When the Cold War ended, the glittery idea of a “new world order” came into fashion. Many envisioned a more cooperative, unified globe on the horizon. “Tolerance is the alpha and omega of a new world order,” said Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in June of 1990. He advocated troop cuts, anti-weapons treaties, one world economy, increased global trade, a global communal security structure—a sunshiny, join-hands-around-the-world future.

U.S. President George H.W. Bush evoked the theme when ordering troops to punish Saddam Hussein’s Iraq for attacking Kuwait. The Gulf War, he said, was a marvelous example of squashing offensive use of force, promoting collective security, and cooperating among the world’s great powers. He used the phrase “new world order” no fewer than 42 times between the summer of 1990 and the end of March 1991. Critics saw it as ominous code for something else: unchallenged American global dominance. After all, the Soviet Union’s collapse had left the U.S. the last remaining superpower, towering over all other nations.

It was in this political climate that the Trumpet magazine launched in 1990—20 years ago this coming February. What I find noteworthy about that is this: Among all the forecasts we have made in our analysis of world events over two decades, perhaps the one that has appeared more frequently than any other is that the United States would weaken to the point of being completely eclipsed as a world power.

Demonstrating the Trumpet’s political neutrality, this forecast has remained constant through two Republican and now two Democratic presidencies. For most of these 20 years, it has been a stubbornly contrarian view.

Nevertheless, we have held it because it is guided by biblical prophecy, consistent with the understanding elucidated by Herbert W. Armstrong in The United States and Britain in Prophecy. Year after year we have tracked evidence of this national decline in several areas, including the quality of leadership, foreign relations and diplomacy, the will to use military power effectively, political and corporate integrity, economic vitality, industrial capacity, character and morality, family stability, physical and mental health, race relations, education, and spiritual well-being. In all of these areas and more, poisonous seeds have been sown; poor choices have accumulated; sins have mounted—and the resulting prophesied curses have grown sterner.

In recent times—particularly the past 14 months, amid financial crisis—the evidence has grown so overwhelming that this reality is now becoming accepted more generally: America is the incredible shrinking superpower.

But take a moment to consider the Trumpet’s pronouncements over the years and view them as vindication of our biblical model of predictive analysis. Here we’ll look at just a few, on this single issue of America’s degeneration, relating to the biggest issues facing the nation today.

In one of our earliest editions, August 1990, we pointed to corruption in business that would portend far greater problems to come. Referring to the prophecy in Micah 2:1-2, we wrote how some businessmen are “continually devising evil,” including “legalized robbery.” “It is happening to people all over the nation right now. Look at the leveraged buyouts of businesses and junk bond takeovers which have devastated the economic climate of the entire world. It is all based on greed and the ‘get’ way of life that Mr. Armstrong used to thunder about! … It is considered ‘good business’ today to make money and not worry about how you got it. … Sometimes we fail to see just how very bad the economy of the United States is. Micah is telling us that the ruin is going to be horrible in every way!” (emphasis mine throughout).

“People look at the surface of the economy and of their society. On the surface everything looks good,” the November 1991 edition said. “Society looks so good to most people, as if it could last for thousands of years. But it is so badly eaten by the ‘moths,’ that a little pressure will cause it to fall apart”—referring to the prophecy of Hosea 5:12. “That is the condition of the U.S. and British economies today—right now! They are almost ready to collapse—like a moth-eaten coat! … This verse explains why people will believe the economy and their society is strong until they actually see it collapse!”

“The U.S. economy has helped to fuel the whole world’s economy. When it collapses, it will impact forcefully on the whole world,” we wrote in June 1992. The Trumpet’s economic warnings grew stronger over the years as America grew more overleveraged and indebted. “Countries, just like individuals, can become addicted to credit! In order to maintain a high standard of living, America has become increasingly dependent upon foreign credit to pay its bills, piling debt upon debt, until it has mortgaged itself to the hilt!” we wrote in August 1997. “The primary danger is that addiction to foreign credit finally gives foreigners complete control over the debtor nation!” We warned about what would happen when foreign investors eventually lost confidence in the U.S. dollar: “For Japan and other foreign creditors to sell extensive amounts of U.S. treasury bills would be similar to a bank cutting off the credit line of a heavily indebted individual who relies on borrowed money to pay his bills, and then demanding immediate repayment of the outstanding loans. … Simply put, if early repayment of these loans are demanded through a massive sell-off of foreign-owned bonds, the United States would be unable to pay the face value of the bonds, let alone the interest! There is a mortgage on America—and foreigners hold that mortgage ….” You can read more of the Trumpet’s economic forecasts, and how they have since proven accurate, in Robert Morley’s article “Right on the Money.”

Another enormous concern for America today is the nation’s war efforts in the Middle East. In this light, our editor in chief’s analysis of the 1991 Gulf War is interesting to revisit. One of Herbert Armstrong’s strongest assertions after World War ii was that “America has won its last war.” Every military conflict the U.S. has been involved in since has backed up that statement. But then, shortly after beginning a ground invasion in Iraq in 1991, the Bush i administration claimed victory in the war. Gerald Flurry strongly challenged that assessment. “The truth is we won a battle in Kuwait. We did not win a war. The job was left unfinished,” he wrote in the Trumpet’s May 1991 issue. “Saddam Hussein is still in power—even stronger in some ways—and has turned Iraq into a killing field. Isn’t [that] a sign we didn’t win the war? That we lacked the will to win as it says in Leviticus 26:19?” What the U.S. did was essentially kick a massive problem down the road. “This will probably plague and haunt President Bush and America for the rest of our lives!” he wrote.

Mr. Flurry was most critical of how, after encouraging the Kurds and Shiites to rise up against Saddam Hussein, the Bush administration abandoned them. Hussein then restarted his murderous rampage against them, creating a humanitarian disaster. Mr. Flurry called this “the greatest betrayal in U.S. history.” “President Bush’s ‘new world order’ has brought some of the greatest shame on our nation’s history!” he wrote. “American leaders say the U.S. has no UN mandate to interfere in Iraq on the refugees’ behalf. This statement alone shows that we lack the will to use our power for a just cause. And if the Iraqi refugee crisis isn’t a just cause, nothing is!”

This judgment, written over 18½ years ago, has played out in America’s foreign policy to this day, with the president announcing his plan to exit Afghanistan before even sending troops into battle: “America still fears getting bogged down in a Vietnam-type civil war in Iraq. Even after we had them almost defenseless! That is because God has broken the pride of our power—our will to win!” (ibid.).

The truth in this assessment became even plainer after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Rather than going after the world’s number-one state sponsor of terrorism—Iran—America struck elsewhere. “By striking Afghanistan, the U.S. angers virtually no one. Go any further, however, and the issue is not nearly so tidy. Make Iran a target, for example, and you’re also picking a fight with its allies, most notably Russia,” we wrote in November 2001. “While the U.S. wants to eliminate terrorism and is becoming much more aggressive in trying to do so, its efforts will fall short. It frankly does not have the necessary will to tackle the enormity of the problem!” The accuracy of this assessment is evidenced by how, in the more than eight years since, Iran has only grown stronger, and Afghanistan continues to suck dry America’s military might.

In January 2000, Mr. Flurry showed how the U.S. was suffering from a deficit in strong leadership. “For a nation to be great, it must have a great leader. Everything revolves around a strong leader who will lead the people to face the necessary sacrifices and hard truths,” he wrote. “Today our people want to hear ‘smooth things’ and ‘deceits.’ It’s the only way a leader can get elected.” The elections since—including three for president—have revealed a steep slide even further down that dangerous slope. The American people “are too engrossed in self to ever have the will to remain a superpower,” Mr. Flurry continued. “It won’t be long before we have to face reality. We are a phony superpower waiting for disaster, if we don’t awaken.”

Then, referring to specific issues like the Gulf War and the handover of the Panama Canal, Mr. Flurry made another prescient statement: “The American people are being bombarded with foreign-policy surrenders on the part of their leaders!”

As we approach the end of this age of man, which will culminate in the Second Coming and the beginning of a new and wonderful world, America is fulfilling the Bible’s description of its decline in finer and finer detail. This should build our faith in the certainty of the ultimate outcome prophesied in Scripture and described in The United States and Britain in Prophecy. God has opened our understanding of these events in advance for several important reasons. It’s up to us to take advantage of it.

Look for more retrospective on the Trumpet’s history in the days ahead, and in the coming 20-year anniversary issue this coming February. And to see how these forecasts build on the 50-year track record of accurate predictive analysis accrued in the pages of the Plain Truth newsmagazine under Herbert W. Armstrong, order a free copy of our “He Was Right!” issue, or read it online.