How voting changes under Lisbon will change the balance of power in EU
To understand how the Lisbon Treaty will alter the balance of power in the European Union, says Stratfor, all we need to do is look at the new voting system that the treaty will introduce.
The Council of the European Union, the main decision-making body of the EU, makes decisions on legislation using a system of qualified majority voting (qmv). A comparison of how the qmv will operate under Lisbon, as compared to the current Nice Treaty, shows that the balance of power will shift heavily in favor of Germany, France and Italy—with Germany being the country that will receive the greatest increase in percentage of votes.
Stratfor explains (October 16; emphasis ours):
Under the Nice Treaty, each country received a vote share loosely based on population, but that overrepresented small and medium EU member states. To pass a motion, the threshold stood at 74 percent of total votes, which also had to represent 62 percent of the EU population (although that was invariably always the case due to the high threshold for percent of votes) and simple majority of actual member states (e.g., 14 out of 27).
The Lisbon Treaty amends this procedure by basing member-state voting share purely on population, ending privileged voting share for small and medium member states. This means Germany’s voting share has gone from 8.4 percent under Nice to 16.4 percent under Lisbon. Lisbon also significantly lowers the threshold for a proposal to pass, setting it at 65 percent of total population, though it increases the number of member states that must support a measure (15 out of 27, or as the treaty states, 55 percent of member states in case of further enlargement). The actual number of countries needed to pass a proposal was raised by one, and to block a proposal it is now necessary to have a minimum of four member states (that must comprise more than 35 percent of the EU population). This is meant to force large member states to find allies among the small member states if they want to block legislation. The new rules still greatly favor states that prefer a strong European Union, especially in regard to creating blocking minorities. Holding a blocking minority is an important negotiating strategy in the European Union because it forces member states favoring a given proposal to accommodate the blocking member states. Whereas the coalition of states favoring a strong European Union led by France and Germany easily reaches the 35 percent threshold required to block legislation (43.6), the combined numbers of both the euroskeptics and states wary of France and Germany barely reaches that number (around 36 percent for the combined populations of the 14 states). This means that these states will have to exercise perfect discipline and not let a single member stray if they are to block proposals. Moreover, the Lisbon Treaty greatly enhances voting powers of the pro-strong EU bloc led by France and Germany when it comes to passing legislation. Under the Nice qmv, Germany, France and their allies had only a 29.9 percent share of the vote total, whereas under Lisbon they have 43.6 percent. The bloc of countries likely to ally with Germany and France has also gone up, giving the two blocs 64.3 percent of the vote, with 65 percent being necessary to pass legislation under Lisbon. Under Nice, this coalition had far less voting power both because it held a 55.8 percent share of total vote and because the threshold to pass proposals was higher at 74 percent. … [I]f Berlin and Paris manage to find a way to stay on the same page, Lisbon gives them the tools to lead Europe.
Could it be just coincidence that the voting rules under Lisbon most greatly favor the key country behind the creation of that treaty?
