WorldWatch
Europe
Europe has ratified the Lisbon Treaty. On October 2, the Irish public voted for the second time in a referendum on the treaty. Under pressure from the European Union, 67 percent voted for, and 33 percent against. On October 10, Polish President Lech Kaczynski signed the treaty. Czech President Vaclav Klaus held out against Lisbon’s ratification for a while, but finally gave in; having secured an opt-out for the Czech Republic from the EU human rights charter, Klaus went ahead and signed the treaty into law. On November 3, ratification was complete. The Lisbon Treaty will help the EU make much faster decisions, and make it more difficult for individual nations to hold up its progress. With the treaty signed, watch for Europe’s growth in power to accelerate.
Now all eyes are turning to the two powerful positions the treaty creates: the EU president and EU foreign minister. The job description for the EU president is largely unwritten, meaning that the job will be shaped by the personality appointed to perform it. Filled by the right individuals, these positions could greatly increase the EU’s global clout.
Angela Merkel was sworn in for a second term as Germany’s chancellor on October 28. Her Christian Democratic Party (cdu) won the national elections in Germany on September 27 amid exceptionally low turnout. Her coalition partners are the cdu’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the Free Democrats. Even before Merkel was sworn in, however, serious disagreements had arisen. “Never before has a new government torn into their own coalition agreement to such a degree before it was even signed,” wrote Germany’s Die Tageszeitung. This begs the question: How long can this coalition last?
The election also brought about the promotion of the rising star in German politics, Baron Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, who is Germany’s new defense minister. Guttenberg recently surpassed Chancellor Merkel as the most popular politician in Germany. Hailing from the entrenched Bavarian-Frankish, Catholic aristocracy, Guttenberg was a bright young leader during the long reign of Edmund Stoiber as Bavaria’s prime minister. Already Guttenberg—an ex-soldier—is popular with the military. He is the first German politician to have referred to the Afghanistan campaign as a war.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be facing serious trouble. On October 7, Italy’s constitutional court ruled that a law passed in 2008 granting the prime minister immunity from persecution was invalid. Now he faces three court cases against him—one being a serious allegation of corruption. Berlusconi is losing popularity due to numerous sex scandals. The Vatican—the real powerbroker in Italy—has also indicated that it is not happy with his antics. Without Vatican support, Berlusconi will soon be gone.
Sweden and Finland agreed November 5 to allow a pipeline to be constructed under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Denmark agreed almost three weeks earlier. The long-awaited project should finally get off the ground early in 2010. This is an important project for Germany—and bad news for Eastern Europe. Russia has already used gas as a weapon against Eastern Europe. Once the Baltic pipeline is complete, Russia will be able to stop gas deliveries to individual Eastern European countries while only minimally affecting Germany, France and the other downstream Western European states. The Nord Stream pipeline will give Germany similar energy leverage over much of Western Europe. It is German, not Russian, ambitions that Western European nations should fear most.
Mideast
Iran agreed to a multinational nuclear deal October 1 whereby its stockpile of enriched uranium would be sent out of the country temporarily, but then it backpedaled. Although Tehran has not rejected the deal outright, it appears to be buying time for its nuclear program yet again.
Iran has smuggled rockets with a range of 37 miles to Hamas, Israel’s head of military intelligence says. Security sources say Hezbollah has the same missiles in southern Lebanon. In early November, the Israeli Navy discovered hundreds of tons of arms on a ship near Cyprus, en route from Iran to Hezbollah. A shipment of Iranian armaments was also intercepted in October in the Gulf of Suez en route to either Syria or Hezbollah.
The New York Post reported October 12 that Iran is conducting an all-out election bid to determine the future of Iraq in the lead-up to its scheduled January 15 general election. It appears former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jafaari is Iran’s candidate for prime minister. Among other moves, Iran has been pouring huge amounts of money into Iraq, using front companies, and pressuring Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani to endorse the pro-Iranian Iraqi National Alliance bloc.
Two government buildings in Iraq were struck on October 25 by vehicle bombs, killing 153 people. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the bombings, though it evidently had the support of local Sunnis. Through attacks such as these, the Sunnis are reminding America of what could go wrong in Iraq as the U.S. draws down its troops in that country. The Sunnis know that in the absence of the Americans, they will be subject to Iranian domination.
Lebanon’s unity government convened for the first time November 10, one day after the majority U.S.-backed bloc and its rivals in the Syria- and Iran-backed minority coalition finally agreed on a new power-sharing cabinet. Lebanon had been without a government since the June parliamentary elections. Hezbollah was given key positions in the new government and rigged the makeup of the cabinet to be in its favor, with the ruling coalition not having a big enough majority to make large decisions on its own. Hezbollah also pushed for control of Lebanon’s telecommunications system. “Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former prime minister and leader of the ruling coalition, initially balked at Hezbollah’s terms, but eventually had no choice but to give in,” Time wrote November 11.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai became the de facto winner of the runoff election slated for November 7 after presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah decided to boycott it. Abdullah dropped out of the race in the face of likely defeat, given that Karzai had a slight lead in the polls and that the Independent Election Commission is stacked with Karzai supporters. The U.S. is now forced to rebrand Karzai as a credible U.S. partner despite blatant election fraud.
Turkey scrapped a joint military drill planned for October with Israel, the U.S., Italy and nato because of its newfound unwillingness to cooperate with the Jewish state. The move revived fears that Israel is losing its most valuable ally in the region.
The United Nations Human Rights Council voted overwhelmingly October 16 to endorse the recommendations of the Goldstone Report, the biased anti-Israel report on the Gaza war mandated by the unhrc. The report concluded that Israel’s 2008-2009 military operation against Hamas was actually aimed at Gaza residents as a whole and was an illegitimate exercise of “collective punishment.” The Wall Street Journal noted that “by attempting to criminalize Israel’s strategy of crippling Hamas, the report in effect declared the entire antiterrorism campaign to be a war crime” (Oct. 19, 2009).
Asia
Following Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s three-day visit to Beijing in mid-October, the future of Russia-China relations looks bright. The trip included the 14th regular Chinese-Russian prime ministers’ meeting between Putin and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, which saw the signing of 12 agreements on such issues as natural oil, aerospace, nuclear energy and customs clearance. “China-Russia relations have reached a historic high and are marching towards a higher level,” Wen said. The leaders also forged a framework for a mammoth energy deal to send 70 billion cubic meters of natural gas from west Siberia to China. This amount would vault China to being Russia’s single biggest natural gas customer. Underscoring the unprecedented strategic mutual trust, Moscow and Beijing also signed a pact to notify each other of any ballistic missile or carrier rocket launches.
During a summit of 16 Asian nations in Thailand October 24 to 25, a solid base was created for a future trade bloc among Asian nations. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (asean) declared that it agrees in principle to creating a free economic zone on the continent. The free-trade area would be called the East Asia Free Trade Area and include asean and its neighbors. The goal set by asean is economic integration by 2015. Asia sees Europe uniting and is responding in like manner to counter Europe’s rise.
An EU-sponsored report on the Georgia war was presented to senior EU diplomats and the Russian and Georgian ambassadors to the Union on September 30. The study concluded that Georgia, not Russia, started the 2008 war. The report supplies further evidence that a deal was likely struck between Germany and Russia over Georgia and Eastern Europe. Both Germany and Russia are looking to secure their shared border so they can pursue their imperialistic aims elsewhere.
Capitalism and democracy are losing favor in the former Soviet states of Eastern and Central Europe, according to a poll published on November 2. Most respondents reported a stronger feeling of economic comfort under communism. The poll shows that the Kremlin’s efforts to pry Kiev away from the West and toward Russia are paying off: Ukrainians in the survey gave capitalism the lowest approval rating of any country, with only 36 percent saying they approved.
China sent the clearest signal yet that it might scale back lending to the U.S. when on November 11 the Chinese Central Bank indicated it would consider allowing the dollar to fall against the yuan. The change in policy—at a time when America is running the largest deficits in world history—could have major ramifications for the U.S., sending interest rates soaring and the dollar plummeting.
Latin America/Africa
Continuing its incursion into Latin America, in October Russia signed a $22 million agreement with Ecuador, covering energy, trade and military equipment. This followed Ecuador’s $1 billion cash-for-oil deal with China. Russia’s march into Latin America continues as the U.S. loses its foothold.
Colombia agreed on October 30 to give the U.S. military access to bases, the ability to use major international civilian airports, and diplomatic immunity for its personnel and defense contractors for the next 10 years. A leading opposition senator in Colombia said the deal amounted to U.S. occupation of his country. Fidel Castro said it was Washington’s annexation of Colombia. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who was already upset with Bogotá over a decreased supply of natural gas, broke off diplomatic relations, saying Colombia could be used as a platform for U.S. attacks against Venezuela; he then put 15,000 troops on the border. Chile and Brazil also expressed concern.
The U.S.-brokered deal for exiled Honduran President Manuel Zelaya to return home did not materialize. It required that the Congress and Supreme Court approve President Zelaya’s reinstatement, which both had already rejected once.
Ethiopia requested emergency food aid for 6.2 million people on October 22 due to a prolonged drought. This comes 25 years after a famine aggravated by Communist policies killed 1 million people. Eighty percent of Ethiopia’s population lives off the land, and agriculture makes up most of the country’s exports.
After a three-week boycott, on November 5, the Movement for Democratic Change renewed its participation in the unity government in Zimbabwe—or, as Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai put it, “suspended our disengagement.” The unity government remains as unstable as ever, however, with President Robert Mugabe wielding the only real power in the country.
Anglo America
A rising trend of domestic terrorism is evident in the United States. In September, Michael Finton of small-town Illinois, a red-haired convert to Islam and fan of American Taliban fighter John Walker Lindh, attempted to blow up a federal building in Springfield. On October 21 a defiant Tarek Mehanna, of upscale Sudbury, Massachusetts, appeared in federal court, charged with plotting a “holy war” of murdering shoppers in American malls, assassinating two prominent politicians, and killing troops in Iraq. A week later, in Dearborn, Michigan, federal agents shot and killed radical Ummah Islamist leader Luqman Abdullah at a warehouse as he and his followers were resisting arrest for illegal possession and sale of firearms and stolen goods.
In early November, Najibullah Zazi of New York was arrested and indicted in an al Qaeda bombing plot; Betim Kaziu of Brooklyn was arrested and accused of plotting with al Qaeda to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan; and Hosam Maher Hussein Smadi of Dallas attempted to car-bomb an office building. Earlier in the year, a former Boy Scout and army veteran confessed that he had fed information about Long Island’s railroads and subways to al Qaeda; three illegal immigrants from Macedonia were convicted of conspiring to murder soldiers in Fort Dix, New Jersey, back in 2007; and three Americans were indicted of plotting to explode two synagogues in the Bronx.
This domestic terrorism trend exploded in a bloody massacre on November 5, when Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan murdered 14 (including an unborn child) and wounded more than 30 more in seven minutes at Fort Hood, Texas, the largest U.S. military base in the world. The killer was a Muslim who had numerous Islamist extremist ties.
Thanks to the indebted U.S. government spending more than a trillion dollars to ward off the effects of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy technically came out of recession in the third quarter of 2009 with 3.5 percent growth. However, home prices dropped unexpectedly, the dollar continued to plunge in value, and the official national unemployment rate hovered at a 26-year high—above 10 percent—as millions of Americans received extended and then re-extended unemployment benefits lasting up to 73 additional weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. chalked up a $176 billion budget deficit to start its 2010 fiscal year in October and the Associated Press reported on October 20 that one in six Americans lives below the poverty line.
But perhaps the most important economic indicator—honesty—dove in October as it was revealed that Americans were defrauding the programs meant to stabilize the economy. About 100,000 applications to the first-time homebuyers tax credit were suspect, with thousands of people filing for credit for homes they had not yet purchased, thousands more filing even though they owned homes, and hundreds of applicants under age 18—and as young as 4. Fraudulent claims may have been made for half a billion dollars of the credit.
In late September, President Barack Obama effectively surrendered America’s economic sovereignty at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, according to columnist Dick Morris. Participating nations agreed to subject their economic policies and programs to the International Monetary Fund, where the U.S. has only one vote—as opposed to Europe’s five.
The Obama administration and its political party also came under fire for reportedly using access to the White House and top officials as rewards for campaign donors and fundraisers. However, the practice is nothing new. “Every time, they say it’s going to be different,” a top aide in one of the former administrations said. “It’s never different.”
The Washington Times reported in mid-October that the Obama White House had relaxed control over missile and space technology sales to China, canning the 1999 Defense Authorization Act. The act had required the president to oversee and sign off on certain technology exports to China. The now-defunct practice was instituted after China had surreptitiously obtained American technology that improved its long-range missiles.
On October 10, the president delivered a keynote speech to homosexuals. Tens of thousands of activists traveled to the capital for a pro-homosexual march the day before Obama headlined a fundraising dinner for the movement’s largest activist group, the so-called Human Rights Campaign. Many homosexuals at the march were upset Obama has not done more to promote their special interest. Homosexuals at the march demanded that the president do more for them, including repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, allow them to serve openly in the military, and legalize homosexual unions.
While America nominally came out of recession in late 2009, the UK could not even claim that token victory. London, which has printed and spent huge sums to keep its indebted economy afloat, announced in November it would spend almost £40 billion (us$67 billion) in a second bailout of two of the nation’s biggest banks and that it would increase its bond-purchase plan by £50 billion (us$84 billion). In spite of desperate measures and the Bank of England printing up £175 billion (us$292 billion), Britain continues to experience its longest recession on record.
