systems and where else loose stocks could be floating around the region, particularly in hot spots like Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon” (October 7). Stratfor reports that “Hezbollah is exactly the sort of non-state entity that may well have considerable stockpiles of manpads.”

The Yemeni government is alarmed at the strength of the Shiite insurgency, which has continued on and off since 2004. “The Yemeni troops on the ground are growing demoralized with every insurgent ambush and are struggling with the basic counterinsurgency challenge of holding cleared territory” (ibid.).

The reason for the intensity this time around is Iran’s support of the rebels. The Iranians are seeking to make a statement about their ability to wreak havoc in Arab states should they be provoked, according to Stratfor. Countries such as Saudi Arabia are concerned.

This Iranian push and the reaction of some Arab countries is a precursor to a future split indicated in end-time prophecy between those Muslim nations that will ally with Iran and those that will ally with a European power.